110BB downswing $5/$10(stats check + analysis)

[helpmeout]

VPIP 26.4

I figure I am playing too many weak pocket pairs and suited trash. I am trying to adapt to valuing high cards much more than multiway hands.

Do these range of hands look decent
A9+ KT+ QJ+ 88+ A6s+ K8s+ Q9s+ JTs+ (obviously + means and above)

Low pocket pairs seem to get me in trouble when there are 2 overcards. I bet get a caller, but I have no idea where I am and figure well if I'm not behind then they might outdraw me. If I show weakness on the turn they bet and I fold if I dont they showdow a pair above mine.

VPIPSB 43.27 Yeah I know very loose I use to play any suited trash any Ace pretty much any two high cards. What should I be aiming for here? 30%?

Folded SB to steal 76.34
Folded BB to steal 46.02

I think these stats arent too bad but maybe a bit loose?

Blind steal attempts 31.34

Won$WSF 39.21% this seems overly high but I have no idea what it means.

WtSD 35.7%
WonAtSD 50.59%
PFR 14.71%

Agro
Flop 2.58
Turn 2.44
River 1.91

Folded to river bet 39.77%
Checkraise 1.25%

Position stats
BB -0.16bb
SB -0.05bb

I know 110BB isnt a huge amount but I know I have been playing poorly lately and I dont want to continue losing for too much longer.

Thanks for any advice.

[stripsqueez]

i think you should be happy that your only losing .05 of a BB in the SB - i would guess that these stats are for less than say 30,000 hands

110 BB's is a pathetic amount to lose - i reckon lose 190 more and then post about it

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Gazza]

110 BB is obviously not yet a serious downswing. Your figures don't look too bad to me. A fraction looser than most players here but still withing the range for a winning player

[ QUOTE ]
Do these range of hands look decent
A9+ KT+ QJ+ 88+ A6s+ K8s+ Q9s+ JTs+ (obviously + means and above)


[/ QUOTE ]

These hands look decent depending on position. UTG I would only open 100% with 88 (and 77) and would fold most of the others most of the time (and quite a few of them all the time). On the button against a limper or limpers they are usually raising hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Low pocket pairs seem to get me in trouble when there are 2 overcards. I bet get a caller, but I have no idea where I am and figure well if I'm not behind then they might outdraw me. If I show weakness on the turn they bet and I fold if I dont they showdow a pair above mine.

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't play low pp's from the first two positions and then you won't get in this situation so much.

Maybe you need to pay attention to position more. You don't talk about it much in your post and it's crucial in this game.

quote] VPIPSB 43.27 Yeah I know very loose I use to play any suited trash any Ace pretty much any two high cards. What should I be aiming for here? 30%?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the high side but some players get by comfortably around 40. In particular you are scoring well from the SB. Still 35-40 looks a better figure for your style.

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise 1.25%


[/ QUOTE ]

Looks quite low. I have over 2%. You should be checkraising decent flops from the blinds a lot.

Regarding the other stats: Slightly loose in the blinds, PFR looks good and whilst some players have higher AF this is not so easy to achieve with a VPIP of 26 (mine are similar with a vpip 25, pfr 16).

So perhaps you can tighten up pre flop a small amount (especially if you are cold calling) but most of the profit in this game comes from postflop play

Gazza

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
Do these range of hands look decent
A9+ KT+ QJ+ 88+ A6s+ K8s+ Q9s+ JTs+ (obviously + means and above)

[/ QUOTE ]

Position is extremly important in SH. First in from button you can raise almost any trash and its EV+ (dont do it, just saying position is important). UTG there is not that many hands that are raisable.

They way u asked, I got a feeling you havent thought about this a lot, but maybe u have.

[helpmeout]

Those are just a general range of hands I'd play of course position is important.

I raise ATo KJo QJo 88 UTG

I limp with the suited hands against a few limpers.

I usually go for a steal with Axs A7o K5s K8o Q9o etc depends on who is in the blinds.

[kiddo]

When u have enough hanbds, say 50K or something, look at Position Stats in Pokertracker. Could help u fold some hands that doesnt play well. Helped me a lot.

[Vaftrudner]

You don't want to hear this, but 110 BB is very common, everyone have that and very often as well. It's nothing you can do about and nothing to worry about. >200 is also common, and as stripsqueez wrote; when you're loosing more then 250-300, then you could have a problem. /v

[naphand]

The size of downswings is related to style of play. Kiddo posted the calculation of expected swings based on win rate and variance (as SD). It will be in the archives by now so I reproduce it below for the new folks.

First of all, you must realise you need meaningful figures to do this (sample size) and secondly you need to realise that you cannot stop swings from happening. It is affected by the type of games you play and your win rate. Personally, I have only had 2-3 downswings of over 200 BB in pushing 2 years of on-line play, so that is my mark to start paying attention to my game and looking for bad habits. But I don't regularly see aggressive games. For a more aggro player like Strip, playing in more aggro games 300 BB is clearly more relevant.

Here is the post:

On page 45 in Malmuths "Gambling Theory and other topics" we have two equations:

LL = (WR)*(N) - 3*(SD)* square root(N)

N = ((3*SD)/(2*WR)) * ((3*SD)/(2*WR))

(* means "times".... if n is 16 the square root of N is 4, I think "square root" is the right english expression, but not sure)

LL = is the lowest limit your bankroll can get in BB.
N = number of hours when this will happen.
SD= standerdeviation in BB.
WR= win rate in BB.

(You dont have to use BB, you can use $ instead, but use same in all equations)

If your win rate is 4BB and SD 15BB you will get (2nd equation first):

N = ((3*15)/(2*4)) * ((3*15)/(2*4)) = 31,64 hours

LL = (4*31,64) - (3*15*5,625) = - 126,56BB

That is, we can be sure "for all practical purposes" (Malmuths expression, p. 31.... if you only want to be 95% sure you can use 1,64 instead of 3 in both equations) that with a winrate of 4BB/h and SD =15, you will maximum lose 126,56BB and it will happen after 31,64 hours.

If you have the same SD but only winning 2BB/hour you will get:

N = 126,56 hours
LL = 253 BB.

If you won 6BB/h we would get:

N = 14 hours
LL = 84 BB

As we can see, winrate is a very big factor in deciding the size of your bankroll.

(But of course, this is an average, if you are sitting at a long number of LAG-tables, your SD will go up, if you are sitting with good players your winrate will go down)

[WackityWhiz]

Pretty interesting stuff... I plugged my numbers in there from 2/4,3/6 and 5/10 and got 41.67 hours and -191 BB with a win rate of 4.61 and a SD of 19.84.

What numbers did the rest of you have?

[kiddo]

One thing to remember: If u are sitting at a table with a lot of aggressive players never folding, your actual Standard Deviation for those hours can me MUCH bigger then your average SD that you find in PokerTracker. That means, if your downswing is happening against theses kind of players it can be higher then then your calculation says.

Im with Naphand. 2 years online and only 2 +200BB downswings.

But this was at 5/10 and lower. Now I play at 10/20 SH which is more aggressive, and at the beginning of this month I won 500BB in a short time, making me think that there are bigger downswings then +200BB waiting for me.