KK. raise the turn when behind? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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cnfuzzd

11-24-2004, 12:57 AM

I havent seen UTG or MP2 get out of line, seems like standard players, although ive got mp pegged as a little bit more loose. Also, Sfer was sitting at this table, which was very wierd since i thought he was at 2-4. I had to check and make sure i hadnt accidently clicked the wrong limit tab again.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)
1
Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero raises, 1 fold, MP2 calls, 4 folds, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) J/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif (5 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets, Hero....?

I think im behind to QJ, or a weakly played AQ/AJ. Im giving myself around 9 outs against QJ and 6 vs aces up. Clearly, im not folding, but i should certainly be raising here, right?

peace

john nickle

StellarWind

11-24-2004, 01:22 AM

I think I see 12 outs versus QJ, ignoring the other players.

Raising the turn might be good for you if your opponents correctly fold the various cards (K, T, 8, Ax) that are clouding your outs against UTG+1.

The problem is that probably won't happen. Instead they will make the mistake of calling. That mistake primarily benefits the guy with two pair because he has most of the pot equity.

I would probably call. I don't expect to get sufficient benefits from my raise and I'd really hate to be 3-bet with outs.

xxxxx

11-24-2004, 01:39 AM

You think he might have T9(s), or KT(s)? Then you have 1.5 outs.

You might be behind Ax, but I don't think anyone plays AJ, AQ this weakly. Slowplaying this coordinated board is a mistake. You have six outs to Ax. I'm not sure why you don't at least consider folding. When a player wakes up on the turn, that's never good. And what's MP2 have for his coldcall?

Alobar

11-24-2004, 01:56 AM

I guess I'm weak tight...I strongly consider folding. I'm not giving you 6 outs in this hand. I'd give you 3.5ish after discounting them. A raise isnt going to fold anyone you actually want to fold, except for the guy with like T7, but then hes prolly not in this hand anyway.

StellarWind

11-24-2004, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I guess I'm weak tight...I strongly consider folding. I'm not giving you 6 outs in this hand. I'd give you 3.5ish after discounting them.

[/ QUOTE ]
I might agree except it really looks like UTG+1 is playing QJ (Q8?!). There was no PFR, no flop action, and he bet out on the turn. The chance we might have 12 outs makes me feel better about our overall chances.

xxxxx

11-24-2004, 02:09 AM

If you were heads up, you might have 12 outs. There's three other players in the hand and they don't all have QJ.

cnfuzzd

11-24-2004, 02:22 AM

well, i didnt raise, but after really thought maybe i should have. However, as stellar points out, not going to do what it should, so calling is probably best. To continue..

...Hero calls, MP2 calls, UTG calls.

River: (11.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif (4 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, MP2 calls, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB
Main Pot: 14.25 BB, between UTG+1, Hero and MP2. > Split: Hero (7.12 BB), MP2 (7.12 BB).

Results in white below: 
UTG+1 has Ac Qd (two pair, aces and queens).
Hero has Ks Kc (straight, ace high).
MP2 has Qc Kd (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 7.12 BB. MP2 wins 7.12 BB. 

I think folding here would be a larger mistake than calling, but thats just me.

peace

john nickle