Bubble hand

Here's a hand I played last night in a ParadisePoker satellite (Limit Hold'em). Top 3 players get paid (50, 30, 20) and there are T8000 chips in play.


We are down to 4 players with limits at 200-400 and blinds at 100-200. I am on the button with A7o. I have T465 left. SB has posted the T100 blind and has about T390 and the BB has T600 after posting. UTG has the rest.


UTG has been bullying the table the whole tournament. He showed some J2o, T3o which he reraised preflop (yes, that's right, re-raised) and got very, very lucky on numerous hands. So let's call him loose-aggressive. He is raising 75% of his hands. The other 2 are reasonable are are trying to survive to the top 3.


UTG raises to T400. I have T465 with A7o. You can count on the blinds folding unless they have a really good hand.


What is your play? and why?


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

I would fold that hand and wait to see if one of the blinds calls. I would not want to get into a pot essentially all-in with the chip leader at this point, especially sine you definitely want to end up in the top three.

that´s a great question. i would call here. he raises 75% of the time at a full table and has all three of his opponents on the ropes because you are all jockying for 3rd. unless he has no poker instincts at all, he will raise every hand till one person is knocked out b/c he knows that he can count on scared money. whether he knows it or not, he´s actually playing correctly now. hell, i´d raise over 50% of the time if i knew that 75% of the time i could grab the blinds.


anyway, the onus at this point is on you. BB can coast into the money by just folding, folding, folding, and your relative chip/ table position is weaker than the LB (i.e. if you both fold every hand, you go out first). in other words, the other two are avoiding confrontation in the hopes that you will be blinded to death. unless one of them wakes up with a monster hand, they are happy to continue in this manner till you´re dust.


beyond your position, there´s another thing to conider here. as you stated, the raiser is a semi-maniac with a chip lead. he´s gonna raise with 72o. personally, i rate your odds of having a better hand CONSERVATIVELY at 2 to 1 in your favor. if you are the guy with T600 in front of you, things change... but alas, you aren´t. also, if you muck this hand, you have only two maybe three more chances to find something playable (the LB really dosen´t count because you are hopelessly chipped down by then).


that´s a nasty position to be in, but winning that hand could set you up for 2nd or even first place. i know at the time it feels a little too much like putting all your money on red, but in the long run this call will make you so much more money than it will cost you (here´s another way to look at it: if you lose, you lose $12, if you win, you win at least $8, and have a shot at $18 and $38. if my oddsmaking is correct, and you are a 2 to 1 favorite, this is a great bet!!!)


anyway, i hope that you called, took down the pot and then ended up trouncing the bastard.


hope that helps,


captain marlow

You rated his odds of having the best hand at 2:1, and then later said that made him a 2:1 favorite. It isn't so.


Even if he's a 10:1 favorite to have the best hand now, he won't be a 2:1 favorite over the raiser.


Against a random hand, A7o is less than a 3:2 favorite. Even if you make better aces and pairs come up no more than 10% of the time, he still won't be much (if any) more than a 3:2 favorite to win.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

How long until the limits go up? If it works out that you'll pay the 100,200 blinds and the limits go up on the next hand, then coasting into the money becomes doable. If not, or if the blinds go up BEFORE you pay them both, then you are in a much worse spot.


I would make you about a 57% favorite to win this hand, assuming the blinds both fold (which they'll probably do with less than AA or KK if you reraise all-in). When you win, you win 765 at risk of your 465. Overall, I think this makes the reraise your best play, given the raiser's loose standards and the overall situation. If you win this hand, you're almost a lock to make the money, and will have a reasonable shot and 2nd and 1st. If you just fold your way through, you might not even get 3rd, and you'll seldom do better than 3rd.


Overall, it's that dead T300 that really swings this decision.


later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Well, no Greg, the limits were not going to double in the next few hands.


I raised all-in and he showed his best hand in a long time with 66 and busted me when I did not improve.


Thanks everyone for the comments.


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

I raise. As you said, the other two will just fold and you likely have the raiser beat. Since you go into the big blind first, the T390 is actually ahead of you on chips when you consider the next betting round. The other two are going to slow way down until you or the other small stack gets knocked out. When they make the money they will take their chances.


Plus, its only $20!