Expensive Draws

[RobGW]

Here is a STT hand on PP where I busted out early. Any comments are appreciated.

***** Hand History for Game 1199942413 *****
30/60 TourneyTexasHTGameTable (NL) (Tournament 7312238) - Sat Nov 20 02:57:08 EST 2004
Table Table 12215 (Real Money) -- Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 7
Seat 2: uncphulk (845)
Seat 3: jmoney001 (650)
Seat 6: FujiHeavy (2105)
Seat 7: pudd12 (620)
Seat 8: smacau2 (800)
Seat 9: garygnu11 (2330)
Seat 10: RobGW (650)
smacau2 posts small blind (15)
garygnu11 posts big blind (30)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to RobGW [ 9h, 8h ]
RobGW calls (30)
uncphulk raises (60) to 60
jmoney001 folds.
FujiHeavy calls (60)
pudd12 folds.
smacau2 folds.
garygnu11 calls (30)
RobGW calls (30)
Easy call here.
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Th, 7c, Qd ]
garygnu11 checks.
Now what? OESD with backdoor flush possibility. 2 players behind, including the PF raiser.
RobGW bets (100)
I decided this pot was worth going for. Should I have checked it or bet more?
uncphulk raises (275) to 275
FujiHeavy calls (275)
garygnu11 folds.
Now what? I have 5:1 odds so I should at least call. If I call then that leaves me $490 and I have to decide what to do on the turn as well. I decide this is it and go for the triple up. I know they won't fold but I presume my outs are good and I am low on chips anyway. Should I have folded, called, or is the push correct?
RobGW raises (490) to 590
RobGW is all-In.
uncphulk calls (315)
FujiHeavy calls (315)
Creating Main Pot with $2025 with RobGW
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qh ]
uncphulk checks.
FujiHeavy checks.
** Dealing River ** : [ 3h ] YESS...
uncphulk checks.
FujiHeavy checks.
** Summary **
Main Pot: 2025 |
Board: [ Th 7c Qd Qh 3h ]
uncphulk balance 195, lost 650 [ Ks Kc ] [ two pairs, kings and queens -- Ks,Kc,Qd,Qh,Th ]
jmoney001 balance 650, didn't bet (folded)
FujiHeavy balance 3480, bet 650, collected 2025, net +1375 [ 7s 7d ] [ a full house, Sevens full of queens -- Qd,Qh,7s,7d,7c ] Noooo.
pudd12 balance 620, didn't bet (folded)
smacau2 balance 785, lost 15 (folded)
garygnu11 balance 2270, lost 60 (folded)
RobGW balance 0, lost 650 [ 9h 8h ] [ a flush, queen high -- Qh,Th,9h,8h,3h ]

What kind of mess did I get myself into? Am I gambling too much or is this just an unavoidable situation? I was thinking that at PP the blinds go up so quickly, that I needed something to happen so I just went for it. My overall results have been very mixed. Sometimes I win a few in a row and then I will bust out many times in a row. I am making too much of this play?

[rjb03]

I fold preflop UTG.

[lorinda]

Your initial preflop call is dismal, so let's assume you played this from the big blind.

You have now missed the flop, you may want to take a card off if you can get it cheap, but betting it now encourages people to get involved in this bigger pot, and the bet isn't going to scare anyone because often people will have hit this kind of flop, and (I'm assuming you are in lower limits) they won't be able to fold.

Even worse, you are not drawing to the nuts with one end of your straight and people WILL play AK here for 100 chips, so your jack might not even be an out.

When it gets back to you I don't think the push is that bad considering the hole you have dug yourself.

Personally I just call here, with the intention to fold if I miss, 490 chips is still plenty and I am happy to write off the loss.

You can avoid this kind of scenario by folding garbage preflop (Yes, I said garbage, the point has to get home)


Lori

[RobGW]

I agree that the flop bet was a mistake. But I didn't think that 98s was that bad a hand. I was thinking that the table was quite passive and I could see a cheap flop. Are you saying that 98s is garbage or just in this situation it is garbage. i.e. UTG or being shortstacked?

[lorinda]

If you spend your whole SNG life with the idea that 98s is garbage, you won't go far wrong.

You will very very rarely flop the nuts and will often be in a position of having to juggle pot odds with the likelihood of going out once you get to the flop.

Remember if you get all your chips in with a flush or straight draw, you're leaving 2/3rds of tourneys early.

Lori

[texasrattlers]

I agree with Lorinda. This is a really bad call pre-flop so early in the tourney. Tight is right the first 3 or so rounds of a SNG.

[Mez]

Agreed with Lorinda.

Preflop, you fold - you're just out of position. Maybe call if you're on the button with a few limpers.

On the flop, you bet, which is an aggressive play, but once you're raised and then a 3rd player cold calls (warning bells!!), you're not going to make them fold with another raise unless you have many, many more chips to push around. I'd have tried to see a cheap turn and keep in mind you make the sucker end with the J.

Try to get all of your money in when you're a 2:1 favorite, not the underdog.

[morgan180]

I'm no expert but in general I think hands like 98s are garbage. I ask myself - what do I want to make with this hand?

A pair of nines?

1. No, too easy for an overpair to come (68% of the time by turn/river)

2. No, garbage kicker, low limits A9 is a real possibility (K9 sadly too)

A flush?
No, an excellent chance of making a second best flush behind 5 other cards

A straight?
The only straight that I'd have any confidence in is 9-high.

Two pair?
I'm not paying 60 chips for a chance at a two pair flop.

So basically you're calling 60 chips for only one viable option. And since a 98 can easily make the low straight you can't really consider it an OESD and you're odds of making the straight you need are miniscule.

[adanthar]

Preflop garbage call been covered blah.

Flop: Betting 100 into a ~225 pot sucks. Stop it. Sure enough, you get raised...and then the guy behind flat calls. *Get off the train here, do not pass Go*.

I would make a crying call and then check/fold the paired turn.

[texasrattlers]

"But it's suited connectors!!!" I used to think like that (just a couple of months ago) because of Brunson's (I think) book. Then after reading a little more (Cloutier, 2+2) and analyzing my own play and that of my opponents, I realized that the "suited connectors are great" advice was costing me, and is currently costing many players, a lot of chips. I guess some pros make a lot of use of them on the tournament circuit (e.g.: Negreneau), but early in an SNG I think they are garbage.

[SmileyEH]

There is absolutely no way you could ever play 98s UTG profitably with this stack, ever.

-SmileyEH

[tigerite]

Agree with all of the above. You can only play 98s in an unraised pot with loads of limpers, even then it's mostly junk, but you play it to try to flop a monster and knock the others out. I certainly don't call with it UTG and if I did somehow make this mistake I fold to any kind of re-raise, even a minimum one.

I used to play them way too much.. and it was costing me big time.

[RobGW]

O.K. I normally see the flop with suited connectors. I thought that at the lower levels with all the weak players willing to pay off, I want to see lots of flops. I guess I am missing something here?

The consenus is that 98s should be mucked PF. I'll tighten up PF and see what happens. Thanks for the input. The weak flop bet...I normally don't do that. Why I did it here I don't know.

[yoadrians]

Agreed with the previous posters.

More to the point, also, I like the idea of picking my spot in an SNG. And when there's seven players remaining, 98s is not going to be the spot I pick, especially UTG. Heck, it's very, very tough - in my humble opinion - to even play KQs UTG early in an SNG. Risky, risky, risky.

For me, I'm pretty much playing premium hands until we get down to about 4 or 5 players. Is it nice to double up early? Sure. No one would argue that. But on PP, doubling up early doesn't guarantee you a spot in the money, that's for sure.

Pick your spots. Choose wisely, get rid of the 98s garbage right away and you'll live to fight another day when the money is within sight.