SHOULD I BET MILLION

[Smoothcall]

Assuming i had 1,000,000 and was regular winner in the biggest games in vegas that my bankroll was sufficient for. Would it be the best play to risk the whole thing on black or red at roulette if the house gave me 2 to 1 on it. Remember if i lose i will be broke and not be able to earn at that level or anywhere near it maybe never or at least for long time. In fact i can't earn at any level as you are now broke. What is the best play.

[Chizoad]

Sure but get someone else in on the action and chop up the profit/loss with them so you can still play and get your money back when the casino rigs the spin.

Chiz

[DanS]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming i had 1,000,000 and was regular winner in the biggest games in vegas that my bankroll was sufficient for. Would it be the best play to risk the whole thing on black or red at roulette if the house gave me 2 to 1 on it. Remember if i lose i will be broke and not be able to earn at that level or anywhere near it maybe never or at least for long time. In fact i can't earn at any level as you are now broke. What is the best play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about you, but the difference in utility that I get between $1 mil and $3 mil is a helluva lot smaller than $1 mil and $0, all else being equal.

Dan

[Luke]

It all depends on both your own risk aversion and the marginal utility of wealth that you will receive in regards to an additional one million dollars.

As for what you should do... that's up to you.

Luke

[mplspoker]

Obviusly, you shouldn't do the straight up bet, b/c you'll either have more or nothing.. With a million dollars you have a substantial amount and don't need to worry about bankroll contrictions for the most part......

[schroedy]

Let's make the not unreasonable assumption that by "the biggest game in Vegas" you leave out the world champion-fest that is the Bellagio's "big game." Other than that, I don't think anything higher than $100/$200 is spread too often. You will be fine with a $100,000 bankroll for that game.

You also don't say how much you can beat it by.

In any event, your best bet (if you are my age) is to take $900,000 buy a mixed fixed income (bond) fund paying 4-5%, or a tax-free situation paying a little less. (If W passes the dividend exclusion, then some kind of high dividend stock portfolio might be better.) If you are my son's age and probably are going to be playing winning poker to pass your time anyway, and you can use your winnings to live on, you might want to try real estate or index funds with some portion of your million. I would still put about 50% into fixed incomes (70 minus your age = % of your nest egg to go into fixed income).

The best solution is of course to take the best of it and lay off the risk -- or here's an even better deal -- buy the red at 2:1 and sell all of it (or more) at something profitable (for the buyer) like 1.33:1.

[Smoothcall]

See the way i look at it is i will earn that extra $2 million and then some over my lifetime if i pass on the bet that could put me in ruin.

[Smoothcall]

Listen if you want start your own post about what you would do if you had a million dollars feel free to but that is not relevent to this discussion. Don't change my question and say he doesn't need a milion bankroll and he will only play 100-200 limits cause that is not what i said. What i said was would you risk your whole one milion dollar bankroll on this bet period. Yes or no. That was the option that the casino gave you.

[evanski]

Lay off the caffeine.

-Evan

[mike l.]

yes but it will take you a whole life. definitely take the bet. you can always work your way back up from zero again pretty easily if you are that great of a player.

[Mano]

Bet half a million on red and half a million on black.

[ErrantNight]

how could you possibly think this post applies to this thread?

that said... is it a "smart" bet, numbers-wise? obviously... you're getting twice even money on a just shy of even money bet (unless you meant to say you're getting 1:1 on your money... in which case no, you shouldn't)

are you asking is it better to gamble your entire existence on worse than 50% shot simply because if you could afford to play the same odds enough times in a row you would inevitably win? no... risk/reward don't add up

if you're asking: should i make poker decisions that will more often than not, not work out, because I'll win more money in the long run by playing the same way: the answer is of course: yes. because you're not going to stop playing this hand.

[vmacosta]

[ QUOTE ]
Bet half a million on red and half a million on black.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a fantastic idea...what are the odds that green shows up anyhow?

[ErrantNight]

what are the odds this is an absolutely retarded post?

[Smoothcall]

Please elaborate oh wise one.

[ErrantNight]

i did elsewhere.

in short: this is a pure hypothetical with very little value.

it comes down to a value judgment, which i'll express thusly:

is Fantastic Betting Opportunity > Greater Than 50% Chance I Will Become Destitute

further, I think your question is disingenuous, because I suspect it has to do with your other question about whether it's always correct to push +ev edges... and no answer you derive here will help you out

if it isn't, and you're really just curious about the psychological makeup of this forum, your inquiry is even MORE worthless

[Smoothcall]

What are you saying? You questions are gibberish and not sure what you are talking about. Read the original post again if you are having problems responding to it. Its very simple question. Not sure why you are having so much trouble with it. Think before you write gibberish again.

[ErrantNight]

none of those questions are gibberish. go back, read, use that hat rack above your neck, and read my other response to your query...

to answer your question another way, however:

if i told you i would flip a coin, and you could call either side, and i would pay you 2 dollars every time you were right, but it would cost you a dollar to play, and 4% of the time the coin would magically land on its side... would you play?

of course you would. everyone would. that's a fantastic game.

that's the question you're asking.

only you happen to preface it by saying... what if you go broke if you miss that one bet?

that context doesn't change the fact that it's a great betting situation. it merely becomes a matter of subjective value... is this situation good for me?

[Smoothcall]

That is the what makes the question interesting of whether it would be worth risking your life savings on a bet that is clearly a good bet. It be obvious to most but you that this is accepted when i ask the question. Otherwise how could the answer be anything but yes?

[Smoothcall]

It's not important why i asked the question. It was an argument i was having with a buddy of mine for your information. Not that its any of your business. So wanted to see what others thought.

The intersting thing is it worth passing up on great betting opporntunity when you have way the best of it cause if you lose your cannot earn anymore as a poker player at that level where you could have won that 2 million playing anyway now you cant make anything.

[ErrantNight]

it might be an interesting thing to argue over with your friends, preferably while drunk/stoned... but it's not otherwise a terribly interesting question.

it's like the "what would you do for work if you had a million dollars?" question they lampoon in Office Space.

I suppose others might find this quasi-philosophical issue to be of interest... but I doubt it.

Hey man, if I had 12 bajillion dollars, and I could spend all of it today, but if I wanted to keep it tomorrow, I'd have to [censored] my mother in the ass, and then each successive day I would have to piss out hundred dollar bills until a week had passed, but then for a month everything cost 15 times what it should cost, but then after that I had to live for a year on 10 dollars and whatever I could get begging, would it be worth it so that I could spend whatever was rest of that 12 bajillion dollars after that? And also, you get to have sex with two chicks at the same time at some point.

[Smoothcall]

It is not my interest to entertain you. It was to see what other people thought. I am not an entertainer. If you want me to do that pay me then we'll talk i'll find out what oyu like and i'll be more entertaining for you. I am not a clown i'm not here to amuse you until you hire me. If the post doesnt interest you than you shoukld of past on. Not be troll and tell me about your possible edipus(probably misspelled) complex.