Hand Question

[jackdaniels]

This happened a week ago so details are a bit fuzzy..

Early in 2 table SNG - Im speeding around with not much and getting some chips (pretty tight table early on).

UTG I raise (3XBB) - folded to BB who min re-raises. I'm holding K10 spades. I call.

Flop comes AJ6 (A and J of spades). He pushes. Now there was about 300 in the pot and he pushed for about 1200 more. I folded. Now I'm not sure what he had, but figured my outs were good (any spade or any Q) - just wasn't sure I wanted to play for all my chips this early on a draw - even with correct pot odds. I ended up winning that SNG, so ultimately I know I made the right decision FOR THAT PARTICULAR GAME. But I'm wondering if this is a -EV play in the long run.

I put the guy on AA (with his min-raise - prolly hoping I re-raise so he can push pre-flop)giving him a set on the flop so even if I made my hand, he could re-draw to a boat. Alternatively, he could have had a smaller pair, using the Stop N Go (potentially giving me additional outs if my King hits - but I didn't trust that line of thought.)

Honestly, I really didn't expect him to push the flop when I called his min-raise. Any thoughts on calling here? Do you guys try to snap a bluff (if I put him on that) with a draw but no pair for all your chips?

Any help appreciated.

[jslag]

I think your fold was fine given that he pushed.

If he has KK/QQ/AJ, you're really only a slight dog if you call.

If he has pocket pairs TT and below, you're actually a decent favorite, except against 66 of course.

I'm not so sure you're against AA here, most players would play a set of Aces slow here (not because they're good).

Question though... why are you raising KTs UTG and then calling re-raises? Save yourself the trouble and muck that preflop.

[Lloyd]

Lots of info missing for accurate analysis: buy-in amount, blinds, stack sizes in particular.

First of all, throw away KT suited when you are UTG. I don't think I'd even play KQs there - especially early in a tournament. It's a hand that will only get you in trouble, especially by raising since you will probably get smooth called by AQ and re-raised by AK. It's a recipe for disaster.

Putting your opponent on a specific hand is not the preferred method. You need to put him on a range of hands that evolves as the hand goes on. Early on that range would be pretty large, and I don't read into a mini-raise at all. I've seen way too many people, regardless of the buy-in, make a mini-raise with almost any two playable cards.

Pushing on the flop is clearly an overreaction to protecting his hand. I would put him on a pair of aces with a kicker ranging from 8 to K depending upon the buy-in and how good I thought he was. With the mini-raise, I'm assuming he could have that entire range. He could have two pair w/AJ but it's not really important since the only way you can win this hand is by improving to a flush or straight. He could also have AA or JJ but again, the only way your winning is if you hit your draw.

You are right in that all of your drawing outs (12) are probably good. You are a 1.3 - 1 underdog at this point. The pot odds are 1.25 - 1. Therefore, you don't even have pot odds to call even if you wanted to gamble. It's close, but given the possibility of a set improving to a boat taking away a couple of your outs, this is a clear fold for me.

[jackdaniels]

Like I said, I was speeding around in the early round - as I had reads on most of the players (being tight in the early goes - with quite a few simply sitting out) - without so many reads (lucky to land that table) - I would prolly muck and wait myself, playing a more standard opening game. With my raise I was well prepared to fold to any significant show of strength - but the min raise did get me thinking. The blinds were 15-30 (on Stars) $20 buy in. I was ahead as I pretty much dominated the 10-20 blind round. Ahead by prolly 400 chips. This meant that I wasn't dead if I called and made a mistake, but wasn't sure I wanted to go from 1st to worst when I had reasonably thought I could outplay most of these guys at a time of MY choosing (not theirs). It did boil down to me thinking I was against a set of Aces (or Jacks or Sixes - same thing really) and not wanting to make my hand just to lose on the re-draw. But the original question still hangs - does one call (for all their chips) in the early going to a nut draw when there is a good chance that they are up against a Stop N Go?

Thanks for the replies so far.