Kevin
11-23-2004, 12:58 PM
About 180,000 hands in my PT database. Through the first 155,000, I was at mid 2's in bb/100, however, the last 5 weeks (about 25,000 hands), I have been just above break even (about 0.2 bb/100.) the reason I ask this question is that I just read a post in small stakes that at 10,000 hands, there is a 10-20% chance that a winning player would lose money or break even. It seems at 25,000 hands, it should start to net itself out right.
Sets are winning at a 61% clip during this time frame which seems light - but I am not totally sure. Since so much is dumped into the pots on sets, if they lose at a rate greater than expected and you lose that 7-8% of the investment vs pulling the pot, that seems like it could be the difference. Stats look almost exactly the same as the previous 155,000 hands, but results are much, much different.
Not a bad beat post, not a whining, poor me post - just wanted to get some feedback as to if I need to make some serious introspection into the game at 25,000 hands of break even. If it is 10/20% that a winning player can play break even or lose at 10,000 hands, it seems like by 25,000 hands, it should look more accurate.
Thanks,
Kevin
Sets are winning at a 61% clip during this time frame which seems light - but I am not totally sure. Since so much is dumped into the pots on sets, if they lose at a rate greater than expected and you lose that 7-8% of the investment vs pulling the pot, that seems like it could be the difference. Stats look almost exactly the same as the previous 155,000 hands, but results are much, much different.
Not a bad beat post, not a whining, poor me post - just wanted to get some feedback as to if I need to make some serious introspection into the game at 25,000 hands of break even. If it is 10/20% that a winning player can play break even or lose at 10,000 hands, it seems like by 25,000 hands, it should look more accurate.
Thanks,
Kevin