Moving-in vs Calling all-in on flush draws...

[DonkeyKong]

ESPN classic showed the 1998 and 1999 US Poker championships last night. Both came down to huge pots with one guy going for a flush draw.

Negreanu called all-in with a 4-flush & 1 live over card (Q) vs TPTK. O'Neil Longson moved all-in with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif with a 4-flush on the flop and ended up losing to 2-pair when his flush card didn't come.

Moving all-in with a flush draw vs calling all-in with a flush draw?? Both were heads up. Negreanu was almost even in chip stack and O'Neil was behind... In these cases, the caller won (Negreanu) and the mover lost (Longson).

comments on calling a big all-in with with 9-12 outs? (His Q was live so he did have 12 outs)...

note: apologies for being off topic relative to Hillary Duff

[krille]

Im sure Danny Boy had pot-odds

[DonkeyKong]

No, I don't think pot odds were there. I didn't TIVO it so I can't go back and review but Negreanu and Bonetti both had very large stacks at the start of the hand. Negreanu said in the interview afterwards that he didn't think he could beat John Bonetti if he folded as Bonetti was too good heads-up if given a decent chip lead. Danny said he thought this would be his best chance at winning the tournament and he had decided to go all the way with this hand when he raised Bonetti on the flop prior to Bonetti pushing all-in.

It seems to me after seeing a lot of Negreanu on TV that he really gambles it up and is not really all that focused on +EV plays. He has made some comments in his writings that in effect says he doesn't mind taking the worst of it if the reward could be a big chip stack when pot odds are pretty questionable. Big laydowns aren't a part of his strategy.

Negreanu is perhaps the best tournament player in the world so watching what he does and says is pretty interesting... This is obvious but I think there is an important lesson that taking questionable pot odds in a tournament is more often right than you would otherwise think given the power you have when you do convert and get the larger stack... You will blow out early out of a lot of tourneys but you will have a big stack in many...

To me, this is interesting because it seems to go right in the face of the '2+2 way' of taking +EV plays and avoiding -EV plays... comments appreciated

[ToledoTommy]

Would it be different if you had the 4-flush and two overcards, e.g. Fossilman's all-in against Mike the Mouth at the WSOP? Is that the right move because 1) Fossilman moved instead of called and/or 2) he had two overcards to the board?

[potted plant]

It's much better to move in with the flush draw than to call all in. By pushing you have 33% chance of winning the pot if called depending on the board and you also have good folding equity to go with that. Probably enough to make the play at least a coin flip or better for you to win the pot.

By calling the all in, you are most likely beat at the moment if you haven't paired and have a 33% chance of winning the pot.

[DonkeyKong]

Fossilmans all-in followed his large pre-flop re-raise so the pot was already pretty big. He could have check-raised all-in but that reduces the chance of a fold by the Mouth. That was an interesting hand. Has Fossilman ever written here at length of what his thinking was?

It seems like he hit the flop too hard to do anything but bet big. Unless Mike hit a set or 2-pair, he was over 50/50 to make his draw... That was one of the best hands of the tournament.