JTs in the BB, strange river [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Chris Daddy Cool

11-23-2004, 10:05 AM

Typicalish party 15 game. the CO in this hand is a world class idiot. nate tha great is at this table as well, but he's not involved in this hand no read on any of the other players.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (10 SB) K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

I check here with the intention of checkraising UTG+1's bet, but that didn't pan out.

Turn: (5 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

I'm strictly in check/call mode now, but whatever, it gets checked through.

River: (5 BB) A/images/graemlins/spade.gif (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 bets, MP2 calls, CO raises, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG+1 folds, MP2 3-bets, CO calls, Hero folds.

WTF am I thinking?! you may ask, that I may have made 3 mistakes on the river alone, not betting out myself. not only not 3-betting the river, but folding for one more bet after coldcalling?!

ok. thought process: i checked this river with the intention of checkraising. i had a sneaky suspicion that someone (UTG+1) would bet here and I would be able to throw in the checkraise, but once CO raised I was faced with a decision, whether to coldcall or 3-bet?

Okay let me explain why I didn't 3-bet the river. For one, it would blow out UTG+1 and MP2 and if I was up against a flush or fullhouse I would certainly be capped and that would suck. Granted I said that the CO was an idiot, but still, I don't collect as much when I'm winning and I lose more when I'm losing. I think coldcalling to induce the overcalls was the correct choice in this instance.

Now when MP2 comes to life and call/3-bets this river, I laughed out loud and typed in "omg i'm such a fish" and folded. yes that's right, folded for one bet after coldcalling 2.

this was like one of the strangest rivers I've seen.

Chris

Festus22

11-23-2004, 10:17 AM

14:1 with all 3 big flush cards on the board. So what spades did MP2 and the CO cold call with preflop? J-10 and now someone hit a royal? Surely they would have bet a draw that strong before the river. Looks more like a slowplayed Q and someone else made 2P with the ace. A flush certainly is a strong possibility as well as a boat but are they likely more than 13 out of 14 times? I wouldn't think so.

gaming_mouse

11-23-2004, 10:38 AM

CDC,

A couple questions.

1. Do you think you were correct in not calling that last river bet?

2. You made this comment about the flop:

I check here with the intention of checkraising UTG+1's bet, but that didn't pan out.

I was wondering what you were hoping to accomplish with a c/r. I don't think you're getting rid of flush draws, so who are you getting rid of that you don't want along? Or is this a raise for value?

TIA,
gm

Chris Daddy Cool

11-23-2004, 10:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
1. Do you think you were correct in not calling that last river bet?

[/ QUOTE ]

i really didn't see myself winning this hand, so i folded. will i be good 1 in 14 times? yes, probably i might, but this particular hand i didn't feel this would be one of those cases.

[ QUOTE ]
2. You made this comment about the flop:

I check here with the intention of checkraising UTG+1's bet, but that didn't pan out.

I was wondering what you were hoping to accomplish with a c/r. I don't think you're getting rid of flush draws, so who are you getting rid of that you don't want along? Or is this a raise for value?

[/ QUOTE ]

Strictly for value.

tolbiny

11-23-2004, 11:03 AM

"will i be good 1 in 14 times? yes, probably i might, but this particular hand i didn't feel this would be one of those cases"

Lol-
CDC,
you think you are probably right 1 in 14, but this isn't one of them? Your changing the parameters here- either you are good one in 14 and should call, or you aren't and you shouldn't.
I don't know about you fold- but i do know that i dislike the way you described this here. Its misleading to state that you are good 1 in 14 times, but just not this time. You know you can't win by guessing what times you are right and which you weren't.

Chris Daddy Cool

11-23-2004, 11:22 AM

ok let me rephraise that:

in order to show profit in these scenerios i need to be correct 1 in 14 times right? so i call 14 times out of 14 times i will win a net of 1 bb right? 13 times i will lose 1 bb => 13bb. 1 time i will win 14bb. thus 14-13 = 1bb profit.

however in this given case, as are many other poker decisions, you estimate that your actual chances of winning are slightly less than 1 in 14. you estimate your actual chances of winning is actually closer to 1 in 15 than 1 in 14, but it remains somewhere in between, so much to the point where a call would no longer be +EV or -EV, but just EV neutral, where calling or folding makes no difference at all.

So if I folded 14 times, I would expect a net of 0bb, and if I called 14 times, I would expect a net of 0bb, but if i called 7 times, and folded 7 times, i would still expect a net of 0bb.

so that means the only way to make a profit in these cases is to deviate from basic strategy given the circumstance, that is to make situation based decisions. in a vacuum, it doesn't matter which choice i choose, but on an indivual hand basis, i can directly effect my winrate by making the right situation based choices.

so in short, i felt in this particular case that calling would result in me losing, more often than the 14 to 1 odds i was getting. i guess that's all you really wanted to hear right?

tolbiny

11-23-2004, 11:27 AM

"so in short, i felt in this particular case that calling would result in me losing, more often than the 14 to 1 odds i was getting. i guess that's all you really wanted to hear right?"

Thats exactly what i wanted to hear (even though i knew thats what you meant originally). I just don't want an inexperienced player thinking he can manipulate odds in that way- i see it at the table all the time when people fold flush draws cause they think that its "not going to come".

CanKid

11-23-2004, 11:48 AM

Hi Chris,

[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (10 SB) K, 4, Q (5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, CO checks.

I check here with the intention of checkraising UTG+1's bet, but that didn't pan out.

[/ QUOTE ]

You mentioned you were check raising for value? I don't see the value here, if there's a spade draw among the large feild in this hand you have 6 clean outs to the nuts, and not much going otherwise.

I would have called the river since it's probably just a close call between you and MP2.

Danenania

11-23-2004, 02:48 PM

Fish Daddy,

I think this fold is okay. But not by much.

dachord

11-23-2004, 03:00 PM

I read and re-read your betting strategy, and just don't agree with it. A check raise for value? A strong bet here might have worked more to your advantage, but since you didn't, I agree with CanKid and would have called on the river.

sthief09

11-23-2004, 03:04 PM

Chris

I think that fold is TERRIBLE. keep in mind that everyone's standards have probably gone down. trips seem like a monster, no one bet which kind of indicates no flush draw a little. for ONE MORE BET I think you should pay this off

tech

11-23-2004, 03:15 PM

What's up CDC? Long time no see. I know you know this, but you better be DAMN sure of your read before you throw this away for one bet closing the action on the river. I can see you dragging this enough to make it profitable.

Chris Daddy Cool

11-23-2004, 06:21 PM

mp2 has J /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif for the frush.

CO, who was a big fat idiot, had A /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

bakku

11-23-2004, 06:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
mp2 has J /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif for the frush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate that word.

spamuell

11-23-2004, 07:13 PM

Hey CDC,

The flop, turn and river action after you check I understand (but don't like your fold at all for the reasons that sthief said about people overvaluing their hands significantly once the flop and turn get checked through and you getting 13:1), but what I don't get is where you say:

[ QUOTE ]
i had a sneaky suspicion that someone (UTG+1) would bet here

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you literally mean you just felt he would bet here, or were you putting him on a hand like A7o? I'd usually put him on JJ-88 here, which he won't bet this river with, maybe a suited ace but usually not and if he's capable of having a suited ace or a crappy offsuit ace then he can also have 87s or something similar. So I really don't see why you would think he would bet here.