This felt so wrong, ATs in MP

[bakku]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (10 handed)
Button loves to CC with premium hands as well as marginal hands, he's not very aggressive but not passive either
SB tries to play good but is too loose and doesn't know when to slow down sometimes, but is probably a slightly winning player
MP3 is incredibly loose and a calling station

Preflop: Hero is CO with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Flop: (16 SB) A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (16 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, Hero calls.

River: (29 BB) 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero folds, Button calls.

Final Pot: 31 BB
<font color="green">Main Pot: 31 BB, between Button and SB.</font>

[Shillx]

I'm inclined to fold on the flop once it is 2 more back to me. I am certainly folding the turn when it is 2 more back to me. Buttons line on the flop could be a draw or a big hand. Once he raises the turn, you are drawing to 2-4 outs IMO, and you might even chop some of those times.

Brad

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm inclined to fold on the flop once it is 2 more back to me. I am certainly folding the turn when it is 2 more back to me. Buttons line on the flop could be a draw or a big hand. Once he raises the turn, you are drawing to 2-4 outs IMO, and you might even chop some of those times.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Brad,

I never had to call 2 cold on the flop or I definitely would have folded.

On the turn, I'm getting 23:2 when it's 2 more to me and I'm liking my gutshot outs with the way the action is going.

[Shillx]

My mistake, you are correct on the flop play. You are drawing to a one card straight here. If you think that you can get a lot of bets from the villians on the river, then I like the call. If the villians will slow way down with a gutshot 4-straight on board (even more so if it puts a 3-flush on board), then I'm not so sure.

Brad

[SCfuji]

i know you arent closing the action and the button has been raising and capping every street prior, but you dont think your hand is worth at least one bet to showdown?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
i know you arent closing the action and the button has been raising and capping every street prior, but you dont think your hand is worth at least one bet to showdown?

[/ QUOTE ]

if the pot were tripled, he still shouldn't call.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i don't like the flop raise for two reasons, the board is very coordinated and you are likely behind SB when he leads this flop.

i really wouldn't mind call, call, calling this all the way down, damn my LAG image and all. given that you did raise this flop and you opened the floodgates, you can't fold for one extra bet each time.

and on the turn you pick up the gutshot so you cna't fold there either.

anyone who suggests calling the river needs to get his head checked.

[MicroBob]

agreed.
there is no reason to suspect it won't be raised again.
if he is closing the action then he can consider calling with his 30:1 pot-odds.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed.
there is no reason to suspect it won't be raised again.
if he is closing the action then he can consider calling with his 30:1 pot-odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

like i said. if the pot were tripled, 90:1, he still shouldn't call imo.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
i don't like the flop raise for two reasons, the board is very coordinated and you are likely behind SB when he leads this flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

So why let the draws draw for just one bet? just because SB bet out on this flop doesn't mean I'm behind him, earlier he 3-bet 55 after 2 limpers and my raise.

[ QUOTE ]
i really wouldn't mind call, call, calling this all the way down, damn my LAG image and all. given that you did raise this flop and you opened the floodgates, you can't fold for one extra bet each time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see a case being made for just calling down, I really don't know what line is best for this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
and on the turn you pick up the gutshot so you cna't fold there either.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

[ QUOTE ]
anyone who suggests calling the river needs to get his head checked.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
agreed.
there is no reason to suspect it won't be raised again.
if he is closing the action then he can consider calling with his 30:1 pot-odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Closing the action I'd still fold here with the reads I have.

[SCfuji]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agreed.
there is no reason to suspect it won't be raised again.
if he is closing the action then he can consider calling with his 30:1 pot-odds.

[/ QUOTE ] like i said. if the pot were tripled, 90:1, he still shouldn't call imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to make sure i understand this concept. if hero is closing the action for a smaller pot it would be okay to call the one bet, but with the button behind hero for any sized pot hero should fold. is this correct? i think i found myself another leak.

thanks,
fuji

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
My mistake, you are correct on the flop play. You are drawing to a one card straight here. If you think that you can get a lot of bets from the villians on the river, then I like the call. If the villians will slow way down with a gutshot 4-straight on board (even more so if it puts a 3-flush on board), then I'm not so sure.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm calling the turn here purely based on the odds the pot is laying me. Even if both villains slow down on the river if I hit, calling the turn is +EV if I have 4 outs.

[SCfuji]

ok. i guess im still clueless. ill learn eventually.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

it has nothing to do with closing the action and has everything to do with obviously not having the best hand.

[Shillx]

no. look at the action here, both 3rd and 4th are capped. both the button and the blind have monster hands. at the very worst the hero is up against A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif (and that is the losing hand). party could throw $500 into the middle and I would not call.

Brad

[SCfuji]

so hero was playing his hand purely on its straight value, correct? would anybody call down if the reads on the two villains were maniacs?

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
agreed.
there is no reason to suspect it won't be raised again.
if he is closing the action then he can consider calling with his 30:1 pot-odds.

[/ QUOTE ] like i said. if the pot were tripled, 90:1, he still shouldn't call imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

i want to make sure i understand this concept. if hero is closing the action for a smaller pot it would be okay to call the one bet, but with the button behind hero for any sized pot hero should fold. is this correct? i think i found myself another leak.

thanks,
fuji

[/ QUOTE ]

There isn't really a concept here. Chris and I are both saying this is an easy river fold because with the way the action is going coupled with my reads on the two players there is no way my hand will be good here.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
so hero was playing his hand purely on its straight value, correct? would anybody call down if the reads on the two villains were maniacs?

[/ QUOTE ]

On the flop I think there's a chance I have the best hand. On the turn I'm calling strictly trying to hit my gutshot. If the two villains were maniacs then yes, I would call.

[SCfuji]

-light dings above fuji's head- thanks for the comments upon comments upon comments.

[chesspain]

I think you played it fine--although I would curse that turn card, since the gutshot forces you to stick around and pay a gazillion more bets on the turn, after which you may have to pay even more on the river if you improve to trips or two-pair.

[Festus22]

What a hand.

Aside from maybe just calling the flop and evaluating from there, the turn is the real decision point. Would you anticipate the button raising behind you essentially turning your initial call into a 2 bet cold call? Are all 4 outs clean? I think you're probably looking at a 3-outer more often than not with a 2 2-flush board and UTG+1 happily cold calling everything.

Given you called the first single bet, I think you should have folded to the 3-bet coming back. Your ace and 10 outs almost can't be good given this action. You're getting 12:1 with a real possibility of a cap behind you giving you effectively 8:1.

[bakku]

I think you played it fine--although I would curse that turn card, since the gutshot forces you to stick around and pay a gazillion more bets on the turn

My thoughts exactly. I really wanted to fold the turn unimproved, I hated that I picked up a gutshot. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

after which you may have to pay even more on the river if you improve to trips or two-pair.

Actually, I planned on folding any non-8 river if SB bet out again.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
What a hand.

Aside from maybe just calling the flop and evaluating from there, the turn is the real decision point. Would you anticipate the button raising behind you essentially turning your initial call into a 2 bet cold call? Are all 4 outs clean? I think you're probably looking at a 3-outer more often than not with a 2 2-flush board and UTG+1 happily cold calling everything.

Given you called the first single bet, I think you should have folded to the 3-bet coming back. Your ace and 10 outs almost can't be good given this action. You're getting 12:1 with a real possibility of a cap behind you giving you effectively 8:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hi Festus,

You bring up some really good points. I really don't know whether it'd be better to just call on the flop or raise it up, perhaps someone else would like to give some reasoning here?

I didn't even think about my effective odds here, perhaps a fold really would have been better. Actually, I often overlook and forget about my effective odds, sounds like a leak in game.

[Trix]

The flop raise does nothing for you here, you cant use the info you gain from a 3bet, as the pot is very big. Your equity isn´t high enough to do it for value either, yet you can´t fold due to the size of the pot, so calling is your bets option here.

[bakku]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop raise does nothing for you here, you cant use the info you gain from a 3bet, as the pot is very big. Your equity isn´t high enough to do it for value either, yet you can´t fold due to the size of the pot, so calling is your bets option here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was looking for, thanks Trix.

[Malcom Reynolds]

party could throw $500 into the middle and I would not call.

That's 79 to 1 pot odds!!

You don't think he has a 1.25% chance of being good on the river here? Small probabilities are hard to conceptualize, but to try to make it more intuitive, that would be like in baseball, a hitter needs only 6 hits all season long to have a batting average of .00125, assuming roughly 500 at bats.

You have to literally be 98.75% sure. There is a rare chance that SB could have been overplaying KK while button was on a 500 BB downswing and is calling down. Or maybe the SB's girlfriend called and said she is cheating on on him immediately before this hand and he went on tilt. Or Button's cat started attacking the mouse.

I mean, maybe it's still close, and if the players were both rocks, extremely tight and passive, then it becomes an extremely close decision. And the play is better at 5/10.

But there comes to be a range where it is mathematically correct to call no matter how sure you are beaten, because you need to be right so extremely rarely.

I mean, you said you'd fold with $500 added, and maybe it's close, but I think that this is a CLEAR call with say $1000 added to the pot.

And if it's an error to call a $500 added pot it can't be a large one.

[Danenania]

I wouldn't have raised the flop, but I think all your turn calls were fine. You hate to see it capped behind you, but I think you can count on picking up a ton of river bets should you hit. At least 4 and as many as 8. I'd guess an average of 5 which I think gives you just the odds you need even if it gets capped. You also have to consider that unless Button has AA himself he will probably start to fear AA a little bit and maybe not cap with JJ or 99.

[tech]

Hey Bakku. You can fold this turn. It will almost certainly get capped behind you, and you have at best four outs, maybe only two. Even worse, your outs are not to the nuts.

[bakku]

I was drawing to 3 outs on the turn.

SB had a massively overplayed A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Button had J /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Danenania]

I don't think it will " almost certainly" get capped behind him. There's a good chance but I could easily see button slowing down with as good a hand as JJ for fear of AA, and he might even have something like 2 pair and be responding to SB's propensity to overplay hands.

[tech]

Given the read Bakku described, the call/cap on the flop is a dead giveaway for a set.

If I have JJ, I cap this turn 155% of the time.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

holy crap dude, where have you been?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The flop raise does nothing for you here, you cant use the info you gain from a 3bet, as the pot is very big. Your equity isn´t high enough to do it for value either, yet you can´t fold due to the size of the pot, so calling is your bets option here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly what I was looking for, thanks Trix.

[/ QUOTE ]

dude, isn't this what i told you last night and you didn't believe me? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
holy crap dude, where have you been?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey CDC. Check this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=1296888&amp;page=1&amp;view=c ollapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=1) post.

Oh, and I have a new screen name on Party. Let's see if you can guess it. I'll be the one raising your blind. /images/graemlins/wink.gif