Another bubble "do you make that call"

[Gramps]

$215 SNG on Party/Empire. Big stack has been bullying, and pushing any two cards. With UTG to be forced all-in next hand...I'm guessing big stack would fold about...0% of his hands here. After posting the BB, I have 220 left. Blinds don't go up for another orbit (to my recollection).

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed)

Hero/BB (t420)
UTG <font color="blue"> "shorty" </font> (t127)
Button (t8509)
SB (t944)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t8509 (All-In)</font>, SB folds, Hero...?

ATo is about 63% against a random hand. Shorty (who will be forced all-in next hand) has been playing "hang on" folding his stack down - looks like he will fold his SB (if he were to win his BB all-in) unless he has a premium hand (if we're still on the bubble).

Call or fold and why?

[Daliman]

just fold it. Your EV changes little if you win, LOTS if you lose.

[pindawg]

Put him in his place and call .. it's all you can do or he will continue doing this, if he's being a really bully you probally have him slightly beat or badly beat (he might be going all in with any 2 face cards or A-x). A call here could change the whole pace of the game. If anything, at least you have notes about the guy for next time.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Put him in his place and call .. it's all you can do or he will continue doing this, if he's being a really bully you probally have him slightly beat or badly beat (he might be going all in with any 2 face cards or A-x). A call here could change the whole pace of the game. If anything, at least you have notes about the guy for next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Call, 63% of the time take 9% of his stack, and put him in his place, and skyrocket your stack to over 900 chips!.

Not to mention the great note you can write even if you DO lose; "Plays his stack very well". Tuff to get that without calling.


This is what happens when $10+1er's don't learn the game before dishing out advice.

[Greg Zabawa]

I could only fathom moving in here with AA, KK, or QQ. It would be silly to risk $400 on A-10 when you could easily lose to even 72o. Make it to the money and go from there.

[tigerite]

Fold. About the only hand you could call with here is AA and "maybe" KK and even both those are debatable.

[pindawg]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Call, 63% of the time take 9% of his stack, and put him in his place, and skyrocket your stack to over 900 chips!.

Not to mention the great note you can write even if you DO lose; "Plays his stack very well". Tuff to get that without calling.


This is what happens when $10+1er's don't learn the game before dishing out advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's great. He was asking for opinions, so I gave mine. It's not a call I would make all the time or even most of the time but sometimes you gotta through the numbers out the window and just use judgement. It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.

[pindawg]

After I posted I realized this was just a STT just outside the money. I would probally fold in this situation, but if it was already down to 3 I would definately make the call.

[Gramps]

If I fold in the BB, shorty should win his BB slightly less than 1/2 the time (one of the two non-big stack players may jump in the next hand with a monster, or if big stacks kindly decides to fold UTG (probably won't), then 2nd place stack may push a random/slightly better than random hand, etc.).

Of the slightly less than 1/2 the time that shorty survives, I will be all-in first - and probably get knocked out slighty more than half the time (that's close to 25% right there of not finishing in the money)...

...of the remaining 20% or so of the time we both have surivived...etc, etc.

So by folding, I finish in the money only about 2/3 of the time (+ or - a little), and will mostly do no better than 20% for 3rd place. Given that the 2nd place stack is very short-stacked at 844 himself (after this hand), I think when you do the math, it comes out very close, since by calling with ATo and winning (the 63% of the time you do) you have a solid shot at 2nd and the 10% bump (of the times you win, you should average around 25% of the prize pool). If the 2nd place stack had something like 2,500, it's an instamuck, because even if you win you won't get 2nd often enough to justify it $EV wise...

[tigerite]

ICM: If you fold your $EV is 0.1522
If you call and win your $EV is 0.2492
If you call and lose your $EV is 0

Assuming you really are 63% then

0.63 * 0.2492 = 0.156996

So yes, you are correct to call, but it's so close in terms of EV that it's probably worth passing up on.

[Burno]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

Yeah. Call, 63% of the time take 9% of his stack, and put him in his place, and skyrocket your stack to over 900 chips!.

Not to mention the great note you can write even if you DO lose; "Plays his stack very well". Tuff to get that without calling.


This is what happens when $10+1er's don't learn the game before dishing out advice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's great. He was asking for opinions, so I gave mine. It's not a call I would make all the time or even most of the time but sometimes you gotta through the numbers out the window and just use judgement. It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are so right. Daliman is horrible at SNG's. He plays so badly people post his hand histories on websites for public ridicule.

[joker1976]

By folding, over 80% of the time someone will push next hand, I think you should call and make it 3 way, then "shorty" will lose at least 70% of the time, if he wins, you still have about 40% chance to beat the other stack 2 way and assume 40% survive next bind, , you and "shorty" will be about equal. Your overall chance of ITM will be 0.7+0.3*0.4*0.4*0.5 = 0.724. If no one pushes next hand, you beat "shorty" 50% of the time, and still have a chance to survive next blind if you lose, your chance will be 0.5+0.5*0.4*0.5 = 0.6, in average your ITM by folding is 0.8*0.724 + 0.2*0.6 = 0.6992. If big stack still pushes with any two cards, you call to make it 3 way, your chance is still 0.67+0.33*0.5*0.4*0.5 = 0.703. Your chance of ITM is close to 70%. By calling and win, you still have at least 10% chance OTM, 0.63*0.9 = 0.567. The extra chance to win 2nd most likely can't make up the difference.

[rjb03]

Post deleted by rjb03

[tigerite]

He means the next hand.

[Gigabet]

[ QUOTE ]
You are so right. Daliman is horrible at SNG's. He plays so badly people post his hand histories on websites for public ridicule.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a public forum for this? How did I miss it, I thought I was the only one who ridiculed his hand histories.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

That's great. He was asking for opinions, so I gave mine. It's not a call I would make all the time or even most of the time but sometimes you gotta through the numbers out the window and just use judgement. It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.

[/ QUOTE ]

Possibly one of the worst posts of the week.

What do you base your judgment on, if not the numbers which control the outcome of the hand? SnGs are a different game, and the later stages are about knowing the percentages. Period.

eastbay

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
After I posted I realized this was just a STT just outside the money. I would probally fold in this situation, but if it was already down to 3 I would definately make the call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough. Also, realize this IS the STT forum though,

[ QUOTE ]
It's players like you who count every digit of every probality that get eaten alive by most pros.


[/ QUOTE ]

Cue Nipsey Russell....


RRRIIIIIIGGGHHHHTTTTT!!!

P.S. I dont count EVERY digit, just 2. Eastbay is the one who counts every digit and gets eaten alive by us pros. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Daliman]

Yes, but there is probably a better than average chance his hand is worse than 63% here. Believe it or not, I actually don't know the value vs random cards of AT, or even most hands..(I have general ideas, but not near exact #'s). You got this somewhere in your bag of tricks, Easty? 63% just seems a bit high, i'd think more like 60, but i'd be guessing.

[tigerite]

Oh I agree, and I think 0.5 of a % is too low to even consider calling anyway. In this position I'd be looking for at least 3% and probably even 5%.

[eastbay]

[ QUOTE ]

P.S. I dont count EVERY digit, just 2. Eastbay is the one who counts every digit and gets eaten alive by us pros. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

False on both counts, but there's no such thing as bad press.

eastbay

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
ICM: If you fold your $EV is 0.1522
If you call and win your $EV is 0.2492
If you call and lose your $EV is 0

Assuming you really are 63% then

0.63 * 0.2492 = 0.156996

So yes, you are correct to call, but it's so close in terms of EV that it's probably worth passing up on.

[/ QUOTE ]

One issue that I have with the ICM is dealing with blind rotations late in the game. I am going to assume you did this calculation based only on stack sizes resulting from the different scenario (as I would have). Is there a way to calculate this so that it takes into account what blinds have to be posted on the next hand?

At pure face value, if this is a +$EV move, you should take it, since you don't have enough chips to give yourself higher $EV moves in the future by passing this one up (as opposed to the early game). However, I strongly suspect that the posting of the blinds for the next few hands will alter the $EV calculations enough to make this call -$EV.