Turn decision with a lot of questionable outs

[blackaces13]

Assume typical opponents:

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
<font color="666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks, CO checks.

Turn: (5.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, action on you...

[phixxx]

If your opponent has a flush you're a 4:1 underdog, assuming your opponent has a flush lower than a queen. Your flush card may not even be good here, if anyone in the hand has a higher spade you are now officially drawing to 5 outs. If all your outs are live, which I highly doubt, you are still 3:1 underdog to a pair.

There are only a few cards that I want to see on the river. Getting about 7:1, it's really based on what kind of players they are, I may be inclined to call one more bet to see another card. However, I'd hate to get raised here on the turn. I MAY lean towards folding here though.

I contradicted myself many times. One part of me says fold, the other part says see the river.

I think folding is the best option?

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Your flush card may not even be good here, if anyone in the hand has a higher spade you are now officially drawing to 5 outs

[/ QUOTE ]

Unfortunately, I think "VERY optimistically drawing to 5 outs and quite possibly stone cold DEAD" would fit better than "officially" in that sentence.

[SlantNGo]

The pot is laying you 6.25:1 so you need about 6 1/2 outs to call. Between your overcards and 3rd nut flush draw I think you have about 6 outs. Close but I call. That's a plenty big pot.

[blackaces13]

.

[Ajax410]

I was once told by a very wise man that if I'm holding KQo, the worst flop I want to see is low-mid coordinated cards. This is an example of why that is so. Someone who decided to stay in with Q9s or K9s has you reverse dominated - you're holding onto a one card/non-nut flush draw, and you're forced to call a bet out of the BB, who probably has some kind of made hand already.

I would have folded to a bet on the flop, unless I think someone was making a move on me, and I definitly fold to this bet on the turn. This is the worst flop for KQo, and you should use it as an excuse to get out as cheaply as you can.

Alex

[Shillx]

I would fold. I don't really think there is too much difference in calling and folding though.

Shill

[Escape]

Hm would you stay in with K/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif

[Ajax410]

For one bet, yes.

Alex

[blackaces13]

I thought about it for a while and folded though I was unsure of myself. When I used to be unsure I would usually call but lately I have switched to generally folding in tough spots because I felt I was calling to much, especially on the turn.

The river was As and I would have won a big pot. I'm still not sure this was a good fold.

[nolanfan34]

Checked to me, I'm betting the flop. I know there are a lot of opponents in there, and someone could have flopped a straight, but lately I've been having success firing away on the flop here.

If you get multiple callers, you can always fold unimproved on the turn. If it's checked to you, you can take a free card.

The way it played out, I think you have the odds to call one more bet to see the river.

[HajiShirazu]

A 4th flush card is usually going to give you the winner. A K or Q also gives you decent winning chances. I think a spade is good 75% of the time and a K or Q good half the time. So you have enough outs to call.
FWIW I would check this flop as you did. It`s awful for your hand.

[DMBFan23]

I agree with the flop bet if checked to. I'm a flop autobettor if checked to after a preflop raise, and if I can get the K /images/graemlins/spade.gif to fold then that's a coup (I'm assuming the A /images/graemlins/spade.gif will call, we know how people like to chase aces...but it won't necessarily be out there.) betting the flop also might fold CO, allowing me to take a free card on the turn some of the time. (which I would always take if given in this scenario

[GrunchCan]

I think it's a pretty clear call, becasue I'm giving your draw 9 outs. If BB had an Ax or Kx flush, he'd often bet the flop when he made a 4-flush. Of course, he could have been going for a C/R and whiffed. But based on the play Iv'e actually seen occur in this hand, I have no specific evidence that anyone has an A or K high flush. I'm calling.

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
betting the flop also might fold CO, allowing me to take a free card on the turn some of the time. (which I would always take if given in this scenario

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, that's the other reason I like to bet. I want that button if someone has cold-called PF behind me.

Happy b-day by the way.

[GrunchCan]

Checked to me, I'm betting the flop.

I think this is clearly wrong. The flop is much too coordinated. It's a terrible flop for overcards.

[DMBFan23]

thanks /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Checked to me, I'm betting the flop.

I think this is clearly wrong. The flop is much too coordinated. It's a terrible flop for overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree it's a bad flop for overcards. But if one bet on the flop can force a couple people out/buy the button/get me a free river, I think it's certainly worth it.

I'm not saying that the hand is ahead on the flop. I just generally will bet when I'm the PF raiser and checked to, because I want to stay on the offensive. If you consistently check through when a coordinated flop hits like this, people will start to test you with bets on the flop. I'd much rather see a turn/river for 1 SB.

Also, if you're C/R'ed on the flop, and have a couple of cold-callers back to you, you can get away from your hand if you feel you're close to drawing dead.

But more often than not, you're going to escape an opponent's planned check-raise on the turn when you stay aggressive on the flop.