Heads Up Question

Need some help. Whats the right play


Paradise tournament:


1st pays $25

2nd pays $15


Seat 4 (T-1260) and big blind 1000

Seat 7 (T-6740) and small blind 500


I am holding (ten six off) on the puck with the 500 SB. I Raise basically 760

which will put my opponent all in if he calls

260 more (which he obviously must)


Should I have raised?


My thinking is its probably not the right play.

I have no idea how T6 fairs against a random hand

but my wild ass guess is it will win about 45% of

the time against a random holding. (does anyone

actually know how it will do?)

So basically if I fold before the flop my opponent will still need 3 hands to win, which

will be 50-50 each of the three times making him

a 7 to 1 dog. If i raise and lose which will be the majority of the time against a random holding

then my opponent needs to only win two more hands

to win the tournament and must be less than a 7 to 1 dog.


I kinda make assumptions like the opponents are equal and chip stack is proportional to winning.

Is this kind of assumption valid?

So what's the right play raise or fold?


Thanks,


Confused

This is one of those times when calling can be the best play. If you call, you must call again if he raises preflop. And, if he bets the flop, even if you missed, you again must call.


However, what if he checks the flop because he missed? And what if he will fold when you bet? This is the reason to call. There are players who will check-and-fold here, and you must give them a chance to do so. Otherwise, the blinds are so big relative to the stacks that there is almost no hand you don't play to showdown.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

> So basically if I fold before the flop my opponent will still need 3 hands to win, which will be 50-50 each of the three times making him a 7 to 1 dog.


No - given your own assumptions, before posting, your opponent is still about a 126 : 674 dog to win. That's b/c if he loses the 3rd hand after doubling up twice, he won't bust out as you will no longer have him covered.


> I have no idea how T6 fairs against a random hand but my wild ass guess is it will win about 45% of the time against a random holding.


Good guess - 47% according to my simulation here. Given that he has only T260 left, you're getting 44 : 19 and an EV of +T424 by putting him all in. Your hand would have to win less than 30% of the times to fold here. 32o, the worst possible hand heads-up against two random cards, still wins 32% of the times, so you have to play any two cards.


cu


Ignatius

Most enlightning post. Raising clearly looks

correct to me.


thanks,


Confused