How much to bet on the river

[davidross]

Party $100 NL tournament. 400 players, 1st round, blinds are 10/15. I still have 1000 chips. 2 limpers to me in LP with QQ and I make it 60 to go. Only 1 EP caller. He started teh hand with 1060 chips. 160 in the pot. Flop is 984 two diamonds. I have the Qd. Checked to me and I bet 100. He calls. 360 in the pot. Turn 2 clubs. He checks and I bet 300. He calls. 960 in the pot. River is another 2, no flush. He checks again. I have 540 left. How much do you bet here?

[SossMan]

all of it.

[Tosh]

Second that.

[Pat Southern]

[ QUOTE ]
I have 540 left. How much do you bet here?

[/ QUOTE ]

540

[RavenJackson]

What do you put him on? Ax both diamonds? So he has not paired his A and missed the flush. Wouldn't an all-in result in a sure fold?

I would be tempted to squeeze a little more out of him with a minimum bet. Then push if he plays back. That being said, both Tosh and Sossman are to be deferred to in this situation.

[adanthar]

Well, if he had a straight or flush draw, he missed them both, and if he had 98 you've got him, too.

Hands he has that he calls an all in with and you beat: JJ-TT, maybe A9-A8 (it's Party).

Hands he has that he's slowplaying for some bizarre reason: A2d (it's Party), a set/full, 92/82 soooted (Party).

I think I go all in and track his further progress to 'out on the bubble' 3 hours from now when he turns over a 2.

[Tosh]

Betting 15 into a pot of over 900 is just pointless, its just giving a cheap showdown to a 9 as much as squeezing a tiny amount of value from ace high.

He could have a variety of random hands he thinks are good, but unless he has a 2, set or bigger overpair, we have it. All these hands are fairly unlikely that he will wait to the river to check raise his flopped set or hit runner runer 2's. Not to mention that if he had kings/aces and has checked the river having called all sreets.

Stick it in, often he will fold some kind of busted draw but thats not a reason to be betting tiny amounts into a sizeable pot.

I would reasonably expect TT/JJ to always call all in. 9x, even hands like A8 and 77 to call all in here.

[gergery]

What hand could a good player play like that? I can’t think of any, so I’m having trouble putting him on a hand.

I suppose the only thing that makes any halfway sense would be a passively-played big draw that is getting enough implied odds to call the turn. Maybe JT diamonds that didn’t want to raise to no-man’s land but realized pushing was way overbetting.
Or an A8 for pair/flushdraw/overcard for 14 outs. Still, its oddly played by your opponent.

I’d probably have checked behind since its seems about as likely that he is ahead vs. being behind IF he calls. But really I think he was on a busted draw so won’t call.

I guess if you look at the hands, its probably slightly more likely he has some of the hands that might call. And if you figure he might be terrible and call with AK diamonds or 66 then I guess pushing is better.
Hands you are behind to that call: AA, KK, 99, 88, 44, A2
Hands you are ahead of that might call: JJ, TT, 98, A9, A8, T9 maybe other random crap

--Greg

[SossMan]

what does he have that's going to fold to an all in, but call a smaller bet of, say, 300?

I think a push is the only reasonable play here...anyting else is just giving chips away, IMO.

[Tosh]

Your mistake is not weighting the likelihood of the hands. I think we can give a VERY small weighting to KK and AA. I don't think he flopped a set here that often either, even if he'll fold some of the hands we expect him to call with, we're surely ahead too often to not go all in. Don't let your opponents off so easily.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
What hand could a good player play like that?

[/ QUOTE ]

mistake #1.

Also, following through like this sets up future value bets when you have the nuts.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

540 is certainly the best choice. However, you expect him to fold all busted draws to that bet. In some cases, especially if you know the opponent and he might fall for this, bet a small amount. Now, betting the minimum of 15 is ridiculously low, but for 100 he might decide that you're on a draw, and hoping he was also on a draw, and this is a weak bluff attempt on the river. This might inspire him to check-raise all-in and win you a much bigger pot.

However, your first choice should just be all-in, and hope he has a 9x and will call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[SossMan]

I would have to have a read that he is pretty aggro for me to try this play, Greg.

The standard play vs. the random guy should be the all in, right?

[tiger7210]

I have a difficult time putting him on a hand other than a pair with an Ace high flush draw. In a spot like this, if I know I'm willing to get all of my chips in with a push I generally try to squeeze a bit more out of him by betting half my stack (270) chips hoping he either calls and I get a bit more or he reraises me say A9 thinking I'm making a weak bluff on a missed draw of my own. This way when he see's how much is in the pot he may be more tempted to call knowing that if he loses he still has chips left to play another hand. I've found that unless the player is really a weak player he's probaly not going to call off his remaining chips here with just a pair. It's always hard to tell exactly how much more you can squeeze out of him, but unless I know he'll call my all in which in this case I don't get that feeling, or I think he would have pushed the river himself, I'm squeezing as much out of him as I can while still leaving him some hope to stay alive in the tourny.

[davidross]

I'm glad to hear these answers, I've been wondering about my play. I made the near pot sized bets trying to discourage draws, but I wondered about the river bet. I couldn't put him on a hand either, and in those cases I often check behind on the river, but decided that I was giving him too much credit, so I did push. He called with 88 and I was done very early. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[binions]

The weak lead works on many players.

They certainly call it with many second best hands, and it turns into a value bet for u.

Sometimes they reraise u with the worst hand, sensing weakness.

Sometimes they fold, smelling something fishy.

If you don't think the other guy will call 540, try a weak lead.

[dr_zorba]

Probably no one will read this, it's so late in the thread, but hopefully someone who responded will see it and help me out. (Especially my hero, FossilMan.)

During the first level of my MTTs (delete a zero from the entry fee), my first 100 chips are for buying cheap Flops and hoping-to-get-lucky against an aggressive chump betting dead money. When I read the problem, the only rational hand for Op I could imagine was 88 or 44, since I would bet those hands exactly the same as Op. Therefore, following the oldtimer's rule, don't make a bet that won't be called unless you're beat, I checked on the river without further thought.

Since it's obvious from everyone pushing in that I really misunderstand something basic about MTT, can anyone explain exactly what was bad about the Check-Calling with a flopped set?

[davidross]

What you are missing here is that there are plenty of hands that will call the river bet though, JJ, TT, 99, A9s. There are a lot of bad plays made early in these tournaments so someone calling all the way isn't necessarily suspicious.

[DonButtons]

If he's check/calling you all the way down, usually its some kind of draw. With that safe river, I would bet a small ammount, something that the other stack will think if he comes over the top that you will fold. So 100 sounds fine here.

The only problem is you might of missed a bigger bet if he's calling you down with top pair or a smaller pair.

So its all on your gut feeling, if he's on a draw, small bet, and if you think he has like TPTK, you push.

But it the beginning, its like a 50/50, with no reads, a push might be better, but lots of people chase early.

[dr_zorba]

Thanks for replying, David. I have much respect for you and have learned a lot from your posts.

So what you're saying, then, IN THE EARLY ROUNDS, is that if I flop a set against a great player who holds QQ, I will always bust him if I simply check-call through the whole hand and the board remains unscary. And the corollary: If someone flops a set against my QQ, I am always going broke.

Is that correct? If so, later in the tournament, same type of board, when Op gives your QQ two check-calls, do you still push in ?

edited addendum: Does it matter if it's a Freezeout?

[HoldingFolding]

Just today I've read five posts about TPTK or 2P losing to sets.

One of my replies:

[ QUOTE ]
Early in MTTs a lot of players will not fold pocket pairs even to 5 or 6 BB raises. This is because, if you do flop the set, you know you are going to get all the guys chips - $30 MTT players can not get away from AA/KK. This can make the play EV+.

[/ QUOTE ]

The general consensus always seems to be "this is Party, he could be on [your pathetic hand that no one in their right mind would play, but you have beat, here]". The levels that DR plays at there just aren't as many morons as people want to believe. If someone is playing back at you and you only have a pair, you seriously have to consider that you may be beat.

[ QUOTE ]
The most common way I bust out of an MTT is running up against a set. The most common way I bust someone out of an MTT is them running up against my set.


[/ QUOTE ]

[zaxx19]

Actually Ill pay 5BB to see a flop with babys on the first level everytime..especially multiway. Are you crazy ?? Half the time I double through on hands early and mid tourney its through LAG monkeys who catch an Ace for their AQ or something and proceed to keep betting into me with virtually no outs...call-call-RAISE!!! Man I cant lay my AK here ....uh uh...uh call...BUSTED.

Baby pairs are worth a high raise early bc how attached people get to TPTK and overpairs. Thanks for illustrating this again.

[etizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
If someone is playing back at you

[/ QUOTE ]

He was never played back at, or even bet into. The only thing to do here is push, and I'm sure Dross did it without thinking about it too much.