S&G Realization

[DalaiLama]

I've played s&gs for 2 years now working my way up to the 200s. A post in the "Best 215 players" thread last week said, "the best s&g players in the world play the party 215s". This really caught my attention as none of the more experienced players (gigabet, daliman, etc...) disputed the claim. A recent bad run got me thinking... Why go through the many physcological hurdles that accompany the 215s (swings, stress, etc.) if you could do better elsewhere. What I'm getting at is the following. Lets say I can four table 215s for an ROI of 10%, six table 109s for an ROI of 20%, and eight table 55s for an ROI of 35%. That suggests hourly profits of 107.50, 163.50, and 192.50 respectivley, given 1.25 tables/hour. I set it up this way because I can't 6 table 215s or 8 table 215s without incurring severe diminshing returns. Lets say I can 8 table 215s at an ROI of 6%, that equates to 129/hour which is still less than the 55s scenario. From here forward you can find me on the 55s playing highly profitable poker less the heavy swings and physcological stress. Each players ROIs and table variables differ, but run the numbers and see where you stand. The force working against logic, atleast for me, is the feel good intagible of playing at the highest tables and the gamblers mentality of "just one more good run and I'll drop back some". Thoughts?

[Irieguy]

I had the same exact realization last month. I kept banging my head against the wall trying to move to the $109's... inevitably running into a bad streak and killing my bankroll. Now I just 8-table the $33's for a nice earn rate with minimal variance. I scatter in $55's and $109's occassionally just to keep it interesting; but I can make more with less headache by playing more tables of the lower limit games.

Irieguy

[AleoMagus]

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and eight table 55s for an ROI of 35%

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Your realization sounds good, but I just don't believe this is possible.

Regards
Brad S

[zephyr]

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Lets say I can four table 215s for an ROI of 10%, six table 109s for an ROI of 20%

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Regardless of how many tables you can play at a time, if you can make $21.8/tourney in the 109s and $21.5/tourney in the 215's then why anyone would play the 215's is beyond my logic.

I think you're expected ROI's are off quite significantly.

Only my opinion,

Zephyr

[ZeeJustin]

Very few posters here understand that you need a good 5000 SNGs before you have an accurate measure of ROI.

[Gramps]

There was a long while that I thought I could do better in the $109s than the $215s, so I kept playing 2 of each (4-tabling) until I could build up a big enough sample size to try and figure out which was more profitable long term. It was close, and if I thought I could make more at the $55s or $109s, I'd have zero qualms about doing it.

Actually, if my $/hour was the same between a higher and lower level, and I was doing it full time, I'd go with the lower level for the lesser swings.

A lot of investment professionals talk about how it's smart to put your money in an investment with a little less expected return, if it means peace of mind vs. an investment that has a little higher expected return, but is much riskier (and is more prone to big swings). That is, just because your emotional well-being can't easily be translated into a dollar amount, doesn't mean it's not an important consideration. I think the same applies in poker, since all it is for a winning player is investing anyhow.

[DalaiLama]

Zee, statistically speaking, yes, a larger sample size provides a higher degree of confidence. However, with a sample size of say 2,000, you could say with confidence that your ROI is within a certain % of x. Zagby or Gallops polls have confidence intervals. You can't say with 100% confidence what a players ROI is until he quits playing, or which candidate will win until all votes are counted. Is an ROI of 10, 20, 30 that unreasonable? Based on my results over several thousand s&gs, and others on this forum, I don't think its that far fetched. Plug in ROIs of 5, 15, and 25 and my realization still holds. What interval increases/decreases between limits do you experience?

[JJKillian]

This post is beyong my lvl/experience. But the rake would also have to be considered in. It is 10% at 50, 9% at 100 and 7.5% at 200. Not sure how much that will move your numbers around.

JJ

[Bremen]

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This post is beyong my lvl/experience. But the rake would also have to be considered in. It is 10% at 50, 9% at 100 and 7.5% at 200. Not sure how much that will move your numbers around.

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Remember, ROI includes the rake :0)

[JJKillian]

oh yeah hehe