ABSOLUTE WORST BAD BEAT ON TOP OF A BAD BEAT?

[phixxx]

WOW! That's all I have to say. I just came back from a MTT that was held in an gym close to where I live. I was at the final table of a field of about 60 (30+3), we were well into the money with 6 players left. The shortstack in the BB had been playing rather tight. Blinds 1000/2000, folded around to the button opened the pot for a modest 4500. The BB smelling a steal moved in for 8.5k total. The button called in about .36 seconds. The button flipped over AA, the BB KJo. The BB got up out of his chair in disgust, grabbing his coat and started to move towards the door when the dealer flopped THREE JACKS! About 15 spectators and everyone at the table started going nuts! The guy put his jacket back on the chair and sat back down, feeling alive. Everyone was chatting when the turn brought an ace. The room fell quiet. Of course, the older gentleman with the jacks still felt very confident, a big smile on his face. The river brought the case.....ace. The entire gym erupted, it was the most unreal beat I have ever witnessed in my life. The man with the jacks had a look on his face that I couldn't duplicate in 1 million years.

Could anyone calculate the math for this? What are the odds of this happening again? I doubt I'll ever see something like this again.

[wheeler]

Most of us use a deck with only four aces.

[phixxx]

How is that not 4 aces? Two aces in his hand, one on the turn one on the river?

[kyro]

please tell me you're not this dumb

[phixxx]

Ahahah, you guys actually caught that? Did I say AJ? I meant KJ /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Burno]

the odds are impossible to one.

What really happened? Did the other guy have KJ instead of AJ?

[phixxx]

My apologies, I didn't proof read it.

So many aces, I typed A instead of K /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[phixxx]

And no, I'm not 'that dumb', I made a simple spelling error and don't need to be flamed about my keystroke abilities. Thank you.

[Lazymeatball]

odds of hitting perfect perfect, I believe it is 989:1. If you play poker regularly, you will see 989:1 outdaws with some frequency.

However, as all the money went in preflop AA is roughly a 7:1 favorite over KJo, so this really isn't a bad beat at all, as the best hand won.

[phixxx]

True it's not a bad beat, but losing to higher quads constitutes as a bad beat for me at least :P

I do play poker VERY very frequently, and I have never seen something like this.

[phixxx]

As well, I believe your odds are incorrect. The odds of flopping quads with one card in your hand are about 9700:1. Multiply that by the odds of hitting running aces?

[BigAlChicago]

Given a pair up against two undercards, I think the odds of flopping quads on one of the undercards followed by quads on the pair is one in 8,561,520. There are 12 combinations for the undercards (6 ways times the two cards) and there are two combinations for the turn and the river to match the pair. There are 205,476,480 possible flop combinations out of the remaining 48 unknown cards.

If you want to specify the lower of the two undercards is what flops quads, that would happen one time in approximately 17 million times you have this set up (overpair versus two undercards.)

[shant]

I play poker very frequently, and I've never witnessed the runner-runner-perfect scenario. I think you're downplaying the scenario slightly.

[sucka]

The fact is - before the flop AA was way ahead. It's a 7 card game and he ended up winning the hand. So what's the big deal? Just because it was so dramatic doesn't mean that the guy wasn't a huge favorite to start with.

This is not a bad beat. When someone catches a 1 outer gutshot to make a straight flush when you've flopped quads - now that's a bad beat.

[phixxx]

This person caught a runner runner 2/1 out scenario after the jacks were ahead. Sure, consdering preflop its technically not a bad beat, but the way the hand progressed and the way the lead changed I think it's pretty brutal.

[italianstang]

That sucks but it would suck way worse in a live 2-4 game with a $40,000 or so jackpot as this hand would not even qualify.

[theantelope]

Phixxx,

Don't listen to the bitter pricks who are saying things like "duh...geee...AA is a favorite..and it won..so it wasn't a bad beat. See how cool I am? I'm disagreeing with someone! Look at me, I'm capable of being a disagreeable jerkoff--isn't that special?" or "duh...geee...perfect-perfect happens all the time!"

That was a pretty damn remarkable hand. What's wrong with you killjoys?

[phixxx]

Thank you antelope. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Yeah, that would be horrible. Only one card used in his hand /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[BigBluffer]

Gotta agree, that was an amazing hand. If I was the guy who flopped the quad jacks, I'd feel like crap.

This happened to me last night in a low-limit game: I limp in UTG with A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif. It's a loose game, so there will be plenty of action and time to raise later if I hit the flop. Other times I'll raise with big slick in early position. Depends on the game. MP raises and 4 or 5 players call.

Flop is K /images/graemlins/heart.gif A /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Ahhh...top two pair! I bet out. 3 or 4 call.

Turn is A /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet. MP pre-flop-raiser raises, I re-raise, MP caps, everyone else folds.

River is the J /images/graemlins/heart.gif. I bet, MP raises, I think about 10 seconds...."ya can't play scared" (monsters under the bed syndrome) so I re-raise. MP caps and turns over Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif for the royal beating my AAAKK. I just smiled, congratulated him for his royal and sulked for half an hour. /images/graemlins/mad.gif Thank God it was only a $1/$2 game or else I would've lost a lot of money.

Now, was this a bad beat cause he pulled perfect-perfect to beat me? Or just another hand since I was the dog before the flop anyhow?

[challenger84]

you deserved to lose for how badly you played that hand.

[parade]

Educate us, how badly did he play that hand?

[B Dids]

"limp in UTG with A K . It's a loose game, so there will be plenty of action and time to raise later if I hit the flop."

[shant]

He didn't need perfect-perfect to beat you. If the turn was a Q instead of an A he would have been beating you. Perfect-perfect bad beats are when the only outs the opponent has are two cards in a row to beat you.

He did, however, 1-out you.

[challenger84]

What he said.

[parade]

Limping in with AK UTG isn't an bad play at all. If as you have stated, in a loose game, you will get callers anyways, the QQ will definitely not fold. So what difference does it make for this particular hand? You will only end up losing more. In a tighter game, the raise will still not get the QQ hand to fold. Again, with this particular hand, he would still have lost. So, I still don't get how badly he played the hand?

[challenger84]

Get back to me when you understand the game of poker.

[Dominic]

I had quad Kings beaten by pocket AA when the turn and river went A - A. And I dropped $900 on that hand in a 15-30 game at Hollywood Park. So I believe it.

[Schneids]

You raise AK because people will call preflop with substantially worse hands and you are earning value with each bad call... you aren't really raising AK to "limit the field" like say you might with a hand such as 77 from MP or LP.

P.S. the QQ has six outs on the flop... queen for set or a jack for a straight. Tough loss, sucky that it happens, but not a horrific beat.

[xxxxx]

The failure to reraise with 4-5 people already having money in the pot is worse than the failure to raise. No one is going to fold. Maybe QQ will cap.

[phixxx]

Is that the first time you've ever seen something like that Dominic?

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
However, as all the money went in preflop AA is roughly a 7:1 favorite over KJo, so this really isn't a bad beat at all, as the best hand won.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is it me or is this cliche just getting a little irritating? Anybody sitting there with KJo, and anyone in the room would surely feel this was a bad beat

[Dominic]

lol....it was then....but I've seen others just as bad. /images/graemlins/smile.gif