Final Table strategery: Learn from my mistake

[MisterKing]

I made a classic final table mistake tonight -- hope posting it saves at least a few of you from having to repeat it yourselves. Tournament pays five, seven players remaining. Stacks and blinds indicated below.

Paradise Poker - Tournament Grublog II
Blinds T1,500/3,000, 150 ante
*Blinds go up to T2,000/4,000 in 4 minutes*
No Limit Texas Hold'em

Seat 2 is the button

Saw flop | <font color="red">Saw Showdown</font>
Seat 1: (10,030 in chips)
Seat 2: (4,640 in chips)
<font color="red">Seat 3: Villian (39,405 in chips)</font>
<font color="red">Seat 5: Hero (10,610 in chips)</font>
Seat 6: (65,660 in chips)
Seat 8: (48,585 in chips)
Seat 10: (24,070 in chips)

Hero posts BB of T3000 and is dealt 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Pre-Flop
5 folds, Villian (SB) raises to T10,000, Hero ponders and calls for his remaining T7,460 chips.

Before proceeding further, I want to point out that this was a terrible decision, almost irrespective of what Villian (SB) was holding. The key principle, which I'm sure most of you know but some do not, is that at a final table, when you're close to the money or in the money looking to move up, you need to look to $$ EV rather than tournament chip EV to guide your decisions.

As it turns out, Villian was right to raise, holding K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/club.gif. I do think he raised too much, however. He could make me pot-committed with a slightly smaller bet, and may induce a call/re-raise all in with lesser holdings if he bets less than my whole stack.

According to twodimes, I was a 1.5:1 dog against this hand, and getting 2:1 on a call. I knew I was getting some kind of overlay, so I called. But the overlay I was getting in tournament chips was meaningless... Again, the only thing that mattered at this stage was making the money, and I needed to outlast two others to do so.

Flop: [ 2h Ad 8h ] (2 players, T21,360)

Turn : [ 2h Ad 8h ] [ 3c ]
Note -- I'm 86% to win the pot at this point. But that is almost meaningless in $$ EV. If you read this far, I think my main point is: even knowing that I'd be 86% to win the pot by the turn, I still think calling off all my chips was a mistake. Look at the other stacks at the table, the blinds, and the fact that they will soon escalate significantly.

River : [ 2h Ad 8h 3c ] [ Ks ]

Lesson is, I could have folded this hand and the next (my SB), and still had about T5,750 left about enough for one orbit. Two small stacks would face the blinds before I would the next time. The right play, while of marginal ethics, I think, was to go into the tank long enough to ensure that the next hand would be the last at the 1,500/3,000 blind level. At that point, fold, and presumably fold the next hand. Then, the increased blinds would hit the two other short stacks, putting the onus on them. In terms of $$ EV, this has to be the right play.

Or am I nuts? As a sidenote, it was wonderful to see the great David Ross participate in this event!

[zaxx19]

Someone on here always says pot-odds are overatted now who was that??? No but to be honest the posters that flame me usually provide a caveat for these situations. It was a bad call given there were 2 other short stacks BUT if im in a gambling mood this is type of hand that can crack anything...for what thats worth.

[david050173]

I am not sure you could fold your way into the money if the other small stacks are playing tight. It seems likely to me that either seat 1 or seat 2 will still be around when the blinds get to you. The question to me is would you rather gamble now or later. You have little/no folding equity but you might be able to get your money in as a favorite. I am actually a bit surprised that the SB hand was that good. The last question is does 5th actually pay decent money? Are you better off gambling that you will end up with 20K and then have some chance of moving up the money ladder?

[phixxx]

You sure do post ALOT zaxx :O

[grandgnu]

With the other two short stacks you could certainly wait and hope that someone else goes out before you. It's tough to give up your big blind money, but you need to move up two spots.

Heads-up this isn't too bad a call on your part, you have the opportunity to double up and increase the pressure on the other two short stacks to try and survive.

But, a fold would allow you to get your money in with hopefully a better hand, or watch someone else go out and slide your way into the money. Depends on what the payout is too.

[MisterKing]

[ QUOTE ]
The last question is does 5th actually pay decent money? Are you better off gambling that you will end up with 20K and then have some chance of moving up the money ladder?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is an important point I neglected to address in my initial post. 5th place was in face good money -- almost 3x my investment, as this was a Re-Buy &amp; Add-On tournament. I had not made any re-buys (I did double my stack before the first hand through an add-on, and paid for the add-on at the 1st break), but of course many others had, so my investment in the tourney was smaller than most. In that sense, 5th place would be a good result.

[fnurt]

You need to post the payouts before we can really take a shot at the answer. Generally, however, giving up any shot at the bigger prizes in order to fold your way into the money is overrated.

You talk like you could guarantee yourself 5th place by folding. But really, it's not even close to a guarantee. There is one stack that is the same as you, and you are no better than 50/50 to outlast him. Even the super-short stack needs to win only one all-in to be in the same chip position as you. And you need both of them to bust out.

Think about the upside for a minute. If you win this hand, you are suddenly in a respectable chip position. You will have enough in your stack to threaten others, letting you play aggressively and steal the substantial blinds if given the opportunity. You become a huge favorite to finish in the money, with a chance to move up even higher, to finish in the top 3 or even to win the tournament.

If you fold, there is very little chance of anything good happening other than 5th place. And for the reasons I mentioned, a lot has to happen before you even get there. If one or both of the short stacks picks up a hand and doubles up, you're going to start sweating.

Listen, I've been in your shoes before. When you bust out just short of the money, it's natural to kick yourself and say "Gee, I wish I had just folded my way there." But it's not that simple. Playing to win the tournament is what will make you the most money in the long run.

If you post the payouts, I will try to conjure up some math to give us a better answer.

[fnurt]

The size of your investment makes no difference. The only thing that matters is the actual $ that gets paid out.

Your goal at this moment in time is to maximize your expectation going forward. Whether you spent $1, or $100, or $10000 to enter the tournament, that money is gone, and it's useless to think about it.

[MisterKing]

Good point(s) -- thanks for your insight.

Payout schedule:
7th: $0
6th: $0
5th: $84
4th: $125
3rd: $190
2nd: $255
1st: $489

[tigerite]

Let's use ICM

Before the hand your $EV is 0.0511.

If you fold, your $EV becomes 0.0374.
If you call and win, your $EV becomes 0.1023.
Obviously if you lose, your $EV = 0.

Let's say you are about 0.4 to win the hand (I know this isn't completely accurate).

0.4*0.1023 + 0.6*0 = 0.04092
This is higher than 0.0374, so it's a call. Just.

[fnurt]

Thanks! Let's do our best to try and figure out your cash expectation.

If you fold, you have 7k, and if you fold again, you have 6k; there are other stacks of 10k and 4k out there, but they will have to take the blinds before you. Only one of you three can win 5th prize. The guy with 10k probably has about the same chance as you, while the guy with 4k has about half that or worse, since he needs to double up just to have a stack comparable to yours. So your relative chances to make the money might be something like 40-40-20.

Let's take a more optimistic view of things and say you have a 50% chance to make the money if you fold. Even though you are barely left with anything when you fold the current round of blinds, let's be even more optimistic and break down your 60% cashes like this: 40% you finish 5th, 10% you do even better than that. (The other 50% of the time you finish out of the money.) If you finish higher than 5th, most of the time you will finish 3rd or 4th, of course; let's call the value of this scenario $160, to keep the math simple.

So if you fold, your expectation is (.4 * 84) + (.1 * 160) = $49.60.

If you call, what are your chances to win this hand? Realize that your opponent is likely to raise with a very, very wide range of hands here, because he knows you are trying to get into the money. 87s is a 48% winner against a random hand, but his range of hands isn't going to be THAT large. A hand like AKo, with the ace of your suit, is a 60-40 favorite over you; let's make that our benchmark and give you a 40% chance to win the hand.

If you win, you have 22k in chips and are suddenly in a very good spot, basically tied for 4th chip position with a decent amount of play left. You have 10% of the chips in play, which may well translate into a 10% chance to win the tournament; but let's err on the side of pessimism and describe your chances of finishing in each place like this: 5-10-20-25-30-10, where 5 is your chance of finishing 1st, and the final 10 is your chance of finishing out of the money.

So if you win the hand, your expectation is (.05 * 489) + (.1 * 255) + (.2 * 190) + (.25 * 125) + (.3 * 84) = $144.40. Multiply this by the 40% chance we gave you to win the hand and your cash expectation is $57.76.

Considering that we used very optimistic estimates when talking about folding, and very pessimistic estimates when talking about calling, and the numbers still came out in favor of a call, the actual decision probably is not that close. By the way, the numbers I arrived at may look reasonably close, but if your cash EV from calling here is $57.76, then the estimate suggests you give up nearly 15% of your EV by folding, which would be a pretty big mistake.

I think the most important fact to consider in all of this is that folding does not even come close to guaranteeing you a money finish. It's hard to argue that you are much better than 50/50 to make the money after folding, and you are probably worse off than that. By folding, you give up any realistic shot at winning the tournament, which is where the real money is in this payout structure; by giving you only a 5% chance to win the tournament if you accumulate 10% of the chips in play, I have probably underestimated your chances of winning (and thus your cash EV) in that scenario significantly.

[MisterKing]

Actually, your math looks right to me. You guessed I was 0.4 to win the hand, which incidentally is exactly right, according to twodimes. But I don't know that I could assume he was as strong as KQo, so against many other hands (e.g. A2-A6, 22-66, K6s, JTo (shares some straights, so more ties) all look even better than 0.4 for me. Frankly, I read him for Ax, with x likely to be 7 or less (a 50% shot, mathematically).

Ok, so maybe calling down was not a strategic error. But I wonder if you folks are putting enough emphasis on two things:

1.) that I could catch a good next hand if I fold and double up there, or:
2.) that the blinds are going up soon, and if manipulated correctly could hit one player for over half his stack, and the other for about half, WITH BIG STACKS IN STEAL POSITION. Chip leader and #3 or so would be Button &amp; CO when the smaller stacks get hit by the blinds.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, your math looks right to me. You guessed I was 0.4 to win the hand, which incidentally is exactly right, according to twodimes. But I don't know that I could assume he was as strong as KQo, so against many other hands (e.g. A2-A6, 22-66, K6s, JTo (shares some straights, so more ties) all look even better than 0.4 for me. Frankly, I read him for Ax, with x likely to be 7 or less (a 50% shot, mathematically).

Ok, so maybe calling down was not a strategic error. But I wonder if you folks are putting enough emphasis on two things:

1.) that I could catch a good next hand if I fold and double up there, or:
2.) that the blinds are going up soon, and if manipulated correctly could hit one player for over half his stack, and the other for about half, WITH BIG STACKS IN STEAL POSITION. Chip leader and #3 or so would be Button &amp; CO when the smaller stacks get hit by the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sometimes people try to apply ring-game strategy to tournaments, which can be difficult.

The way I look at things are like this:

If I call and I lose, I'm out, no next hand to make back the money lost, no handshake, thanks for playing all these hours, see ya!

Your hand was certainly playable heads-up for a shot at doubling up. But like you said, you could wait and pray that one or two of the other guys goes out before you and maybe you can squeek into the money.

Yes, I'd like a shot at the close to $500 first place prize. But I'd also rather win 80 bucks than zero. I'd probably be 40% call in this situation and 60% fold and wait for a better opportunity.

You could still get lucky and maybe triple up your 7K stack since the larger stacks might be playing in a hand when you do luck out and catch a strong grouping of cards.

[SpeakEasy]

Fold and wait for a better hand to get into the money. As for this comment --

[ QUOTE ]
The right play, while of marginal ethics, I think, was to go into the tank

[/ QUOTE ]

NO -- this is not an ethical dilemma at all! This is a pure strategy decision, and I believe your instinct was right. There is absolutely nothing unethical about folding or playing hands in a way that maximizes your position in the game.

[MisterKing]

Well, ok, but my reason for going into the tank was purely to use time to my advantage. If I could fold this hand, and the next, while ALSO ensuring that my shortstacked opponents would face even steeper blinds (set to go up in less than 4 minutes), I would gain an advantage. This was what I probably should have done IF I wanted to take the folding route.

That said, I'm increasingly unsure of whether folding was necessarily better than calling. At any rate, I really appreciate everyone's input -- this has been a productive discussion.

[Chief911]

I spit out my pop when I saw the word strategery.

Nick

[patrick dicaprio]

you are in the BB getting almost 2-1 and you have a hand that is certainly not dominated if he doesnt have a big pair. you cant wait forever and tryingto fold your way into the money is rarely the best strategy here. play to win and you just might, and in any event you will have a better chance at the money.

Pat