Probability of hitting Partypoker "Lucky Hands" promotion

[r3vbr]

Here's a problem for you guys.


Ok, here is the link to the promotion:
http://www.partypoker.com/news/events/lucky-hands-current-04.html

Can someone calculate the odds of being on this hand, if playing 4 tables for a period of 5 hours?

And also, what is the expected value added per hand played?

[r3vbr]

no replies?

[illunious]

I'll take a shot..

55 hands/hr * 5 hours * 4 tables = 1100 hands

1100:98900, or 1:90

[r3vbr]

where did 98900 come from?

[TKid]

[ QUOTE ]
where did 98900 come from?

[/ QUOTE ]

Its the 100,000 hands less the 1100 you would be playing.

[r3vbr]

This would be true if there was only one "lucky hand" in the night. But there are LOTS of lucky hands (each 100,000 that passes is a lucky hand)

[pzhon]

Each hand you play during the promotion has about a 1/100,000 chance of being one of the lucky hands. The probability that you hit a lucky hand is roughly #hands/100,000.

The value to you per hand depends on the number of other players at the table. At a full table, the value if you hit is $1400 for the table, or $140 per person. At a short-handed table, the value would be greater per person. Getting $140 1/100,000 of the time is worth 0.14 cents.