Nut No-Pair

[toby]

8-handed Party 2/4.
Player is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Folds around to TAG who has recently suffered 2 suckouts by the same loose player in big pots (~12 BB) and is down a fair amount. TAG raises, Player reraises and TAG calls. Pot is heads up, 7SB.

Flop: 4/images/graemlins/club.gif J/images/graemlins/spade.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
Player bets, TAG raises, player calls.

Turn (5.5BB): 5/images/graemlins/club.gif
Player bets, TAG raises, player calls.

River (9.5BB): J/images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player checks, TAG bets, player....


What are the chances of being ahead? Worth a call?

[gaming_mouse]

Fold

[Shillx]

You don't give the TAG's position here. Is he MP, button, etc?
I don't understand your line in this hand, but there is no way I'm calling on the end.

[Grease]

I couldn't get my cards into the much fast enough on this one. It's not close.

[bdk3clash]

This turn bet sucks out of position. Fold the river--no way you want to put 3 bets in on the turn+river with AK unimproved.

[JohnShaft]

[ QUOTE ]
What are the chances of being ahead? Worth a call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ask yourself a question. What hands does a TAG raise on the Turn here that you can beat? None? Yeah that's what I thought.
You'd have to hope he had the *miracle* AK/AQ /images/graemlins/club.gif. And against the AK you're splitting.

If he's a good player he's not going to go crazy tilt after two suckouts.

[toby]

To Shills, the TAG was in the CO.

To all: These are exactly the answers I expected. I posted the hand in reverse, I was the TAG with KQs. Flopped a flush draw and OESD and 2 overs. His bets seemed a little fishy so I raised (okay plus I was a little irritated about the outdraws earlier so I was over-aggro).

Anyway when he called I figured I was beat, but when he showed Ace-high I was shocked. No respect! At least a pair of 2's like a normal fish would be nicer to lose to.

If I was him, I would have been out of there so fast. I would call the flop raise, then check/fold the turn unimproved.

Anyway, just trying to figure out what exactly he was thinking. My PT stats on the villain with AK were TA-N after 80 hands. (During this hand, I only had ~30 on him) Maybe my poker guy avatar at the table was giving off a bluffing tell. His call-down stumped me, especially given that his play in general was not that of a calling station.

[toby]

To myself: my play of the hand was not exactly representative of a TAG, more like a maniac postflop at least. To hijack my own thread, would anyone else have played my hand (KQs) like that vs the 1 opponent ever? That's a fairly strong draw but raising against one guy is -EV, right? Can I do that anyway this one time as classify it as "metagame" or whatever you guys call it--giving myself a loose table image or something?

[Shillx]

The only street I don't get is the river. Most players heads up here are betting with at least a pair. The turn was a club, but I would expect most players to either check/call or even check/raise if they picked up a flush draw here. The pot is getting so big on the river and the river card isn't a scary one -- I feel that he will call here with any resembelence of a hand.

Brad

[toby]

Are you saying that you don't understand my bet, or his call?

At that point, the only chance I had of winning was a bluff. Call me weak-tight but if I only had AKo unimproved I would never call a bet, especially against that much aggression.

The hands I showed down were solid hands, including the ones that lost, and hadn't previously run a bluff at this table.

[Shillx]

Given the action and river card, I feel like the river bluff is probably a losing play, net. Any one who comes to the river after calling a flop and turn raise is showing down for one bet IMO.

Brad

[ErrantNight]

haven't read the results yet.... but fold that frickin' turn.