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View Full Version : Questioning the "twice as good as average" rule


11-13-2001, 11:33 PM
Fossilman mentioned the old tournament rule of thumb that a successful tournament player should expect to be about twice as good as average and expect, therefore, twice as much return on entry fees. I will suggest, and open for discussion, my belief that very good tournament players are much, much better than twice as good as average. If you look at the frequency with which the top 20 or so tournament players make the final table and win tournaments, particularly players who have been doing it a very long time like TJ and Men Nguyen, you will see that they consistently make 15-30 final tables a year. Variance, of course, is huge... so you will see very good players have enormous fluctuations- like Helmuth at the WSOP this year compared to the 2 year span he had without winning a single event. Still, you will see final table appearances in the double digits even during a "bad" year.


There is no way of knowing exactly what the true advantage is, but it seems as though the top 20 tournament players make the final table and win tournaments about 10 times as often as would be expected with "average" play. I think the next 20 players are probably between 3 and 5 times as good as average. Also, there are very few "average" players... but plenty of below average players. In a tournament like the TOC, where most of the below average players can't play, perhaps the best pros are only 2 or 3 times as good as random expectation.


Craig H