5-10 river bet?

[DrPublo]

Live 5-10 game, I've been running pretty hot and was up something like 38 bets at one point, although I've levelled off a bit. I've been playing very very TA, including a couple of marginal 3-bets against a weak player. Most hands against this player I'd get him to fold on the turn but I had to show down one hand where I 3-bet him with A9s (he himself only had KQs) and my two pair beat his two pair at showdown. Other than that I've only shown down AK for TPTK or better and one boat.

In this hand, BB is waaay loose both preflop and postflop, generally an action player. I've played NL with him only once before and got involved in the following big pot: I had raised in LP with KK he calls in MP, flop is Txx rainbow, the action went check/bet pot/raise/push and he called with TQo. Yeah, THAT kind of player.

Anyway, I raise UTG+1 with J /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif, LP calls, SB folds, BB calls.

Flop: (6SB) 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets, I raise, LP folds, BB 3-bets, I call.

Turn: (6BB) [7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif] 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

BB checks, I bet, BB raises, I 3-bet, BB calls.

River: (12BB) [7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif] 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks, I.....

Comments on all streets appreciated.

The Doc

[Chaos_ult]

I think this is a clear value bet on the river.

[mtdoak]

This is a clear check. You are unsure whether you have the best hand or not. Anything he will call with is very likley at worse a chop. Betting gains nothing. You have the oppurtunity for a cheap showdown. Take it.

[edtost]

he sounds like the type to checkraise with a 6. bet and call it.

[Chaos_ult]

You don't think he's calling with Pocket Queens or somthing here? What about pocket kings? The poster said he was way too lose preflop and postflop. I think he's calling down with a lot here.

[Evan]

Are you kidding? Easiest. Bet. Ever.

[mtdoak]

He also sounds like a person who will check raise a flush draw on the turn, 3 bet with QJ or KJs or AJs. If you bet, chances are he will check raise. Risking 2 BB just doesn't seem wise.

[Chaos_ult]

You have to realize you're way ahead here far more often than you're behind. This is a clear bet

[mtdoak]

Here:

http://www.internettexasholdem.com/poker-tips/poker-articles/top-10-mistakes-of-online-players-%235/

And Here:

http://www.chrisferguson.com/cgi-bin/tipsupdate.cgi

With the flush showing against a crazy player, why not just check? Does he have a 6? Maybe. Does he have QJ? Probably not, the flop would have been capped. Would he check a flush here? Most definatly. Your agression on the turn says you have a great hand, which you do and he is expecting a bet. If he made his flush, you are putting 2 bets into a 12 BB pot. If you are 83.3% sure you have the best hand, bet. I just don't think I would be here

[DrPublo]

[ QUOTE ]
This is a clear bet

[/ QUOTE ]

Well at first I thought it was too. So he checked to me, and I picked up two chips from my stack, then put them back down, then realized that I'm ahead far more than behind, and bet.

Before the chips hit the felt he shouts "raise". Dammit. I come close to mucking but then realize that he could be trying to take me off my straight. I reluctantly call and he tables A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif for the nut frush.

Ni han.

THe more I think about it when the turn goes 3 bets I have to be figuring to chop, right? And possibly getting freerolled in diamonds? I think I should have checked.

Thanks for the comments.

The Doc

[mtdoak]

Two points for me! /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Jeff W]

Pay no attention to the monsters under the bed. This is an easy value bet/call raise against the player you described.

[ErrantNight]

you're wrong. this is a clear bet. he could be on other draws. he could have an overpair. he could have that elusive QT again.

you're seeing monsters.

getting raised would be bad, checking this through would be horrible.

further, these two example are horrendous misappropriations of this advice.

this isn't a medium strength hand, and his opponent is a LAG who's betting or raising or calling most hands. he'll still be ahead a good portion of the time he's raised. and he'll get called and win even more.

BET.

[MoreWineII]

Easy bet, imo.

[ErrantNight]

[ QUOTE ]
Well at first I thought it was too. So he...

[/ QUOTE ]

you're joking, right? don't be results-oriented, that's totally unhelpful.

[ErrantNight]

and you're horrendous if you're encouraging that kinda thought. and you're missing out on a lot of money.

[bisonbison]

Just so we're clear, Ferguson's first piece of advice on that page is bad, but his second:

"2. Never bet your medium strength hands.

When you have what you think is the best you bet hoping to get called. When you know you have the worst hand you want to bet frequently as a bluff, hoping for the better hand to fold. An average hand doesn't work either way. You can't get better hands to fold and your chance of getting weaker hands to call is too slim to justify a bet. Just check it down and hope your hand is good enough to drag in the chips."

Is suicide at limit hold'em.

[Avatar]

Your wrong here. That was the clearest of clear value bets.

[DrPublo]

Right but when I get called am I good more than 50% of the time? For some reason the thought of getting freerolled really popped into my head when he checked to me on the river, but then that QTo hand got back into my head and I realized he's calling with 2 pair here, so I bet.

Didn't work out this time but I'll get this guy's money eventually.

Thanks all for the help.

The Doc