a hand

[joker122]

party 5/10 full

i'm in the BB with 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG raises, CO cold calls, SB folds, I call. 3 to the flop for 6.5 SB.

FLOP; A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check, UTG bets, button folds, I call.

TURN: 6 /images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet, he calls.

RIVER: 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I bet, he calls.

this ok?

[Kluddeludde]

In the heat of battle, I would muck this without a second thought, but when you think about it, I don't think it's that bad.

Given that both A /images/graemlins/club.gif and K /images/graemlins/club.gif is on the board and that your opponent is sane (he is, isn't he?), he has at most one /images/graemlins/club.gif in his hand, either Q /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif or T /images/graemlins/club.gif. That is 18 (AQc (3), AJc (3), KQc (3),QQc (3), JJc (3) ,TTc (3)) holdings with a club, against 42 hands (AA-TT (15), AKo-AJo (18) AKs-AJs (9)), without a club. Which means you are a 42-18 favourite over his range of hands. If you are behind you will probably lose around 2 BB, depending on whether he raises you and where and will probably win around 1.5 BB (a very rough estimate) if you are ahead.

I like it.

Tell me if my math is way off, this is not exactly my area of expertise. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

Kludde

[Michael Davis]

Nice hand, though I think this is pretty damn close to a turn fold if the club doesn't hit right there.

-Michael

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice hand, though I think this is pretty damn close to a turn fold if the club doesn't hit right there.


[/ QUOTE ]

Why is that?

Also, what do you think about check calling the turn and betting the river?

[joker122]

your math seems correct, but this is not my area either.

my logic while playing the actual hand was that there was less than a 50% chance he held a club. getting 7.5:1 on the flop, i didn't see how folding could be an option.

[gaming_mouse]

[ QUOTE ]
my logic while playing the actual hand was that there was less than a 50% chance he held a club. getting 7.5:1 on the flop, i didn't see how folding could be an option.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is fine as an approximation. But of course you are not simply getting 7.5:1 on an even money bet, because you still have to hit your flush, which happens by the river only 35% of the time. So you are really getting 7.5:1 on a bet you win 17.5% of the time, a 4.7:1 shot.

Still worth a call, although when you consider that when he hits his flush too you will probably have to call at least one raise on either the turn or river. So it's marginal, but still easily defensible I think.

Interesting hand, because I would muck too in the heat of battle. Nice to have this perspective on it.

gm

[Michael Davis]

I think checkcalling the turn is okay, but in the case I think your opponent is going to have a decent hand so much that he's paying you off twice and you don't want to risk him checking behind.

The pot will be about 6 big bets when you have to call a turn about. So you are getting 6:1 on a 4:1 shot just to hit the flush and when you hit the flush you sometimes lose two bets. It's not a fold, but as I said, it's close. I did sloppy calcs and was just going on memory so my numbers may be off.

-Michael

[Shillx]

It's about 68% that he doesn't have a club here. There is no way you are folding IMO. The only problem is that your flush will get counterfitted if the river is another club. My line is check/call the turn and bet a non-club river. Check/call a river club.

Brad

[sthief09]

how about folding the flop?

[sthief09]

reverse implied odds? yeah, he usually won't both have you beat, and have your flush draw beat. but are you going to showdown here unimproved? you almost bind yourself to showdown by calling the flop by saying "if my club is good, my pair isn't, and if my pair is good, my club isn't." your effective odds aren't so good. I guess you could call the turn to see what happens, but again, you have reverse implied odds.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
but again, you have reverse implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? I'm folding to any raise...

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
how about folding the flop?



[/ QUOTE ]

how come? i have a flush draw and he probably doesn't have a club.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
My line is check/call the turn and bet a non-club river. Check/call a river club.

[/ QUOTE ]

I considered this, but realized that this is by far the worst line. If I just bet the turn I'll find out right there if my hand is best. I can fold to a raise, or if called I bet the river. If I check the turn he could check behind and I'd miss a bet. If he bets and I just call I still don't know anything about his hand and I'll lose 2, maybe 3BB instead of just 1 if I lead the turn.

I'm fairly certain that my line wins me the most when I'm ahead and saves me the most when my hand is worst.

[Luv2DriveTT]

On the flop you are on the bottom end of a flush draw. You have an outside draw to the bottom end of a straight. FOLD. Any higher club beats you, its not worth the bet you have to call.

To backup SThief, this is a little quote I found at U of Alberta (http://www.cs.ualberta.ca/~jonathan/Grad/papp/node22.html)

For reverse implied odds, consider that you have a strong hand but little chance of improving and your opponent has a chance of improving to a hand stronger than yours, or possibly already has a hand stronger than yours (they have been betting and you are not sure if they are bluffing) - essentially a situation where you are not certain that you have the best hand. Say it is the turn and there is $12 in the pot and it is $4 to call (pot odds 3-to-1). If your opponent has a weak hand or misses their card they may stop betting in which case you would only win $12 (it costs $4 to find out you are winning). Otherwise, you have committed to playing to the end of the hand in which case it would cost you $8 to find out you are losing (pot odds 3-to-2). There are many variations to this scenario. The essential idea is that reverse implied odds should be considered when you are not certain you have the best hand; it will cost more in future betting rounds to discover this.

TT /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Stork]

Why not check-call the river? Do you really think he'll call here without a club? And you may induce a pair of aces or kings to bet.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think he'll call here without a club?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since he called the turn, yes.

[joker122]

he showed black nines and MHING.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
consider that you have a strong hand but little chance of improving

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Say it is the turn and there is $12 in the pot and it is $4 to call (pot odds 3-to-1).

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Otherwise, you have committed to playing to the end of the hand

[/ QUOTE ]


Some of these things are not like the hero's hand, not like the hero' hand.

(If you have kids/spend time around them, its the "some of things are not like the other onse, not like the other ones" tune).

There are a lot of bets in the pot, which equals a wide margin for error. Hero does not have a strong hand with little chance of improvement. And hero is not committed to seeing the hand thru the end.

Stop looking to make "good" folds, caus ethey poften aren't good folds. Make profitable plays. There is no shame in shwoing down a worse hand, the bets in the pot will subsidize you the times when you have the worse hand. The bigger the pot, the more often you should be showing down a worse hand (generally speaking).