No-Limit, A-Q soooted 3 before the Button

Daily No-Limit Hold'em Tournament(159 players), first place 2000+, 18th place $50. I'm in for $35.


Three partial tables remaining, 8 people at my table, blinds $200 & 400 w/$100 ante. I'm 3 before the button, I have $3700 and open-raise to $1200 w/A-Q suited, passed to big blind who goes all-in without hesitation, he has me covered(3x what I have). He's a semi-tight elderly gentleman who I think might try this move with pocket Jack's or better, and A-K. I think he knows I'm capable of laying down a hand to certain players, but I'm not sure if he's capable of trying this move with nothin' after possibly sensing a tell of weakness on my part(I'm just not familiar enough with his play). [He never stopped staring at me(Tell?), with his chin tilted slightly up more than normal.] I decided to fold.


Is folding here a mistake after putting in what I did compared to what I had left? I really wish I had just gone all-in to begin with, and from now on I probably will if I find myself in the same spot.


I finished 12th.


Thanks for any advice, Don

I forgot to ask if calling before the flop might have been an okay thing to do, or is that too weenie at that stage of the tourney?


[Also, when I said he never stopped staring at me, I meant just during the time I was deciding whether or not to call his all-in raise.]

I think it was certainly correct to lay down your AQ based on what you have said. You clearly hint that he was capable of raising with AK or JJ. Really, against and pair under JJ, you are at best, a slight dog. You could be dominated by AA, KK or QQ. In any case, it sounds like the only hands he could be on that you would be leading, without benefit of a good board, are AJ, etc. You must believe that he held better.


I think your pre-flop raise of 3X the BB is fine, standard. Sometimes you just have to release if you are re-raised while holding AQ or even AK. I would not suggest you make a habit of going all-in in these spots. You risk far too much as you will only be called by a hand that can beat you. By going all-in preflop, you are basically trying, only, to steal blinds. This shoud rarely be done with your whole stack unless you are crippled and trying to rebuild. You can try to pick off blinds against weaker opponents with raises of 3X the BB, especially when holding hands like AQs.


Let us not forget, that not all hands can be won.


Keep playing hard!

If he's not a highly sophisticated player, and playing you as a highly sophisticated player, then his staring at you means he doesn't want you to call. However, if he's really as tight as you say, then he probably has AK and wants you to fold. If he had AA or KK, he'd be attempting to be less aggressive in his demeanor.


Anyway, that's my read based upon your description.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Unless you are *positive* on you read, with T5100 to win you have to call for T2500. Even if your read is correct, you are not much worse than a 2:1 dog:


3 x AQs vs. AA: 12.54%

6 x AQs vs. KK: 32.12%

12 x AQs vs. AK: 30.27%

3 x AQs vs. QQ: 34.27%

6 x AQs vs. JJ: 46.04%


Weighted probablility to win is 32.42% (actually a bit worse as those figures assume he doesn't hold a spade) while pot odds warrant a call with 32.9% or better. A call is thus essentially a free-roll for having misread him (even the possibility of him holding tens would turn odds in your favor) .


cu


Ignatius

Is it right to play these percentages in a tournament situation? I can see it if you can go back into your pocket, but shouldn't you be looking for favorable conditions to put your money in, not just correct pot odds? On his raise, he had the best hand as far as he knew, so that was correct, once he was raised, the information changed and he was correct to fold and save his money for a more favorable opportunity.

I concur with Drew; after a million hands, those statistics will reveal themselves, but in the situation Don mentioned, the ability to read your opponent is worth more than those statistics.


I'm not saying 'throw the numbers out the window', but in one hand, anything is possible, right? Personally I've seen and experienced the 'Death Knoll of AQ'(as titled by McEvoy) too many times to favor calling in this situation. However, the ability to draw out a good read from your opponent is very important here.


I was in this similar situation in a NLHE tourney. I look to see AQ spades, blinds were 25-50. I raise to 150 in middle position, a total fool of a player raises all in automatically for about $1200. I have about $900 left. Against most other players I would have folded, but he was staring me down, then acting uninterested....After playing with my chips(which is a classic way to draw out a read) I say I might have him beat and i'm willing to gamble, he tells me to call, and I call. He had T6 offsuit, and fails to improve.


As for your fold, I believe it was correct, but knowing your opponent will help you decide whether the fold is correct or not.


Play on.......


Misctwo.

> Is it right to play these percentages in a tournament situation?


As Don realised himself, it has been his weak T800 raise into a T1400 pot, which got him into this situation in the first place. If he really intended to fold AQs preflop for an all-in raise, given his small stack, he should have flat-called (still weak play, but at least consistent).


It would be a clear fold if Don knew that the BB would only make this move with AA-JJ and AK, but that's not what he says: He says that he knows the BB would reraise with those hand but that he is unsure about other hands and even can't rule out a pure steal (the BB wouldn't have to succeed very often to make this play profitable with any two cards).


Moreover, he will have to make a stand within the next two orbits anyway befor the blinds will put him all in, and AQs is very likely the best hand he will see in this time.


cu


Ignatius

I would put him on AK or Pocket Jacks or Queens. Folding is the correct play and I think your raise was the right size. Your raise is better than going all-in here because it gives you the chance to get away from your hand if you read a reraise as having you dominated. Sounds like a solid play to me. Making a raise to two or three times the size of the blinds can be a very good play because your opponents have a hard time differentiating between you being a little weak vs. trying to trap somebody. Going all-in in this case is a much weaker play, I think.


Craig H.

I just have to remind those mathematicians in our group that though your numbers are usualy correct, as Ignacious's are here, the tiny margin provided means something in a ring game but not the same in a tournament. You can't play simple percentages in a tournament, you must play to survive 1 hand longer, at all times.

This is why ring game winners do not necessarily do well in tournamements.


Looking at the numbers here and advising a call based on them is bad advice indeed.


Keep playing hard!

Don,


I just wanted to add that since you did raise in a later position the big blind could look at it as a steal and reraise you with even a medium pair of a couple of big cards. You should notice, if possible, if he perfers to reraise late position players or call. If he usually just calls, then I think a fold is easy. But, if he exhibits the reraising behavior where he thinks you are trying to steal you may want to consider calling all-in, because he is defending his blind.


I was playing in a Super-Satelitte at the WSOP this year and here's what happened. I was on the button with AQ unsuited. Blinds were $50 and $25. Everyone folded up to me and I bet $175. I had $300 left. The small blind goes all in for $250 more. I decided to call, since I believed the small blind could think I'm trying to steal. A queen comes on the flop giving me a pair. At the river we turn over both our hands and he has AQ too. I thought that this situation was kind of funny.


But, if your opponent is the tight timid type player that needs a premium hand, then your fold was correct.


Good Luck


Mark

"and AQs is very likely the best hand he will see in this time."


That's really not the point. Now our hero has been reraised, is this the best situation he will see in this time ?


Andy.

usually this type of player has it in this spot. but since you are not sure id call. i tend to call in these spots as the antes are high and you are going to be now trying to steal antes with a saml stack. if you win this pot id assume you might be chip leader or close. you have to assess risk rewards. with 1400 a round coming for costs i cant see having 2500 bucks and then figuring on playing a waiting game. i would have move all in as i cant see giving the blinds a shot at you for your 800 raise and 3700 isnt that much money with 1400 out there and with your hand you would rather no one called giving you the blinds.