Stats For $215ers on 2+2 Forums

[Greg Zabawa]

I won $5,000 in a $50k Guaranteed on Halloween, since then I've played 451 SNGs: 26 are $109s, 1 is a $55, and 424 are $215s. Out of those 451, I have placed In The Money in 167, for a In The Money % of 37.03%. I place first in 10.42%, second in 14.41%, and third in 12.2%.

For a little background on myself. I am a Junior in college, 20 years old, and I had never played a hand of Hold 'em until about 8 months ago. It was a real grind figuring out the game in those early months, I made several $50 deposits, and I my first real success came when I got 3rd in a $5k Guaranteed and took home $550. A few weeks later I won the aforementioned $5,000 and I really haven't looked back since. For some reason, I was able to jump right in on the $215 level and achieve a decent amount of success. At the start of November, my bankroll was $1,100, it now stands at over $16,000. I have kept my SNG stats and I have made exactly $15,151 during the month of November. My friends and I are going crazy thinking about the possibilities of what I could achieve over the course of a year or so. Remember, I only have 8 months of experience and I just recently began studying books and the like.

I guess what this all leads me to are these questions: How does my ITM% compare to the experts here on 2+2? How does it compare to an average player's? Is a 451 tourney sample size a good indicator that I should be able to maintain my 37% cash rate? Any comments and statistics would be greatly appreciated. I'm just an eager young player trying to figure out what I can achieve by playing poker seriously.

[fletch]

please tell me which books you read

[Greg Zabawa]

I finished reading Sklansky's Theory of Poker and Hilger's Internet Hold 'Em. I strongly recommend those 2 to anyone. I am currently reading Super Systems (more out of curiosity than any actually knowledge I might gain). Most likely, I am planning on reading Sklansky's books on Hold 'Em.

[fletch]

do you not think there is a lot of luck involved in tournaments

[Greg Zabawa]

If there weren't luck involved, I guess I'd win every one. Sorry, that was a Hellmuth quote, but there is a lot of truth to it. Luck is a huge factor, but you cannot control it, so there's no reason to worry about it. You might lose with AA to 99 one time, but you will win in that situation 4 times for every 1 you lose. I learned early on if you let the beats get to you (and there are many) you better find some other method of making money. Being level headed is essential to be a successful poker player.

[byronkincaid]

imo it could still be short term luck, you'll obviously know more after 1000. Why not stick 10k away in an account somewhere just in case, so you can't lose it all. It's certainly possible that you've got a knack for playing these, some of the best players on here are teenagers. Have you had days where you get bad beat after bad beat after bad beat? They do happen. GL in the WSOP sng. I'm planning on being in it next month.

[adanthar]

Your ITM is not important. You want to know what your ROI (return on investment- your winnings divided by the buyin) is. As of today, I estimate it's a little over 10%.

That's sustainable at the $215 level (in fact, the max you can do is probably around 15%) but you will have huge downswings that last hundreds of tournaments. You also won't truly know whether you are a winning player for a long time.

However, if you can handle losing 10k in a month, go for it.

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
Your ITM is not important. You want to know what your ROI (return on investment- your winnings divided by the buyin) is. As of today, I estimate it's a little over 10%.

That's sustainable at the $215 level (in fact, the max you can do is probably around 15%) but you will have huge downswings that last hundreds of tournaments. You also won't truly know whether you are a winning player for a long time.

However, if you can handle losing 10k in a month, go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

losing 10K a month? that almost 47 buy-ins. no one should be playing $215s if they get down that much simply because of "if you can handle it".

[Greg Zabawa]

Yes, I do have days where I feel like a walking bad beat. Yesterday, for example, I had AA 4 times all day. Each time I raised so I was all-in with 1 caller, or saw the flop with one caller, and I lost all 4. The hands were QJs, Q9o, 77, 33. In fact, one hand the blinds were 25/50, and some crazy lady moves in with 860 chips UTG with QJs. I mean there's simply no excuse for a play that poor. The blinds aren't worth stealing and you'll only get called by a hand you're dominated by. Needless to say I call with AA and lose to a flush. Usually if I sense a day if gonna be rough I'll cut down the tournaments I play.

[Greg Zabawa]

[ QUOTE ]
Your ITM is not important. You want to know what your ROI (return on investment- your winnings divided by the buyin) is. As of today, I estimate it's a little over 10%.

That's sustainable at the $215 level (in fact, the max you can do is probably around 15%) but you will have huge downswings that last hundreds of tournaments. You also won't truly know whether you are a winning player for a long time.

However, if you can handle losing 10k in a month, go for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like insane advice to me. I know I've only played 450 tourneys, but a downswing of 10k in a month??? Sure it's possible, but it doesn't seem likely. Usually I will have a day every know and then where I lose $1200 or $800, but it's followed by a string of 2-5 days where I gain back $2,000. Obviously I'll know more as time goes on, but I don't think I play a risky style which helps cut down the variance.

[adanthar]

The most prolific 215 player that's posted his numbers here is probably Daliman, with well over 2500 SNG's and a 12% ROI.

He plays more than most people (up to 50 per day and once did a 100 day as a challenge), and his biggest downswing was in the 8500 range.

With only a 10% advantage, it is statistically almost inevitable that you will have a run where you're a 20% loser over a decently long (100-200+ tournaments) period of time and somewhat likely it will be deeper and larger than that.

YMMV, but if you don't accept this and are not able to play through it when it happens, you're almost certainly going to be back here ranting about how Party's rigged in six more months.

[Jedi Flopper]

You have not played a statistically significant number of tourneys yet to determine if you are a winning player. Your results are awesome for your level of experience but I would not put too much stock in those results yet.

If I may make a suggestion, take $55 or your winnings and buy Poker Tracker http://www.pokertracker.com (I hope this does not qualify as spam...I am in no way affiliated with the product, just a very happy customer)

Congrats on your results and may the force continue to be with you /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
The most prolific 215 player that's posted his numbers here is probably Daliman, with well over 2500 SNG's and a 12% ROI.

He plays more than most people (up to 50 per day and once did a 100 day as a challenge), and his biggest downswing was in the 8500 range.

With only a 10% advantage, it is statistically almost inevitable that you will have a run where you're a 20% loser over a decently long (100-200+ tournaments) period of time and somewhat likely it will be deeper and larger than that.

YMMV, but if you don't accept this and are not able to play through it when it happens, you're almost certainly going to be back here ranting about how Party's rigged in six more months.

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe Daliman has had such big downswings because he played so much in so little time. if hadly see a player being able to focus their all into the SNGs their playing if you're playing that many SNGs a day. my ROI and ITM% are both higher when i play less (even if i'm multi-tabling) than when i'm playing alot. sure it's possible to loss 10K, but to do that, i think you're either overextending yourself (without enough focus on what you're doing) or you're playing crappy poker. after all, with being one of the most prolific, i'm pretty sure Daliman also thinks he's a very good $215er.

[eastbay]

On this guy's "I don't know what happened, I'm stuck $25k" post? Six months?

Greg: seriously. You need to learn about the variance of SnGs before you get in over your head. That you are questioning (I think your word was "insane") a $10k drop after only showing 10% ROI over a few hundred SnGs shows you don't know the basics yet.

You don't know how many people have posted about their short-term results in the $215s. This is often followed up later on by a story of woe, some of which are very serious.

I wish you the best of luck, but hope you aren't banking too much on your results so far.

eastbay

[Greg Zabawa]

I appreciate the advice, and I'm not taking too much stock in my results, I've been withdrawing a grand here and there and even if I go broke with my current bankroll, I will be $4500 richer than I was at the start of this month. Obviously, I don't know everything there is to know about SNGs b/c I'm just starting. I appreciate the advice, and I'll update you on how I'm doing after I have a better sample size.

[Desdia72]

[ QUOTE ]
I appreciate the advice, and I'm not taking too much stock in my results, I've been withdrawing a grand here and there and even if I go broke with my current bankroll, I will be $4500 richer than I was at the start of this month. Obviously, I don't know everything there is to know about SNGs b/c I'm just starting. I appreciate the advice, and I'll update you on how I'm doing after I have a better sample size.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm sure you'll do fine. the key thing is, concentrate on getting better and don't get above yourself. playing in the big leagues CAN and WILL wreck havoc on a bankroll. start talking to more experienced $109 and $215 players about bankroll management. there's nothing saying that you can't sustain and better your current ROI.

[eastbay]

Cool. I don't mean to come off as an ass, I just hate to see people lose a chunk without knowing what hit them. It happens a lot.

eastbay

[Ryendal]

everybody seems thinking it's not possible ...
Really ?
He played 400 games, well that means something.
Nothing special to be a winning player a 215$ after few months.

[hhboy77]

greg. congrats on your good results.

by my caluclations, you've only won about $10k in your 451 sng's. this is only an approx because i considered all your tournaments to be 215s and didn't take into consideration the mixed game. did you add your $5k halloween win in there?

out of curiosity, how many are you multitabling at once and how many hours have you put in this month.

[Greg Zabawa]

[ QUOTE ]
greg. congrats on your good results.

by my caluclations, you've only won about $10k in your 451 sng's. this is only an approx because i considered all your tournaments to be 215s and didn't take into consideration the mixed game. did you add your $5k halloween win in there?

out of curiosity, how many are you multitabling at once and how many hours have you put in this month.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks hhboy, your calculations are absolutely correct I am including the $5k in my +/- for the month. For the first 18 days of this month I had been 4 tableing. In the past 3 days I have been 8-tableing, 4 at both EP and PP. Thus, if you break it down, I've probably logged about 110 hours over 21 days, or a little over 5 hours a day.

[1C5]

Congrats!!! Great results so far. What level of SnGs did you start at and how quickly did you move up levels? How many hours a day do you play now? Don't skip all your classes. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ZebraAss]

I am in your same boat. This is my first month in 200+15 tournaments. I lost 5k in one weekend. Bad days will happen to you, i sware...and no you cant stop them from happening. But the good days are also nice.

Players are able to make 5k in one night, but you can lose 5k too.

If you lost like 8 in a row...stop for a while...because that is a bad sign.

[berya]

I had an avg $25 per after about 2500-2700 tournies ($30 in the last 1000).

I lost 10K over the last 1000. Tilt and simply playing bad might have something to do with it.

It used to be: if I lost 800 the day before the next day I would win 2,000. No problem.

Now: (after taking a break) I would loose 2,000 right off the bat and be lucky to get 800 back.

[Greg Zabawa]

[ QUOTE ]
Congrats!!! Great results so far. What level of SnGs did you start at and how quickly did you move up levels? How many hours a day do you play now? Don't skip all your classes. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it all began from a deposit of $50. I never liked ring games much so I just jumped right into playing 3-4 SNGs at once, and I moved up when my bankroll could withstand 8 str8 losses with a little left over. So when I got to $120 I moved to $11s, when I got to $240 I moved to $22s, and so on. Not the most sound strategy I suppose. I had about $1k in my account and I was playing $55s and a few $109s when I won $5k, since then it's been mostly $215s and it's been a pretty seamless transition thankfully.

As for the classes, as hard as I try, a few do seem to get missed from time to time, especially that dang 10AM one, lol.

[La Brujita]

I have no agenda here other than to say you should carefully consider what people like Eastbay and others say.

Eight months, most of which without reading poker books, is a very short time to become an excellent player.

Luck can make huge swings in your game. Some of the best advice I think I read in this thread was sock away 10k or so and if you lose the rest just drop back to the 30s or 50s and rebuild your bankroll.

Just to put the results issue another way, many players on this site are absolutely fantastic poker players who think about poker all the time, study a lot, don't tilt much and have played poker for a while. Many of them have not been able to get the results you have. Understanding why that is the case is probably helpful.

My take on why that is the case is simply it is not that easy to get to that level.

[DonButtons]

I just started a couple days ago, Ive already played like 300 $200 sngs this week.

I doubt Ill be able to keep this up.

My ROI is 36%.

First 100 games it was over 66%, then it started to drop slightly.

[aeakos]

Congrats Greg, I look forward to reading more of your results.

[stillnotking]

Congratulations on your wins. Like others here I would caution you against putting too much stock in short term results. Anyone who has observed black-chip or higher games in casinos knows that the phenomenon of a newbie crushing the game for a month, then losing it back is all too common.

Keep playing, keep learning, DON'T GO PRO UNTIL YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY SURE THAT IS THE LIFE YOU WANT (bankroll considerations aside).

[Voltron87]

Despite the implications of some posts on the forum (ie a 20-30 buy in bankroll is reasonable) SNGs can have HUGE swings. If you win a few coinflips at the right times in SNGS you will run amazing. And vice versa. There are times you will lose AA to AQ, then KK to QQ, then AK to AQ. It's happened to me in 2 minutes, poof. 3 buyins in 2 minutes. You will have streaks where you are playing great, AQ always holds up against K10 on the bubble, and you get enough coinflips to dominate. Then you will be hit by the deck and go on tilt. DO NOT underestimate sngs' variance factor.

[Daliman]

Well, ty for the compliment, but my biggest downswing ever was 6800, and is VEY recent. Otherwise, 2-3k downswings are not uncommon.

GZ's results are definitely sustainable, whether or not they WILL be sustained is yet to be seen.

That said, a -10k month given his #'s thus far is HIGHLY unlikely.

[stripsqueez]

[ QUOTE ]
My friends and I are going crazy thinking about the possibilities of what I could achieve over the course of a year or so. Remember, I only have 8 months of experience and I just recently began studying books and the like

[/ QUOTE ]

i reckon you should play more - reading books is of limited assistance and i dont think there are any good books on NL tournaments

there are heaps of guys who can beat on-line poker games - few actually do it - the difference is patience, composure, bankroll and a lack of expectation and greed

stripsqueez - chickenhawk