Should I commit here?

Small nolimit h/e tournie.


Last 2 tables (8 tables started).


Ive just lost a huge pot with KK against AK /images/frown.gif


Im now in the BB (blinds are 200-400) I have 1200 left after posting my blind.


Player 1 moves allin for 2000, Player 2 moves allin for 5000, player 3 moves allin for 5000.


If I pass... there are still 4 more players to be knocked out before the final (where the money starts) assuming 2 fall here.


I have J10 suited.


Should I call?


Results later.


Cheers,


Keith

I would fold. Unless these players are morons, you'll have to hit the board very hard to win. Better to wait and try to steal pots uncontested or else get all in headsup.

I concur with DeadBart. Risking 1200 in a pot where there are three all-ins is a gambling proposition indeed. JT may be a great drawing hand, but MUCH more suited to a limit game.

Imagine being in a limit game and calling a 3-bet cold with JT to see the flop....not a great position to be in, but only costs you 3 small bets to see the flop. In No-Limit however, that play will cost you many many more times just 3 small bets; it will cost you your stack and your sanity.


Playing JT as if it were the best darned multi-way drawing hand will just disappoint you. when there are three all in's, you're playing against PREMIUM hands(unless those players are gamblers themselves), such as AK, KK AA QQ, JJ. NOW how do you feel about your JT????


I saw this situation come up early in a small satellite about a week ago. The blinds were 10-25, everyone had about 500 in front of them. In ONE hand, there were 5 all-ins. The hands were KK, AK suited, QT offsuit, AJ offsuit, and some other shitty hand. YOWZA....KK ends up taking the 2500 pot down. Players who had the QT and AJ said they were getting 'odds'. REDICULOUS. calling several all-ins with QT or JT is suicide indeed. If you're looking for Lady Luck, try the Caribbean Stud.


Turns out this guy with KK in that hand was Sam Haddad, last years Foxwoods $550 limit event winner, a good player but a bit loose and he ended up losing the satellite.

I would pass on this one. You could quadruple your stack here but, do you want to risk it with a drawing hand against 2-3 big hands. You are in an uphill battle. You just posted your big blind and have another time around the table waiting for bigger cards to go all in with or for others to knock each other out.

I think this is a very good question. I really don't know how often JTs will win against 3 other hands, especially when we weight them towards being mostly premium hands. Let's just say that if somebody can do the simulation and JTs wins about 20% of the time or better, I'd say make the call. I'm just not sure if it will win that often. I just ran a couple of quick simulations where the 3 hands were like AA, QQ, and AK, and JTs only won about 18%. When I changed the AA to A9s (different suit than JTs), the JTs still only won about 18%. It is probably correct to fold. But, if you had put up 400 and only had 800 left, I'd make the call with (almost?) any 2 cards.


Key factors are the odds of coming back from 1200, or more importantly, 1000 (since you're likely going to be giving up your small blind the next hand). How much chance, if any, is there that you can steal the blinds in one of your next few hands when you raise all-in to 1000? If there's none, then I am more likely to go for it with the JTs. If you can steal your way out of this spot some of the time, then I'd be more inclined to pass the JTs, and try to do that instead.


Another key is the total number of chips in play. If you fold your way down to 1000, how many hands is it likely to take before you get into the money? If the stacks average out to 5000 or more, then you'll likely have a long wait for that many people to go broke, meaning you'll have to win some real chips in the next orbit or two to make it.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Keith,


Think about this: You have 1200 in chips left. If your table is full, then there are either 9 or 10 others at the table. If no-one chops, then 2 of them will leave on this hand! That would mean your table will be 7 or 8 handed at most. You will see 14-16 hands until you are blinded out, provided you don't see a hand to act on before then.


How many players are at the other table? Right now you are in the BB. If two players go out, will there be a consolidation of tables? How soon? You could possibly make it to the final table only to be in the blinds again, and be blinded out sooner!


Your best bet might be to muck, let two other players be eliminated, and then "make a move" depending on the remaining number of players at the table and at the tournament. How many places pay? You have a solid image having just lost KK to AK (guess he/she hit an Ace on the board), so most players must figure you for playing good hands. Maybe you go all-in on the button or in late position to steal if no-one else goes all-in? Or maybe you let others go all-in since you're about to be in the SB and then the button and let them be knocked out by others. Heck, you could be at the final table before you know it! What happened?