Interesting Super situation

So, due to my daughter's birthday party Sunday and working Monday, I don't get to FW for any of the big tourneys until yesterday. Don't make any money in the limit HE tourney. Enter the 8pm super-satellite. $100 + $25 gets you T500, rebuys for the first hour at $100 for T500. Add-on at end of hour, same price but one or two add-ons allowed no matter what the stack size. 43 players, prize pool of $12,900.


We're down to the final 4 players, 129 chips on the table. Final 2 players get a paid seat into the $5200 NL HE final event. 3rd place gets $2500 in lammers. 4th gets nothing. Player on my left has amassed a chip mountain. He has about 80 of the chips. I have 18, player on my right has about 20, and lady opposite me has 9. She is forced to post 8 of her 9 in the big blind, chip leader posts 4 in the SB. Player to my right folds, and I find Ah5h on the button.


What would you do and why?


I'll leave out my play and rationale for now and see what others think. I thought about this situation for a good minute or two at the time, and a lot more since then. I think it is a very interesting and probably controversial situation. I am sure I can find some good players who would vote for each of the 3 options here.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

OK Greg.....before I answer, refresh my memory. as I don't remember the ruling in Super sattelites. If you, big stack SB & shortstack BB all go in with both you and BB allin and you both bust out, who gets the $2500 for 3rd place? Is it determined by stack size at beginning of the hand, or do the two of you split the $2500 for 3rd?

Greg,


In this situation, I'll assume the chip leader is aggressive, I would fold, and hope for the chip leader to put some pressure on the BB. Hopefully, the SB will put her all-in, if she folds she will have to post it in the SB and probably lose before you have a chance to. Furthermore, there is no one to put immeadiate pressure on your right when you have the BB since the player on your right has only 20 chips.


What happens if you raise all-in? If you win you may get called by the chip leader and win 45 chips. If you lose to the BB, and a side pot to the chip leader, you are going home a loser. If by some chance only the BB calls you, and you win you will only have won 13 chips, but if you lose you will be putting yourself in the same situation as the BB in two hands, while she will still have chips. Since, 4th does not pay anything, you can't play this hand.


If it were a winner take all, I would raise all-in, but if she loses, she will have only one chip left which she will have to post in the big blind. Once you get rid of her, you will be three handed and can risk playing for second place since it is the same as first, plus you will already have won some money if you fail.


By taking less risks at this point you increase the probability that you will take third place, which is a significant amount.

Yes, Gregoritch, an interesting situation. I'll take a shot at this without thinking, 'cause it tends to get in the way.


My gut says muck. Let's see what logic says.


Can we eliminate calling? Why would you call and invite the big stack in. You're not looking to win this thing, just finish 2nd (at least 3rd). No. Calling must be the worst option.


OK, then move in. Is the SB dumb enough to play? I wouldn't even be looking at my cards in his spot, would you? Assume he folds. Now you get to play heads-up for 9 chips against all-in. The upside is very good, win 13 strange, get to 31, two sets of blinds. The downside is very bad, though, lose 9 chips, down to 9, short-stacked and have to take blinds. Odds to finish 4th go way up.


Consider folding. Assume blinds play, BB all in, 50% chance to grab 3rd right now. Even if BB doubles up, guy on right has to sweat blinds first. Assume a 50% chance that he goes broke to blinds b4 I do (and it has to be more, as he'll have 'em twice if neither of us play another hand). That makes me better than 3-1 to finish 3rd right now by doing nothing. My chances of finishing 2nd right now have to better than the chip count, and are probably better than even money.


If I knew what I was doing, I could even calculate my equity from folding right now. Conservatively, it might be 50%(5200) + 75%(2500) = 3750.


So, for raising to be correct, it would have to improve my equity beyond that amount. I won't bother to do the assumptions and the math anymore because I no longer think it's close. The increased chances of finishing 4th have to outweigh any other factor in the equation.


Fold.


dangerous dan

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who is wrong more than most people only because he tries harder /images/smile.gif

If the SB is a smart player who'll understand.....then call is in order...BB is a raise of "1" chip threat. BB being smart will just call and just check it down without the nutz.


If he isn't smart, and you can't count on him playing well...then the next question is, will he fold to your raise?

If so raise, you are good vs a random blind.


Oherwise muckit.

I think it a mistake to allow the SB to do your job for you. I think an allin raise by you would get the BB head up. I think this play would maximize your chances of finishing second at this moment. This play increases your risk of busting out but the reward to risk ratio seems favorable.

First, no matter what her hand, she will play. Second, given that she can have any two cards you will only win the pot about 60 percent of the time against her. Third, the small blind might play and really mess things up for you.


So given your chip position and the fact that the penalty to you for losing the hand is so large, I would throw my hand away. In tournaments, especially late in a tournament, it is often correct to attack small stacks, but not tiny ones.

Dan,


Basically my gut is to fold too and I agree with your reasoning, but as a pedant :-) I can't help pointing out that your equity calculation is wrong. Too many % ! If you think you have a 75% chance of finishing at least third and a 50% chance of winning a seat, your equity is (50%)(5200) + (25%)(2500) = 3225. Hope this is clear.


Andy.

4th place is out of the question. You simply must make 3rd here. She loses this she will have only 1 chip left. (Are there antes? Will she be all-in on next hand?) Probably if she loses, she'll make stab at something b4 her blind, but if not, she'll be all-in with no equity on her next blind, BUT BEFORE YOU!. Most likely if you fold, the chipleader, if he's any kind of player, puts her all-in and if he knocks her out you make 3rd and can run wild from that point on...you're free rollin. So you have to dump this hand, IMO, no question.


The only bummer is if she wins here. Now you 3 are all about even and you got to play on. But with your skill level, you have an advantage.


I think this one is easy. Dump it and cheer on the player on your left.


Now I'm gonna go read the other responses.


Keep playing hard!

I just read the other responses and it seems that most of us agree that a fold is in order. But what if you did call?


Several scenarios.


1. You call and lose, heads-up to her. Now you'll be all-in on your big blind.

2. You call and the SB raises, you either go all-in or fold (how could you possibly fold then?), either way she gets better value. So you call his raise and maybe get lucky and get a few chips while knocking her out, but she may fold and then you get knocked out? She get's 3rd.

3. You raise all-in, and get heads up with SB or her. Either way, if you lose, you're F____D!


Could you possibly live with yourself if you get knocked out before her because you played this hand. By playing it, you take a fair chance of losing and being out b4 her. By mucking you are giving yourself every opportunity to outlast her.


Muck it!

I forgot to mention.


As Myrtle asked, what if she and I both go broke to the big stack? At FW, chip counts don't matter, we split the money. So, we'd each get 1250 in lammers/cash.


As was also alluded to, what about the SB (big stack)? If I fold, I'm sure he'll put her all-in with any two cards, which means that if she calls with anything, it's a coin-flip. She is tight, too tight actually for some situations, and she might fold a garbage hand here, hoping to get lucky in the SB instead. I wouldn't expect her to do it much, but she might fold 10% of the time. If I call or raise, the SB still might come in with a wide variety of hands, almost any 2. I'm not sure of this, however, as doing so would allow her to fold and hope she lucks into 3rd place, and could cost him about 1/4 of his stack (and make me real dangerous to him in future hands).


Sorry for leaving that out before.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

dangerous dan wrote:

"If I knew what I was doing, I could even calculate my equity from folding right now. Conservatively, it might be 50%(5200) + 75%(2500) = 3750. "


Obviously I don't. Either that, or I've found a way to cash out of tournaments %125 of the time.


dangerous dan

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just testing you guys /images/smile.gif

Good post Greg, tough place to be in.


Here's what I would do. I think...


- RAISING -


A5s on the button is usually a raising hand. But given the description of the SB (he will probably call), and the fact that this is a super and not a typical tournament, i.e. the payout is the same for 2nd or 1st, I think this is the worse of the 3 options. You do not want to goe against both the SB and the BB Not with A5s. Or worse yet, have the SB call and let the BB fold with 1 chip left.


- CALLING -


It's pretty rare that calling is better than raising but I think this could be one of them, since you believe the SB will probably come in even if you raise. Which would be stupid of him, unless he has a real good hand (as he can probably fold his way to a place). But, since if both of you go broke at the same time you don't get 3rd place, maybe flat calling is better, you both could check it to the river and hope she busts. Of course a 1 chip bet by either of you is mandatory on the flop. But, you don't want to do this if you expect the SB to bet with crap on the flop and force you into a tough spot again. Only if he will cooperate.


- FOLDING -


Well this is a very good option and the best of the three, IMO. If you do fold, you do not risk being eliminated and you can count on the SB putting the BB all-in (rightly so) with any 2 cards. So, the BB might bust anyway without any jeopardy to you. Also, the 20 chip player is going to be on the BB with the chip leader on the button on the next hand. If the BB lady does survives, maybe she will be forced to go at it in her SB or maybe the button will put the BB all-in and he'll call. Either way, I think there is a good chance a player will be eliminated or in real big trouble in the next 2 hands.


I would fold.


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

OK, Big guy...thanks for additional information.


On the surface, it looks like a fold here is a no-brainer as you are sure that the SB bigstack will put her allin with any 2 cards, therefore putting you in a 50/50 position to back into at least 3rd place. Player to your right has 20 chips: you have 18. He folds. If you fold here, and bigstack puts BB allin and puts her out, you've just locked up 3rd, and player to your right now has BB on next hand, which cuts his stack down to 10 vs. your 18.


If she wins, vs. bigstack, on next hand she now has 14 left (as she has to put in 4 for her SB), player to your right has 10 (he just put in 8 for his BB) you still have your 18 (UTG) and bigstack has the button with 72.


If she loses, you're in 3rd with $2500 in lammers, and a real shot at 2nd for a full seat. As the goal here is not to finish first, but to finish either 1st or 2nd, this must weigh heavily on your decision.


I'm not sure where I'm going with this, but, are these not the two scenarios that you must consider before you determine what you're going to do with your A5h?


Other factors for consideration: Your table image? What will the bigstack do if you rr allin with your A5h? If, as you said above, he MIGHT come in with a wide variety of hands to your call or raise, she MUST (IMO) fold anything but a high pocket pair (ppT and above) and hope bigstack takes you out so she can back into 3rd. If you flat call, will he fold, flat call or rr you allin? If you rr allin, will he call? I think that's the crux of the issue.


I need to know what YOUR read is on the bigstack's move if you flat call or rr allin, before I can go any further.


If you flat call, he has 3 options: fold, flat call with you or rr you allin. If you rr allin, he can either call or fold. What is he going to do (in YOUR opinion) with the above scenarios?

It looks like you have to much to lose. Since you have a chance to move into the money, I think that you should fold with less than a premium hand. Good luck.

I have no experience in these kind of tournaments, however there are a few coming up in the next month or two I might play so, keen to learn, while almost everyone says they would fold (Greg is holding out on us as to his actual decision :-)), what minimum hand would you need to play, and would you call or raise ?


Andy.

I have never heard of Mason's point about attacking small stscks in the late stages of atournament vs. not attacking tiny stacks. It is my contention that you want to win theblinds here. If the BBwins against the SB you will be going allin before her. Which brings up another question? How many minutes are left at this level? If you raise and lose youstill have chips to fight on unless you are called by the SB. If you raise and win you have increased your equity by at least $2500 unless you are called by the SB. If you lose headup against the BB you will be in precisely the same position as the BB in two hands. You will have the option of being hte first one in on the next hand with nine chips. 40% fo the time you are going to lose to the BB. 60% of the time you are going to finish at least 3rd against the BB.In this case I think that "Good fortune favors the bold." Facinating post. I confess I do not know the correct play? Good hunting.

I have not played a super so it is not clear to me the optimal strategy of the chip leader when top 2 prizes are equal.


So in your case given your position and chips, the obvious easy choice would be to fold. If you fold, the chip leader should put the BB all-in. You also have position over the 2nd place person since they will hit the blinds 1st.


I think calling is the worst choice since the SB may raise and now you are all-in as well.


Raising is an interesting option. Although risky since you could go out 4th, you also have a few possibilities that are good for you. First of all the SB may fold and let you be headsup with the BB. If the SB does call and if you win the pot you are in great position to end up in 1st/2nd.


So I lean toward raise if I think there is a chance the SB would fold. If SB will call 100% of the time, then I would fold.


Ken Poklitar

My instinct says raise or fold, but upon second thought I changed my mind. I would call.


There is significant value in calling. This really only applies IF you think the SB is a pretty solid player. Ideally you would like to raise to 9 to get her all in, but risk the minimum. BUT YOU CANT. Think about it, if she had precisely 8 you would call, not raise. So, by calling 8, the SB may or may not call with hands that may end up busting her that he would have folded if you had moved in. By letting him in with marginal hands you increase the chances that you immediatly move up.


BUT more importantly, the SB may just call regardless of what you do. If he has a hand like A-K,KK, QQ etc . . .he may be tempted to call, BUT NOT RAISE.Because if you call there is NO SIDEPOT TO WIN. If you move all in you may just go home.


The problem with raising is that the SB could call with hands that end up breaking you. you need to get past the SB. If the SB folds to your call preflop, then obviously you bet the flop (1 unit) regardless. If the SB plays, you just try to check it down. You only bet if you are actually likely to win.


Remember the premise here is that the SB is a solid player that understands supers. If he calls your limp, and then bets the flop or turn, he likely has a VERY BIG hand, and you can fold saving your 9 chips. Remember there is no side pot, so the SB really should not bet without the second nut or better on the river. He wants to bust her (or at least one of you) nearly as badly as you do.


For example, In the event that he flops a set with a hand that he would have mucked if you raised, this is not all bad for you as HE will likley bust her, which although leaving you with 9 chips, keeps you alive.


If he moves in preflop I would likely fold despite having great odds. The reason should be obvious, if he moves in preflop he must have a HUGE hand, thus I become very likely to move up by calling, then folding to his raise.


A similar situation happened to me once. I was in your situation, and I jammed with 10,10, and the chip leader AGONIZED and called with KK. He told me he would just have called if I bet less in order to bust the odd player. I realized since then that there is little value in committing all of your chips here.


The only thing that would be nice is if this person voluntarily throws in her last chip preflop so that you can call it without having to bet 8 to put her in later.


All of this being said, if you dont believe in calling, I would rate folding ahead of raising.

Just a quick follow up to myself. The problem with folding here is that you are only 50/50 to make third assuming they both pplay with random hands. BUT, you hand is better than a random hand. If he folds to your call he probably has a hand that she would beat. If he calls your call their is a very good chance that between you ace, and his calling hand, that the 2 of you together will bust her.


Clearly if you think this guy is bad enough to bluff you out on the flop with no sidepot against a (nearly) all in player then you must fold.


If I am the SB I am going to call with a LOT of hands when you call. Not with pure trash though. This both increases the probability of busting the BB, and reduces the chance that she gets a "free" double up by a random hand (ie 23) takes on her J-4.

Andy,


I don't think you should play any hand, since you will risk committing all your chips. Even if you have pocket aces you could still lose if the SB and BB both call. The amount of chips you have at this point should determine your decision, not the value of your hand.

Good post. I was favoring folding but after reading your post I must say that I think calling is definetely the way to go. For all the reasons you mentioned.

Yes, by calling I can increase my chances of locking up 3rd on this deal. The price is to increase the chances of finishing 4th overall. I don't think it can even out.


I think you need a monstrous edge on the current hand to play. I'm not even sure two aces is a though ticket here. The penalty for becoming the short stack and having to sweat the blinds b4 the player on the right may be too severe.


dangerous dan

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who would play the aces anyway, then whine about it when he lost /images/smile.gif

When I first saw my hand, I thought "this is a pretty good hand, about a 3:2 favorite over her random hand, and I'd like to use it to bust her out." I then thought "How can you play anything here, let the chip leader knock her out and you can get into 3rd place risk-free." I then thought "But what if she folds to his expected raise, or worse yet, calls and wins?" I quickly knew I had a tough decision. Wish I really KNEW what the answer was.


I was soon sure that raising was out of the question. If I raise, the chip leader was going to call me with any reasonable hand, and she would fold to back into 3rd place. I had to ensure that she committed her chips before I did, whether it was this hand or the next.


Folding certainly seemed like the safest play, but half the time she is going to win and we'll be in a 3-way tie for 2nd, with me facing the big blind before she does. It is possible I could just fold both my blinds, and let her and the other guy take their second big blind again before me, but again this play has it's own risks. They will both win their big blind confrontations about 1/4 of the time or more, leaving me with the coin toss, and the chip leader really having all the chips (so he's impossible to avoid, not that I care who has more chips).


What if I call? What a strange idea. Will the chip leader just call also, or will he raise? If he calls, I don't expect him to bet me off the pot postflop unless he catches something pretty good, so that's a plus. If he raises, and she calls, I can call and team up against her, though if she folds I'll have to fold and have lost 8 critical chips. However, if this happens I do expect that the chip leader will only call the other guy's big blind on the next hand so that the 2 of them can team up on her 1 chip small blind, giving me a 2/3 chance of finishing at least 3rd for the $2500 in lammers.


Now, if he raises and she and I both call, what can happen? If I win (probably 40%, in my estimate), everything's golden. She's out in 4th, 3rd place money is locked up for me, AND I've increased my stack to 45 chips vs. 64 and 20 chip stacks, giving me a great shot at the big prize. Quick estimate being I win a seat about 80% of the time this happens.


But what if the chip leader wins? She and I both go broke, and get $1250 each. Probably happens about 30% of the time.


And if she wins? Well, she now has a stack of 27 chips, and will lose 4 of them in the SB next hand. But, slightly over half the time that she wins, I come in second, and win a side pot of 18 chips from the chip leader. This isn't much worse of a spot than if I fold and watch her just beat the chip leader by herself.


So, if I fold, half the time I win 2500 plus a shot at the seat, about 60% chance in my estimation. So, that's worth about $4,000. The other half she wins, and my chances probably go down to about 40/30/30, or a value of about $2750. Averaged out, folding has a value of about $3375.


If I call, and the chip leader sets us both in, I get value of about $4,500 when I win, $1250 when the chip leader wins, and about $1700 when she wins. Based on my estimates above, this is a value of about $2700.


Well, I didn't have time to do all this math in my head. By the seat of my pants, I thought I would gain value by calling and letting the chip leader put us both all-in, and that's what I did. I guess I made a mistake of about $700.


As for the results, the chip leader made a speech after I limped in. He told the lady in the BB that he should raise with any 2 cards, and that she should call with any 2 cards, and that I should then call with any 2 cards. He raised, she agonized a long time before calling, and I called quickly. We turned our hands over immediately (FW's new rule, whenever the action is over and somebody is all-in, all hands must be shown immediately) and the chip leader had As5c, and the BB had Th8h. So, her flush draw was no good, but any T or 8 would be good if we both missed. Fortunately, and despite her flopping a gutshot straight draw, she missed everything, and I gained 4 chips from splitting the pot. The next hand the other guy had the BB with a dead small. I folded and the chip leader folded. Next hand we had a dead button with the other guy in the small and me in the BB. The chip leader folded again, and the other guy went all-in (I hated this). I then looked down, and saw two lovely black kings, and called. The other guy had JJ, and no jacks or anything else dangerous flopped, and I won a seat!


See you on Nov. 17th, and again on Nov. 18th at the final table.


I'll also be there all day tomorrow, Sat, and Sun playing in each event. I hope to be too busy with these main events to play in any more supers for now.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Greg,


Is this sort of speechmaking allowed under usual tournament rules?


KJS

I throw this hand away so fast it doesn't even look like I was dealt cards.


Ah-5h isn't much of a hand to begin with -- even 4-handed. Yes, it is probably that you have the only Ace, but at best, you are only a 3-2 favorite to win the hand -- headsup (and the BB will certainly call the 1 chip all-in).


I would imagine that the player on your left will take care of trying to eliminate the big blind, and I certainly don't want to play a 3-handed pot with Ah-5h. Furthermore, the 20-chip player may end up all-in on his big blind, giving you a clear shot at 2nd.


"Sit on your hands" is universally good advice at this stage of a super.