NL AQo hand, call or fold?

Playing in the $330 NL Peppermill tourney on Saturday.


We are down to 4 9 handed tables. Blinds are 75-150. I have T1275. Tourney pays 1 table so money is not an issue.


I am 2 off the button. All folded to me. I look down and see AQo. I raise to 450.


BB who has just moved to the table raises all-in. BB has 125 more then I do. On Friday he sat to my right in the Limit tourney. His play seemed a bit erratic like calling a raise with 33 although at the time the blinds were low so he may have been gambling more then usual. He did win a few pots against me which may have played into the current situation.


After thinking for a minute or so I mucked. I understand there is no correct answer since each situation is unique but in reviewing the hand I am having a tough time deciding if it was correct.


I probably have the correct odds to call. There is 1800 in the pot. I need to add 825. AA I am in trouble. KK, QQ, AK I have 3 outs. All other hands I am 50/50 or in the lead. If I fold I have 825 which gives me 1 1/2 rotations until I need to find a hand.


If I have AKo instead of AQo I call. In that case only AA and KK are trouble hands.


Any thoughts or insights are appreaciated.


Ken Poklitar

The guy has an erratic history, and he knows you are in a position where many steals originate, so he doesn't have to have a hand. I would usually call.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

Greg,


Assume the player is a typical player.


How do you think his stack should play into my decision? Do I call more often if he has a big stack or if his stack is slightly bigger then mine? I guess what I am trying to figure out is if players would tend to bluff all-in with a smaller or larger stack.


Ken Poklitar

The majority of players will be LESS likely to make a cold bluff resteal if their stack is smaller than yours (thus meaning they can get eliminated this hand if wrong). Some will be more likely if they are the short stack, maybe because they've developed the mental attitude of "double-up or get-up". You have to figure out which it is, or which OTHER thought is controlling their decision. There's a million of them. ;-)


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)