overlay

Question: how many worse players do you need to have a positive expectation in a tourney?


Is a tournament with all the players playing exactly at the same level of expertise, that pays out all the price money in a structured way (say 1st gets 60%, second 25% and third 15%) worth playing?


The way I see it, it cannot be profitable since everybody has equal chances of winning, but the payoff for 1st is less than the buy in times number of players.


Now, my question is, how many worse players would you need to have an overlay? Or maybe how good of a chance to win do you need?


Stephan

Stephan,


You're making a common mistake. Let me put it this way, if it can't be profitable for you, and everyone else is the same level of expertise, then it's not profitable for anybody. So where's the money going :-)


Everyone also has the same chance of finishing second (for 25%) and third (for 15%), making 100%. As stated, it's a zero sum game. Is it worth playing ? Why not, beats watching TV :-).


If (as I suspect it will) this leads to further questions then please feel free to ask.


Andy.

Andy,


thanks for clearing that up for me. I forgot to add the chances for finishing second and third. Of course it is a zero sum game.


Does that mean, if you play better than only one other player, you will make a profit in the long run?


Say there are ten players, 9 with equal ability and one a little weaker.


Then the difference in playing ability (say 1 %) divided by number of equal contenders will be your overall long run expectation, right?


Correct me if I am wrong..


Stephan

In theory, yes. Of course in the real world everyone is different !


Andy.