simple flop question with TT

[Chris Daddy Cool]

online 50/100 game

this is my second hand of the table, i have no reads on the players, but overall the table seems to be somewhat tough/somewhat aggressive/though not overly tight

UTG raises. folded to MP player who 3-bets. a shortstacked button coldcalls. i coldcall the 2.5 bets in the SB with T /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif BB folds. UTG calls. 4 of us to the flop for 13 small bets.

Flop: Q 8 5 rainbow

checked to MP who bets. Button goes all in for $77. My plan going in was to checkraise MP's bet on any non A or K flop. Valid plan, no? Does the button's all-in change anything?

[roy_miami]

Simple?!??!

I've been pondering this for half an hour and I can't come up with a logical answer. I think at the table my brain would just say "cannot compute" and I would call hoping its gets checked through or I hit a 10. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[NLSoldier]

I think the button's play should make you more likely to follow through with your CR. He is probably the classic "trying to get all in" guy and just hoping to get lucky. So now he has added more money to the pot for you. However, I am having trouble thinking about many hands that MP would 3-bet with that you are ahead of besides AK. Unless you are really confident that he has exactly AK, it may not be worth it to continue.

So I guess my finaly answer is that I do not know. However I do think it should be a raise or fold, I don't like calling at all.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Richie Rich]

Chris-
I'm no expert in the high-stakes limit game, but...

..."rule of thumb" dictates that cold-calling a 3-bet, from an out-of-position seat, in the formerly-described game, is a -EV move over the long run.

Three key reasons why this is so:

(1) In order for your call to be mathematically correct, you'd have to bet getting 7.5-to-1 on the flop...probably about 5-to-1 by the river. Chances are, at least one of your opponents will be raising/re-raising on the flop &/or turn, thereby reducing your odds even further if you plan to stick around.

(2) There's at least a 75% chance that one or more overcards will fall on the flop...against 3 opponents in a re-raised pot btf, I'd say you're in pretty bad shape with pocket tens. Even if you managed to spike a set, there's a chance that any A, K, Q, or J could give one of your opponents a higher set. But I won't go off on tangents to talk about monsters...

(3) Finally, I'm not an experienced high limit player, as I mentioned before, but I don't believe MP would be 3-betting a hand like AK behind an UTG raise in a relatively tight game. Just my $.02.

[hockey1]

In the game conditions you describe you should seriously consider folding preflop, especially out of position and with a shortstacked button (reducing implied odds if you hit your set).

[nepenthe]

Chris,

I'm not a fan of the preflop call, but given you are where you are, I suggest the following.

Cold-call the all-in. See what UTG does (If he will fold for three, he will fold for two). See what MP does (hope he does not 3-bet, but if he does, nyah). If you're heads-up with MP by the turn, bet the turn on any non-A/K card.

[amulet]

cold calling the preflop bets even out of the sb is incorrect. if it is 3 bet TT, 99 (even jj in some games) are not playable. even with the pot size mp who 3 bet preflop bets out post flop, button goes all in, utg still to act. what are the odds that one of the 4 has, aa, kk, qq, aq, jj, vs ak? do the math, then throw tt away even with the pot size.

[amulet]

just in case someones does not understand what i mean by "do the math", let me explain. the raiser, reraiser and 3 bet cold caller probably have top hands. so what are the odds tt is best. there are 6 combo of AA, 6 of kk, only 3 combs left of QQ (with a Q on the board), 6 combo ogf jj, 16 AK, and 12 AQ left (again Q is out). therefore, 33 non AK hands vs 16 AK hands. if you assume that AQ would not be played here (although you said it was a somewhat loose game), then we are down to your being a 21 to 16 dog. in either case it is not good, and when you are a dog you are a big dog.

[amulet]

This question has received responses with very different opinions. I feel my answer was correct. However, with different responses, it would be nice if a professional with years of experience gave an opinion. I know your all busy, but there are several posts like this in which the responders do not agree, and we are here to learn. Thank you.

[vmacosta]

After you called PF, I don't see how you get away from your hand here unless an A or K had flopped...so you might as well raise it up. Pot is somewhat protected with button all-in so probably nobody will get out of line unless they have you beat.

[Luke]

Chris,

Given your read of the table in general, I think you have a fold here preflop. Your hand is at a great disadvantage considering that you face both a raise and 3-bet, coupled with the fact that you are out of position.

But I'd most likely play jacks from this spot so I admit tens are close.

On the flop, I like the queen better than an ace or king, but I still don't feel good about my hand. If your plan was to CR, I'd go ahead even moreso with my plan given the all-in semi-raise.

Luke

[mudpuddle]

A cold called three bet and you're out of position. You should never have seen the flop.