Some preliminary results of my project

[rachelwxm]

Some preliminary results:
All right, here are some preliminary results for a small sample I have (all from ps turbo 15+1). 38 HHs total.

Some simple statistics:
ROI 35.4% (I know it’s little bit shaky after a very bad run last week)
ITM 47.4%
Realized equity 14.447 (assuming starting with 10 before rake)

Finishes:
1st 5
2nd 10
3rd 3
4th 8
5th 5
6th 2
7th 2
8th 1
9th 2

I have lots of 2nds finishes mostly because I am still not good at HU and lost some important coin flips HU.

So among 38 HHs, I have survived till bubble 26 times, ITM 18 times, HU 15 times.

To illustrate some of the results, I use HU as an example; here is the list of games

Finishes My chip Opponent chip Equity
1 2210 11290 29.94667
2 6990 6510 36.32
1 8970 4530 38.96
2 9285 4215 39.38
5
4
4
5
2 1510 11990 29.01333
3 18
2 6340 7160 35.45333
5
4
2 3400 10100 31.53333
1 12450 1050 43.6
7
9
2 4830 8670 33.44
4
3 18
4
2 8360 5140 38.14667
4
8
6
2 4740 8760 33.32
1 10735 2765 41.31333
6
1 7365 6135 36.82
3 18
4
2 7490 6010 36.98667
2 9220 4280 39.29333
5
7
4
9
5

Notice for 3rd finishes, I substitute 18 since that’s the payout for 9 people SNG.
So the average ICM Equity for HU is the average of last column or 15.72. Notice it’s a lot higher than my final realized equity 14.45.

Similarly, I run this for bubble as well as ITM case and get ICM Equity to be
Starting 10
Bubble 14.316
ITM 14.196
HU 15.724
Final realized 14.44

I have to point out due to small sample; these number has pretty big measuring error. But that is already pretty interesting to me.
Looks my ICMPnl is flattish around bubble and increases from 3 to 2 and lost some during final HU battle. Overall I did not increase any ICMPnl since bubble. And I also kind of surprised that it jumped from ITM to HU quite a bit sort of offsetting HU lost?

I have not yet address any statistics regarding these numbers and the possible reasons for the difference.


Hope this will generate some thoughts and comments.

[tallstack]

Pretty interesting results. It will be nice to see when you have more tourneys in for sure. It was interesting to me that your results point towards most of the equity gain taking place before the bubble and then pretty flat equity from there on. I know that the sample size is pretty small, but I would have guessed that a big source of the equity for a 2+2 player would come from bubble play.

Have you thought about looking at the earlier part of the tourneys as well? I am assuming that you are performing an ICM calc at 4 players, 3 players and 2 players. How about 8, 7, 6, and 5 players?

Dave S

[pshreck]

How long do these turbos take? Is the play significantly better than party?

[rachelwxm]

45 min average to finish. I find it similar fishy to party although I haven't play at party lately. Turbo is closer to party structure.

[rachelwxm]

I guess I only keep HHs for bubble games right now. I do agree I was surprised I was very poor from bubble on, somewhat better competition but come on where is my bubble skills?

I agree that looking at early stages would be helpful but I don't know how to divide it in a good way, by blind size or by number of people? I guess one could argue playing at 20bb+ and 10bb require different skills/adjustment.

[tallstack]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that looking at early stages would be helpful but I don't know how to divide it in a good way, by blind size or by number of people? I guess one could argue playing at 20bb+ and 10bb require different skills/adjustment.


[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. The number of players and blind size are both such important factors on how to play a hand that you likely want to have an idea of your equity as each one changes. It would likely take too many HHs to break them into subsets of few people/high blinds, etc. but it should be possible to look just at number of players and then just at blind level. I'm not sure what I would expect the results to look like, so it would be interesting to see.

Hopefully, I can get some similar program to yours working for my Party HHs. I think that the text searching part will be no big problem, but I am not sure yet how to get a program to analyze each history one at a time until it goes through the whole directory. Does your program do this, or do you have to do some manual entry for each one?

Dave S

[rachelwxm]

Yes my program read HH txt files. The toughest part is actually get HH from ps. I believe they don't send automatically.

[stupidsucker]

Can you take HHs from other players and use them for data?

If the program worked for PP, I would send you about 1k SnGs at the 30+3 level, all played with the same basic strat the whole way through. (only about 25% roi) /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[rachelwxm]

SS, that will sure blow my mail box. /images/graemlins/smile.gif Once I make the migration, I think it would be helpful to look at large data sample like yours. What format do you save HH?