50+5 Bubble: short stack has 1.5BB left. Should I steal vs bigstack?

[AA suited]

Bison's hand generator is turned off till tommorow /images/graemlins/frown.gif

50+5, bubble, 100/200 blinds. I'm #3 stack (6BB) and on the button. short stack is sb, and big stack has 5000 chips and is BB. short stack has 1.5 BB left (after posting sb).

i have KQo and it's folded to me. Big stack has been playing tight and i'm certain he'll fold if he doesn't have 99+, or AT+

with the short stack about to be blinded away, should I take the risk and go all in vs the big stack?

[tigerite]

If he's being that tight, why not raise to 2.5BB? Or is he not so stupid that he won't go over the top of you at any sign of weakness? Depends on the read of the player, really.

[lorinda]

The other consideration is that the SB acts before the BB.

If you raise to 2.5BB, he can probably see that you are trying not to get knocked out here and he can't afford to let you win this pot, so he will often call.

If the BB now does come over the top, you can now call knowing that the SB has to win the pot, and you have to come third in the pot to stop you from getting in the money.

Lori

[tigerite]

Also excellent points from lorinda, there. If the SB does fold and the BB comes over the top, I can't really see folding it, but at least you make it obvious to the BB that you have 'some' kind of hand that you're willing to take the SB on with. As well as this, I find that raising to almost half your stack can spook players out, knowing you'll call the rest anyway, and can often mean "monster".

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
Also excellent points from lorinda, there. If the SB does fold and the BB comes over the top, I can't really see folding it, but at least you make it obvious to the BB that you have 'some' kind of hand that you're willing to take the SB on with. As well as this, I find that raising to almost half your stack can spook players out, knowing you'll call the rest anyway, and can often mean "monster".

[/ QUOTE ]

hm.. i always thought a person raising only 1/2 his stack as as wasting time. if someone re-raises, he'll call. so why not just go all in?

why would others at the table think a person who only raises 1/2 his stack has monster?

i would think the opposite. if i raiseed 1/2 my stack, and someone comes over the top (especially if he's been playing tight), then I would be scared.

anyway, back to my example. i went all in, sb folded, and bb had JJ /images/graemlins/frown.gif i lost

lori- thx for the advise for only going 2.5BB raise and how the short stack might see my raise as. if i only bet 2.5BB and the bigstack went over the top, i would have folded. (would you have called?)

[tigerite]

Well, I meant from the POV of the BB, not from your own of course /images/graemlins/smile.gif He 'may' just call your bet, then you get to see the flop and if any of your cards fall, also you'll have position on him. If you are going to fold when he comes over the top, then you can also get away from the hand and still have a great chance of finishing ITM. Well, it's what I would do in this situation, I think. But only against a really tight player - if he's a typical big stack player I'd have gone all in just like you did (because he's going to re-raise me over the top anyway).

[daboze]

FWIW, I would push in this spot if your read is correct on the BB. KQo is a solid holding against two random hands, and if you get called you are not in terrible shape against many possible hands. You may even get called by the SB with something like KT, or QJ and dominate your way into the money.

If you pick up the blinds you move into #2 money position.

[AA suited]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW, I would push in this spot if your read is correct on the BB. KQo is a solid holding against two random hands, and if you get called you are not in terrible shape against many possible hands. You may even get called by the SB with something like KT, or QJ and dominate your way into the money.

If you pick up the blinds you move into #2 money position.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, but the risk is that he might have the power cards to call me.

my delima was rather or not risk the BB having goods cards vs waiting 1 more orbit and hope the small stack doesn't get lucky.

i decided to take the risk because kqo are great cards 4 handed, i'm certain BB would fold if he didnt have the power cards, and stealing the chips would help me last another orbit if i'm ITM.

so basically i was weighing the risk of the big stack having the cards to call me vs risking small smack getting lucky and surviving.