AQ-Chip leader in final table vs 2nd chip leader???

[bads33d]

Hey guys...

In a 100 person NL $109 on party poker, there's 5 people left...

Your the chip leader with 32,000 chips, the 2nd biggest stack is 28,000 and he is on your right, along with 2 stacks between 15,000 and 18,000 and one small stack with 7,000.

Your on the Big blind with AQ suited. Blinds are 500/1000...

Folded around to the small blind who pushes for 28,000.

He's been stealing a couple blinds already, but I havn't played with him much, just started to play with him in the final table.

Do you call here??

[Prime Time]

If your goal is to win 1st. You go for it here.
Win this hand, and you got full command.

PGA71

[bads33d]

Of course my goal is too win first. But whats the EV play here? I mean he can have AK, or KK, AA, going for the classic trap by overbetting or he can just be stealing my blind with garbage and it that case I only have a 60/40 advantage. Now if he has a weak ace Im looking good.

Here are the payouts
1st-2700
2nd-1550
3rd-1050
4th-900
5th-725

[juris]

You said he was stealing. Was this his first push? How many times before in the last 2 rotations?

I'm pushing on this one based on the info provided. He sounds over agressive or has you read as weak tight. If he has you beat (I'm guessing he did), that's poker.

[Sam T.]

[ QUOTE ]
You said he was stealing. Was this his first push? How many times before in the last 2 rotations?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is my question - how has he been stealing, with pushes or raises?

I would have to think that he's got some kind of hand, at worst a low-mid pocket pair, or a very strong ace. The important piece is less the push, than that he's risking his tournament by pushing against another big stack who could do some real damage.

Fold and steal the next round of blinds.

[zaxx19]

This is really really read dependant...all things being equal i fold. I really think this is probably a true 50-50 situation here(EV) and I dont think you need to take a 50-50 at this point as the chip leader. Allow play too open up wait for some good easy opportunities to lean on small stacks with less risk and possibly pick up a huge hand and trap someone. If your 3-5 in chip postion i might call this but no reason to go gamble crazy with the chip lead.

[bads33d]

Yes, I really thought I had him at the time with aqs. But Im just not to confident with my read, and even if he has like 76s, im only a 60% percent favorite to win, and I dont want to blow my chances at winning just be taking a gamble with such a small advantage.

He never showed down a hand while button raising or pushing (he mixed it up), so I couldnt put him on a hand.

[nightlyraver]

Yeah, I fold this one. It is a gamble any way you look at it unless he would do this play with a weak ace. If he does it with AA,KK,QQ, or AK - you are in bad shape and against an under pair, you are a gamble. Even against a weaker ace, you are not THAT huge a favorite that it makes this call worth in when you are only getting about 1:1 on your bet. Show some restraint and use your chip lead to push around the smaller stacks and get the tourney HU with this guy - you can always get him later. Besides, if you do lose, you're dangerously likely to go from chip leader to 5th place finisher and this would be a shame.

[schwza]

i think i'd fold. it's a tough choice, but it would be pretty awful for you get all-in against a hand like 55.

just think of how ecstatic the others will be if the chip leaders get all-in. that happiness comes at your (collective) expense.

i'd muck it and live to see another day. i'd call if it were AK though.

[Scooterdoo]

This is a tough one because he knows that you are unlikely to call his bet given the very reasons people are commenting on here so he would often push with any ace or even a hand like KQ or KJ so you are likely a favorite or even a large favorite. I doubt it if he would push with QQ - AA or AK because he would be better off making a 3x bb bet or just limping hoping you will raise him and then coming back over the top of you. In my mind you are more likely dominating him then he is dominating you. Of course there is also a good chance that he has a pair in which case you are now in a race. I would vote to call his bet, you are still going to need to win some gambles to win the tournament and this seems to be about as good as it gets. Also, if you let him get away with it this time, he is likely to do it time and time again. He wins another hand or two and he could get a nice lead on you.

[Vee Quiva]

There is really no debate here. Fold and give up your 1,000. Your opponet is playing smart poker and you really have no defense in that position. Just be sure to use the same approach when you get that situation.

Let the blinds go up and eat away the short stacks and try to get the guy heads up.

[morgan180]

fold and steal from the small stacks on the next few orbits. AQ is not a hand i want to go from 1st to 5th with.

Both of the big stacks are going to be picking up blinds from the small stacks and this guy is probably aware of it. he probably pushed to say I've got them this time, which to me seems like a hand that you're going to be racing at best. No need to do that now and get whacked.

plenty of time to push around the small stacks and wait for a better opportunity to knock him out.

[bads33d]

I folded, he showed me AKs. I ended up winning first place. The guy who pushed while I had AQ got third place, and the guy I went heads up wanted to make a deal, telling me we go all in next hand, and who ever wins transfers the money in honor.

I just didn't trust him, maybe if he's a regular I would do it, but I was still fresh and not tired and decided to play it.

The final hand:

I have him slightly covered by 2k.

I have 910s, I limp on the button, he checks. Flop comes 10 9 5. He checks, I bet half pot, He check raises 3x my bet, I reraise all in, he calls with 10 5, and it holds.

[ZeeJustin]

I call here instantly. I think this raise means weakness far more often that it means strength. Given more knowledge of your opponent, a fold is certainly not out of the question, but I think with the information provided, this is an easy call.

Many players will make this play with hands like A7s because they don't want a confrontation with the chipleader. They figure if they shove, you will only play in that uncommon scenario where you have a premium hand.

[anarz]

i beleive this is a clear fold, unless you have a definate read on the guy. for the following:
if you call you risk nearly all your chips on at beast a 60-40 shot , or at worst being a 4 1/2 to 1 dog.Plus he must really of had a hand to go all in against the chip leader just to win 2/3 of the blinds. unless he had a hand he couldnt profitably take that risk even if was very aggressive.
you are not only taking a gamble you are risking not finishing in the top 3 of the tourney, and you are in good shape to win . Why jepordise it ?
I would definately say wait for a better spot were you can be the agressor.

[bads33d]

I mean, I would call usually, but since now I play a incredible amount of heads up games here in college, Ive noticed that when the blinds get high, people will push, and it seems like a 60/40 edge is not worth the risk of losing, specially in this case because of the higher payouts from 1st to 2nd.

Plus most of these tournament players weakness is short handed poker, while thats all I play, so I figured I can fold here, and hope for a better situation.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
and even if he has like 76s, im only a 60% percent favorite to win, and I dont want to blow my chances at winning just be taking a gamble with such a small advantage.


[/ QUOTE ]

You may have made the right decision in spite of yourself. The above sentance needs to be stricken from your thoughts. Please tell me you wouldn't get Hellmuthian and fold because "he might have sucked out on you"

[bads33d]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think even if he shows me 76s, I might fold, its not worth the risk of going broke with 5th place when I could get 1st, specially since Im not pot committed.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and even if he has like 76s, im only a 60% percent favorite to win, and I dont want to blow my chances at winning just be taking a gamble with such a small advantage.


[/ QUOTE ]

You may have made the right decision in spite of yourself. The above sentance needs to be stricken from your thoughts. Please tell me you wouldn't get Hellmuthian and fold because "he might have sucked out on you"

[/ QUOTE ]