What are the odds?

In a recent No-Limit tournament, there were 8 players left at this point. An extremely loose player goes all-in. I call him holding K-Q. He flips over his pocket Queens. The flop comes K, rag, rag. Turn is a rag again. Now with one card to beat me in the deck, what falls on the river? The 4th Queen. Anybody know the odds of him catching this miracle card?

How many cards are unseen? 44: 52 minus your 2, his 2 and the 4 on board.


How many cards win for him? 1, the case Q.


How many cards win for you? The other 43.


Once the first four board cards are dealt, the odds are therefore 43-1 in your favour.


You might want to think more about what the odds were when the money went in.You need to catch a K (or some miracle straight), and you will only do this 70% of the time. Some of that time he will catch a Q to beat you, as you have seen.


Guy.

Duh, I mean you will fail to catch a K 70% of the time.


Guy.

Through the turn card...you will win 98.2% of the time, he will make trips 1.8% of the time making the odds slightly worse than that 43-1 as previously stated. However, preflop you were slightly worse than a 2-1 dog, meaning you would win about 35% of the time.


Keep Playing hard!

Glen,


Wasn't the question "what are the odds of the case Q falling on the river, given Kxxx on board?"


I don't understand the question your response is answering, but I would like to, because now I'm worried that I don't understand anything at all about poker, odds and such things.


Cheers,


Guy.

Your math was correct. Before I had looked at your answer I had run the cards from the original poster through my hand simulator which played only 500 hands (default). It was still on my screen when I looked at only the last part of your post. That's why I had the odds a bit higher, in terms of percentage of wins. After running the hands again at 250,000 simulations it came up as him winning 97.73% vs. 2.27% for the three Q's. This is your 43-1. I apologize for the confusion.


Keep playing, and calculating, hard!