Ken stole my title!

I attended the FARGO event at Foxwoods last week-end. For those who don't know what FARGO is, it's an annual RGP gathering at Foxwoods. So this implies that the field is sadly (:-)) tougher than usual.


We played a no-limit tournament on Saturday, here is a key hand, please feel free to comment. After discussing it with Fossilman, he agreed on my play. I think this is an interesting hand for the pannel. (BTW Greg, the guy it was against was the guy that finished second to RR. Still don't have his name tho...)


We started with 73 players and we are down to the last 11. They pay the top 9 but real money is in the top 3. This is what I want. I am playing to win. We are playing 6 handed at my table. There is T73000 in play, I have T4300. There are 2 big stacks at the other table so this is average stack at mine. Some players have about the same as I do or slightly more and others have much less.


We have not seen a flop in about 35-45 minutes. Just raises and reraises to get the blinds. And the occasionnal call of an all-in player. The table is tight, no loose-goose here, all reasonnable players. Noone has ever called any of my raises.


I pick up J9s UTG+1. Blinds are 300-600. This is not a super hand but since I can expect to steal here most of the time, I raise to 1500. This has been the standard at our table and it gets the job done. Everyone folds to the SB, he thinks for a while and moves all-in, a raise of T2300. My humble read is that I am not facing a big pair.


There is T6200 in the pot. I have to call T2300 and will have T500 if I call and lose. What is my play?


Also, does anyone disagree with the preflop raise with J9s to begin with?


Thanks, results to follow...


Nicolas Fradet (ThePrince)

#1: I'm not a big fan of that steal. If things were starting to get desperate, then I'd consider it, but as I see it, you still have 7 times the big blind, so you could consider one more pass around before you have to play desperate. Having said this, I'd rather make a steal like this with J9s that A9o.


#2: Once you get reraised, you almost have to call. I can't think of a no-pair hand that makes you that much of an underdog, and since he had a nice think about it, if he DOES have a pair, odds are good it's 88 or less. If you were facing 33, I *think* you'd be the slim favorite. If you fold, you face slim prospects of accumulating some stash under such tight circumstances, that 2300 may as well be 500.


I'd pray he has the AKo I think he has, hope he doesn't have my suit, and shove the chips in the middle.


M.

Call. Assuming your read is correct you hope he has one over and one undercard.


Strangely I raised with J9s to steal the blinds and picked up a nice pot when the chip leader called with 97s /images/smile.gif Read my trip report on Other Topics for all the gorey details.


So you have about 6xBB. I don't like the small raise to 1500. Too much of a chance that BB will call with cheese. I would either go to 2k or go all-in.


Ken Poklitar

I know you have more experience than me in NoLimit tournment , but there I don't understand that move , There are 11 players left and it pay for 9 first . You have an average stack , I tough that the SUPER-SUPER tight play would be the best . I wouldn't even try to open -raise on the button with that hand and in your situation ( except if both SB and BB got less than a BigBlind left ) .

The key fact is that Nicolas stated the play at his table had been super-tight, and that none of his preflop raises had yet been called. Given that, he can raise with any 2 cards and get good value. The only key here is to not raise so often that they become suspicious.


Position is also important here. UTG+1 is usually so early that you have two contradictory things going on. First is, since your position is weak, people will more readily give you credit for a very good hand, and be more inclined to fold. Second, there are more people behind you, and it is therefore more likely that one of them finds a really big hand and is going to call or raise.


But, here, the table is 6-handed. So his raise after 1 fold means there are only 2 people behind him, and then the blinds. So, the second factor is diluted more than the first factor. Add in that many folks do tighten up (too much) at this stage, and the steal-raise looks like a pretty good value.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I consider that by raising 9Js he has more to lose than he has to win .oK , supose it's a fantasy move to mix up his play . What will happen most of the time is : everybody fold and he takes a small pot without to show his hand , so the the " mix up won't have any no effect " . If there is action , for example someone go all-in , or put Nicolas All-in , and there is showdown at the river , most of the time Nicolas will be the loser . So even if the other players at the table observe the hand and see that Nicolas make loose raise out of position , it won't be usefull for him if he's out of the tournemnt or ( very ) short stake .

You're forgetting a key fact. The blinds are so big now, there are no small pots. Just winning the blinds is a significant victory.


If Nicolas correctly believes that everybody is going to fold to his raise frequently enough, then that is enough to make the play correct.


This is not the first round, where he might get called, and then get trapped on the flop for all his chips (where all the chips is 40-200 times greater than the blinds). Here, if he gets action, he is risking elimination, but he is doing so knowing that he will win without a fight MOST of the time.


Now, if his judgment that they will all fold most of the time is wrong, that's a different story.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

As I said, my table was super-tight. And my raises were getting respect. Also, noone had a substantial chip count that could afford to get fancy with and call my raise without a really good hand. And this was FARGO, the players there are pretty good, they don't mess around.


That said, one more important point I forgot to say, the BB was maybe one of the weaker players at my table, if you can say that. I had already moved-in on him when he attacked my BB from the button when I thought he was weak. He folded. My first instinct was that he was going to fold everything but a premium, he was in survival mode.


Ken, as you noted, my raise was to 1500 and not to the usual 3x the BB we usually advise. Well, the point is that 1500 got the job done at my table. My feeling was that noone was going to pick me on my offer without the goods, for 1500 or 2000. So why raise more when you only are going to lose 500 more if you decide to fold to a reraise? (depending on the player, your read, chip counts etc...) I like 3x the BB thing as a rule of thumb but late in the tournament, you need to raise an amount that will give you the blinds a vast majority of the time. 1500 was enough.


PiquetteACes, at the end of a tournament, steeling the blinds is crucial to tournament success. Like Greg has said, if you can get away with it often enough, you don't even have to look at your cards. Earlier in the tournament, when I shifted in high gears and had a shorter stack, I moved in with Q5s in the cut-off, because I felt the BB, who had already looked at his hand wasn't interested. The key, like Greg said is that you can't overdo it.


Also, I played to win, finishing 8th or 9th was not my goal as I could have folded to the reraise with the J9s and tried to survive to squeeze into the money. Nope, I wanted the title, or at least the top 3 spots. Even if I am a 2:1 dog and I will bust 2/3 of the time, that time I do win will really offset the others, since it will give the ammo I need to push it to the top 3. I think it's + $ EV to call.


I have good pot odds, I called. My opponent showed (Victor) showed me a surprizing hand KJo. I thought he would have made a stand with a better hand. I was down to 500 and out with big slick on the next hand.


Nicolas Fradet (ThePrince)

You are right that you only need to raise whatever it takes to steal the blinds. If 1500 is working then 1500 is better then 2000. The key is knowing if the BB will call a small raise.


And I guess you need more experience with your J9s raises. When I did my J9s raise on the weekend I dominated my caller when he had 97s. You found someone who dominated you with KJ /images/smile.gif


Ken Poklitar

And that J9s hand is really starting to give me trouble, it's the third time in different tournaments that I raised with exactly J9s and someone has come over the top.


I mean, I've raised with crappier hands and better hands but when I find J9s, someone pops me back. Go figure!


Nicolas