One table satellite decision?

In a one table satellite on paradise head up they pay 3 spots. Blinds at $500 and $1,000. $8,000 in play. I have about $3100 him other $4900.


He raises my big blind. I look down and see K4s. Head up a Ks is an above average hand. I don't reraise becuase he is going nowhere so I just call. Thinking maybe no matter what falls i'll bet my $1,000 almost all in because i think my hand is good and i want him to go away. Now the flop comes K95. Nice flop head up. Now i decide to check becuase I have him. Unless he has a king where he'd call anyway. But I know if ai check to him he will bet anything. I check he bets I raise all in for $100 more and he calls.


Main thing I'm wondering is did I make a mistake in not betting the flop considering that there is so much out there and if he outdraws me I'm gone. Is it not worth the risk to get the extra $1100 out of him. If I bet and he folds he still has $2900 against my $5100. Which can change very quickly with the blinds so high. If I get the $1100 from him and win i cripple him to $1800 to my $6200. What do you guys think?

Actually, I'd just bet it straight out..


1. You don't want him catching two pair or an ace or trips.

2. Blinds will move fast..within 10 hands they'll double.

3. depending on how I read my player, your check may inspire a bet, which could be a bluff, but they'll rarely reraise at that late limit as a bluff. I never know at that stage if a bet is a bluff or not unless I act aggresive. What does he do after I bet...I never check and call at that limit. It's check-fold or bet.

4. check-raising exposes you to giving him free cards..since you're playing K high and not A high (a reraising hand) DON'T GIVE HIM THE CHANCE AT A FREE CARD!


and at that late stage....just get aggressive...push him at every opportunity. Check-raising still requires you to play passive...I don't like giving them any breathing room at that point. You're in the money anyway, so rock and roll


I make most of my best steals and semibluffs with two of us left - although I'm not sure A-4 offsuit is a semibluff heads up. If you bet, then you'll know right away where he stands. But if he raised with an A and you gave it to him for free on the turn or river, it's your fault /images/biggrin.gif


rb

Even though you flopped top pair, which heads up is usually strong, your hand is vulnerable. Granted you've got a pretty good read on your opponent that he would bet. But "what if" he checked and was on a gutshot str8 draw that he wouldn't have called with had you bet the flop? What if he's on 2nd or bottom pair? Can you afford to give him a free card?


Slow play, heads up or not, should be reserved for times when the "next" card off the deck is not likely to hurt you. Hands such as sets and top 2 pairs, straights, etc. I don't like slowplaying top pairs even with the best kicker. As a dealer, I see many people lose hands they would have one had they just not been so greedy.


Keep playing hard!

I think if he had any pair on th flop or pocket pair he would call, thinking maybe I'm bluffing and even if i'm not he can eliminate me for one small bet if he catches. Its only costing him one SB because I only have 1100 and sb is 1000. And knowing if he throws away here he puts me in the drivers seat. And I think he would bet any of these hands if I check to him as well. I think he may even call with gutshots and A highs for the reasonds i've already mentioned. Although thats not garunteed that he will call. Depends on the person but my guess is most would. The hand that may fold are no pair no draw hands. Not definately but a decent chance. Is my getting 1100 more out of him worth risking against runner runner?


Oh and btw yes I tend to be greedy. Which I think is good in a poker player. But maybe not in tournaments when you risk elimination.

I think you played it right. If he's aware of the crapshoot nature of these things at this stage (I mean, come on, 8 small bets between the 2 of you), the only hands he's going to fold to your bet are utterly hopeless hands. Any hand with any hope and he's going to call you, so you end up with the same result.


But, if he bluffs with some of those hopeless hands after you check to him, you've improved your results.


In other words, don't worry about giving a free card, because any hand that could've beat you with one free card would've called anyway. The only thing that might happen is he picks up a pair with one of those hopeless hands, gets the money in on the turn, and then catches again on the river. Other than that, I see no downside to checking here and inducing a bluff.


Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

I checked the flop he bet and I raised all-in for $100 more and he called. flop was K95 turn Q river 10. K95Q10. He turns over J8 off and wins the tournament.


Not being results oriented. Just telling what happened. I felt my decision was correct when I made it. If I had bet he had one of those hands that he probably would have mucked. But in the long run its a winning play because as you (Greg) point out i've improved my results. As perfect, perfect isn't gonna get there very often. Thanks.

"Maybe not in tournaments when you risk elimination". True, but here you are playing heads up for 20% of the prize money, having already locked up 30%. Elimination is not a problem, it's win or lose. I think a check is fine, he really ought to call with anything that can win with one card if you bet anyway, and you may extract a bluff from a hand that needs runner-runner to beat you.


Andy.

If you bet the flop and he folds, your tournament equity is 51/80 (of the last 20% of the prize pool).


If he puts in T1100 with you, your equity is 62/80 * your probability of winning the hand. In this specific case (J8, assuming no flush possibility for either hand), 93.6%.


So you were correct to do whatever was necessary to get the money in.


In practice it will be much more difficult to determine how far ahead you are. In this example the break-even point is when you are approximately an 82.3% favorite. (The break even point is the ratio of your possible stack sizes: 51/62.)


I he had A8o (will no flush draw - basically 3 outs twice w/ only one of the runner runner straights), your edge drops to 86.6% - again getting the money in looks good.


C Frankel

When you flop top pair, weak kicker, heads up, and that is either a K or an A on a raggedy board, checking is just fine to induce a bluff or a charity call on the turn - IE the turn is a 8, and you come out betting. He may think you showed weakness and so he may call you with his pair of 8s.


I'd do the same in your situation every time, except if I put him on a complete steal hand, I'd shove it all in before the flop, thinking my K high is much the best.


M.

What might your opponent have?


He might be winning. If so, he's going to win this tournament right here, because you are not putting down top pair (I hope), so let's not worry about that.

Otherwise, he might have a weaker K (unlikely), a lower pair, or a backdoor draw, or nothing.In the case of a pair, he won't fold either, so if he's going to outdraw you, so be it. In the case of a backdoor draw or a nothing hand, he is going to fold if you bet, but may well bet if you check since he's the aggressor in this pot.


To my mind, the only situation in which it's not simply a case of seeing who has the best hand at the end is when he's got nothing or a backdoor draw. In that case, your best plan is to check since it lets you get the money in if he bluffs, as he ought to do.


You played it right in my opinion.


Note that the situation changes slightly when your top pair is smaller than a K since he can have two overcards and call with 6 outs, which is not unreasonable.


Guy.