stealing, struggling, surviving, giving up

Hi,


First off, I want to say thanks to everyone who has replied to my posts in the past - I think you have improved my game no end. I certainly felt I played better last night than I ever have, thanks to taking some of your advice on board.


So here's another question. I was chip leader at my table, having stolen blinds very well if I do say so myself. I had about 2000 in chips, blinds 100, when the table was broken. At my new table, I am lowest in chips. Everyone has at least 3000, leader has 8000 or so.


Chip leader is three seats to my right and is policing the game: he raises first in every hand, and calls any preflop raise apart from huge overbets.


What on earth do you do in this situation? The blinds are about to go up to 200-200, and I have 1700 or so left after posting a couple of times. Will be down to 1300 after the next round. We're 8 handed, 7 at other table, 8 paid.


My plan was: look for a real hand this round; if nothing comes up, got to take a chance with anything half decent the next round. Am I thinking along the right lines here?


And here's a particular hand where I think I need my face slapped a bit for being so weak:


on my "find a real hand" round, I pick up QJs in the cutoff. (Blinds are 200-200 on the button, I have 1700.) Two limpers to me, including the policing chip-leader. I decided to call, look for a hit, and hope to win it on the flop.


Is this a mistake in the first place?


Flop Q44. Checked to me, but the player to my right thought for a very long time before checking. I do not know him at all.


Hmmm. What to do, what to do?


So I checked and folded to an all-in bet from the button of 3000 or so.


I now think that this was ridiculously weak. Maybe the check is okay if I think I am trapping, but obviously I didn't think that. Surely I should at least call here after everyone else has passed?


Thanks as ever for any pointers.


Cheers,


Guy.

When someone is raising every hand there is a very important question you must ask yourself. What will he do if I stick in a re-raise ? If he will fold often enough then just work out the odds - example, blinds 100-100, he makes it 500 to go. There is 700 in there, say you call 500 and raise 1000. You are risking 1500 to win 700. If he will fold 2/3 of the time then you have a winning proposition to raise with any 2 cards, and that's not even counting the times you get called and win some more. Naturally if you re-raise every time he will adjust and then you will adjust, blah blah blah. And you have to be pretty sure that no-one else is going to come in and spoil the situation but that's not too hard most of the time.


If, on the other hand, he will call with a lot of hands or even any hand (because you are relatively short-stacked, because he is gambling or because he is mad :-)), then pop him with and good-looking hand like a decent Ace, two pictures or a medium pair. Every now and then he will have a real hand this time - oh dear how sad never mind, you're still doing the right thing.


There is a very illuminating report on poker pages at the moment where this guy paid $10,000 to play in the poker million, he relates that Hellmuth is stealing his blind every time (or from the blind, I can't remember, it doesn't matter), so he says "any time I pick up a good Ace or a pair I reraise and he folds". 10 grand and he can't see what he's doing wrong (or not doing right) !!


Andy.

you were right about the need to find some hand to play SOON. QJ suited may not be your dream hand, but then again you are not likely to get anything any better soon enough to serve your purpose.


therefor BEFORE the flop I would try to get as many chips as I can into the pot (you did not say is this was N/L, etc)....yes, you may get knocked out, but you at least go down fighting.


if you continue to fold top pair and decent kicker in this situation, you probably will not get there!!!!!

Andy, I'm trying to find the Poker Pages piece. What was the guy doing wrong against Helmuth? Did he not understand that Phil was trying to steal the blinds or was he re-raising with garbage? I missed the point.

It's called "going on tilt at the Poker Million" part 2.


I was hoping to leave the reasoning as "an exercise for the reader" but maybe I just wasn't clear enough. Simply, if Hellmuth is going to fold every time the hero reraises, why does he have to wait for a moderately good hand ? In particular, good hands which he will still lay down if Hellmuth re-raises ? Sklansky called it "turning your AQ into 72". If you re-raise in a situation where your opponent will either fold or re-raise, and you will drop to his re-raise, we're never going to see a flop. So your cards are irrelevant !


Andy.

Hi,


Thanks for the replies; helpful as always. Jellow, thank you for the face slap regarding QJ.


Andy: I have never seen anyone reraise the bully player. Never. So I have no clue what he might do. His reputation is that of a wild player, and he certainly rebuys a lot, but he seems to know how to push a big stack around. His reputed wildness and my relatively teensy stack would tend to suggest he'll call if I reraise.


Here's another situation that came up that round, which I'd like your thoughts on so I can get things clear. I have 1700 with blinds of 100-100, doubling before they get to me. 15 players in, 9 paid, something like 50000 chips in play. Bully makes it 600 UTG, all pass to me with QJ (again!).


Suppose I think he'll always call. Is my hand good enough to reraise all-in? It could win unimproved, but he could easily have an A or K. However, he's been in every pot. Hmmm. QJ is so marginal for an all-in situation. I am scared here. What do you think?


Suppose I think he'll only call with real hands. Surely I'm going all-in now? As you say, it's +EV in terms of chips, but I don't think that's really the issue here: more important is that it's +EV in terms of tournament return, because if I don't get some chips in my stack soon, I will be guaranteed a zero payout.

So the chances of winning the pot right here, plus the chances of catching a decent board and doubling up, make this an easy decision. How am I doing on this one?


Thanks again,


Guy.

"Andy: I have never seen anyone reraise the bully player. Never. "


Where are you playing ? When's the next game ? Can you sign me in :-).


As for your other questions, it really depends whether he is raising every hand he can, or half the time, or twice a round (which can still seem like a lot). QJ is marginal but making marginal plays like this against a maniac can be surprisingly good for your image because a lot of the others don't realise what's going on and just think "wow, that guy re-raised with QJ !!". A bit of gamble in the right situations can have good knock-on effects.


Andy.

It's Brighton. Next game is next Wednesday. Sorry, can't sign you in thanks to new strict cardroom rules. ;-)


On the subject of image: do you think a "who knows what this fellow will do next?" image is preferable to a "he always has the nuts" image? I have the latter. Players even tell one another out loud that they made a good fold against me. "He definitely had the flush..." etc.


The former image probably induces calls, doesn't it? I am thinking about Caro's stuff on "the calling reflex" here.


My current theory for tournaments is that since I get a lot more bad hands and missed draws than good hands or made draws, I would prefer people to tend to fold to my bets than call them. Plus, when a player makes the mistake of folding, you increase your chip stack with 100% certainty; when they make the mistake of calling, they have a horrible habit of hitting 3-outers etc, and you only need that to happen once to rob you of any chance in the tournament.


Any thoughts?


Guy.

The problem is that you can't go from one image to the other overnight ! I would concentrate on making the most of the image you have. How often do you get called when you are bluffing ? If it's not very often, you might consider bluffing more. If it's never, you _have_ to bluff more.


The right play against the right opponent can look mighty strange to the uninitiated and can work wonders for your image. When I was in the early stages of working out the BB steal re-raise play I re-raised this guy thinking (correctly I still believe) that he would fold enough hands to make it worthwhile. Unfortunately he had QQ and called, making me show my 25 :-). I swear one of the other players nearly choked on the spot. It planted a big seed of doubt in the minds of every player at the table and to this day they are not sure what to do when I re-raise.


Give it some thought,


Andy.