over valuing hands postflop

[SeanSkill]

I have only been playing for a couple of months and believe I have some postflop playing problems. I seem to be playing too many hands that I should be folding after the flop. I believe the problem is since reading SSH I keep saying to my self, self you also have a backdoor flush and an overcard so this hand is worth more than it really is. For instance if I have two overcards two a rainbow flop I will count these overcards as an additional 3 outs .5 ea as per SSH, however if the top pair only wins say 50% of the time shouldnt these be worth about 1.5 outs. 3 outs to a hand that will win 50% of the time. Additionaly I would love to know if any of you pokertracker guys has any hard data on what percentage of the time you will win if you make your hand. The more specific the better for exaple Royal flush 100%, Straight flush 99% 4 of kind 98%, bottom end of full house 82%, top pair 40% etc. As always your words of wisdom are appreciated.

S

[MycroftX]

A big part for any beginner is working on post flop play.

At first your major problem, is playing way too many hands.

Then it becomes post flop play.
As for the situations you mentioned, it really depends, do you want to chase both of your overcards into the turn for a SB? If you do it depends on how people are acting. Are they raising, and re-raising EP bets? In which case, even if you do hit your over card, you still might be beat. Also, is there a better draw on the board than yours? Maybe you'll complete a low straight, but is that enough?

Let's say you have AKo in LP, you raised, and had seveal callers.
But totally miss to a rainbow flop (7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/club.gif 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif), now the action comes to you for just one SB, you should call. But if there is a lot of raising going down, you might want to fold. If your AK was suited, with a draw on the board, go after that nut flush. But in this case, you have 6 outs, not 3 outs, the 3 remaining kings, and 3 remaining aces. But with all that raising, has someone made to pair? Limped in with small pocket pair, but hit their set? Lets say you actually saw a cheap turn (1SB), then there is a lot of raising, with those pot odds, and your 6 outs, I'd fold the big slick, it stinks when good hands go sour, but fold it.

I'm not sure if I'm answering the question you wanted, than again, you'll most likely get some great responses.

Try posting some of those hands where you had a big hand in a forum with the corresponding limit, and people can tell where you might have miss-played.

One of the biggest leaks, for newer players, is trying to bluff with a big hand after completely missing the flop and turn. Sometimes a big hand, just isn't worth it.

good luck in the future

[Dave H.]

Here is some info you should find valuable.

Percentage of Pots Won (http://gocee.com/poker/HE_Val_Sort.htm)

[SeanSkill]

The first part of my question was just an oversimplistic example of the fact that I beleive I am playing too many hands after the flop. I can generally figure out the number of outs that I have to make my best hand and figure out whether I have the pot odds to call in any given situation my major point of confusion is that if I do make my hand what percentage of the time will my hand be the winning hand i.e. i make the bottom end of straight using two cards what percentage of the time will this be the winning hand. SSH suggest that you guess at this percentage to figure your pot equity I would like to know if there are any stats on this i.e. what percentage of the time do full houses make the best hand, is there a major difference if you have the bottom end of the full house vs the top. Is this a stat that pokertracker can keep track of?

[Stork]

The fact that top pair may only be good 50% of the time is the reason you give each top pair out a value of .5 outs, so you really have 6 outs to a hand that wins 50% of the time.