The Madness Does End......Right?

[mcozzy1]

I'm not seeing a light at the end of the tunnel right now. Has anyone run bad for 2 weeks?

In 4 hours of play today I'm 0 for 9 when I flop a four flush. No big deal. That happens. But, my opponents have hit 9 runner-runner flushes to beat me. Are you kidding me? Isn't that supposed to be like a 22 or 23 to 1 shot? I've lost over 100 BBs today just to runner-runner flushes.

People are hitting runner-runner flushes with more regularity than I'm flopping top pair. This same kind of stuff has been happening for about 2 weeks.

Is this normal? How often do these streaks happen?

[Stork]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this normal? How often do these streaks happen?

[/ QUOTE ]

About once every two weeks.

[MycroftX]

I know what you mean, I know exactly what you mean

There were times in which miracle river cards beat me so much, I would swear I was cursed, or it was rigged, blah blah. More n' more conspiracy theory crap.

The worst thing to do in a big downswing is to dwell on your bankroll, or plays where you played properly(Was a big favorite), and lost. It makes you change your play, and possibly it's leading you to chase those flush's more than you should, and when they don't come, you feel your missing them more than you should. It can sometimes make you play more loose than you normally would, in an attempt to recover that lost money faster, and you loose your focus on patience and proper play.

100BB is not a terrible fluctuation,it stinks when it happens, yes, but as long as you are playing at limit's in which your bankroll can handle those long runs where you miss flops, or get bad river beats, you'll be fine.

-My advice would be to, make sure you have around 300BB for the tables you play at. to handle fluctuation

-If you get a couple bad beats, sit out for a minute, and watch the table (Or go to a new one and watch that table) But calm down, smoke a cigarette, walk around, drink a glass of water, whatever. Keep focus on proper play.

-And lastly, go to the proper forum, and post some of those hands in which you lost a bad beat, people here are great at giving advice on where you might have miss-played a hand.

Good luck in the future

[mcozzy1]

[ QUOTE ]
About once every two weeks

[/ QUOTE ]
Meaning two good weeks followed by two bad weeks? Ouch.



[ QUOTE ]
-If you get a couple bad beats, sit out for a minute, and watch the table (Or go to a new one and watch that table) But calm down, smoke a cigarette, walk around, drink a glass of water, whatever. Keep focus on proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This sounds more productive than smashing things around the house. Good suggestion.

[Cooker]

I assume these things happen. I have only been playing 2 months, and I am coming off a pretty rough month. I seemed to win more before I had any idea what I was doing. I have been on a little bit of a roll the past week, making 2 final tables in a row at MTTs though and finally getting back into being an overall winner. Would be nice to get a big win, so I could move up to small stakes play.

Just a word of warning, you find that people outside the beginner forum don't want to hear your bad beat stories. For this reason, I will not tell you about the time I had 3 full houses in a row sucked out on by another player hitting miracle runner runners (twice to a higher full house and once to quads), but rest assured that bad beats happen plenty to other people also. I expect a fairly good player can have extended losing periods at low limits, especially because I expect higher variance due to the low number of wins you will get without showdowns. It makes stealing and bluffing, which could smooth out a bad run of cards virtually impossible.

[TheHybrid144]

By 300BB bankroll do you mean big bets or big blinds? This would be a rather large difference.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

big bets.

[MycroftX]

They do exist.......

[maryfield48]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
About once every two weeks

[/ QUOTE ]
Meaning two good weeks followed by two bad weeks? Ouch.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he meant a two-week long bad run, every two weeks.

I also think he was trying to yank your chain. I'd say he succeeded.

[CT11]

Also remember there are 9 opponents and 1 of you. If you make 1 in 10 of your draws your opponents (as a single entity) are going to make 9 draws for every one you make.

~CT

[mrjim]

Why on earth would you keep track! Only making yourself miserable.

[mojorisin24]

Yeah, you are only making yourself miserable. Just saddle up and look at it for what it is: a bad run. Everyone goes through them, they suck, but they all end eventually. Don't lose your cool, don't change your style (as long as it worked before) and don't question your abilities. Then, when you finally win a big pot or win a tournament, you'll love the game again, and you'll forget all about those times talking to yourself recently.

[wicked]

I feel I've been in the same boat as you. I do fairly well in the big tournaments on Empire. I play alot of the $l qualifiers for free entry into the larger buy in tournaments. Try to play in those at least 4 times a week and usually make the final table at least once a week, so then I qualify for the $l0K guarantee Fri. night tournaments. I've only been playing for a little over a month....have made it to the Fri. night 4 times and placed 36th once for $60+....feel that's pretty good...for me anyway.
There's usually 300+ people that play in the $l qualifiers and normally 400+ people in the Fri. night $l0K.

Just recently I've started playing the .50/l.00 ring tables....could be that I'm better cut out for the tournaments...because I'm struggling BIG time at the ring tables.
Maybe I need to deposit more at once to compensate for the fluctuations.

Here's a bit of lowdown on my depositing, etc. so far.

Played the "play money" tables for a few weeks...got the hang of the game, since I'd only played poker once before that. Was pretty much winning or at least placing in all the sit and go tournaments, even though at least 3 people would get knocked out by "all in" on the first hand...so I knew that wasn't like playing for "real money"...I was hoping not anyway....got tired of all the comments about "it's only play money" for the pathetic way some were playing.

So decided to deposit my FIRST $50 at empire.
Tried everything on that first $50....tournaments, sit and go tournaments, etc...went through the first $50 rather quickly. Had LOTS of fun though.

I'd already decided my limit was $l00 a month...figured that was a decent amount that wouldn't break the bank and could view it as recreational expense. Anyway, made the 2nd deposit of $50 and continued playing various games...tried a ring table once...started out with only $5 and turned it into $37 after 3 hands...and the next day thought I'd try again and lost $l0 in about l0 minutes... and decided maybe I'd stick to the tournaments.

Started playing mostly the $l qualifiers at that time...it was more at first just to see how long I could last. Quickly found out I could usually be in the top 50 pretty easily and like I said previously, make the final table once a week. I think one advantage I might have, is I'm female...alot of male players still think women can't play cards.

Foolishy thought I'd try a couple of the $l0 sit and go tournaments and paid for a $29 multi table tournament of 400+ people....those didn't fair well, and it was time to deposit another $50...to date I've deposited $200.

Anyway I won the $60 last Fri. night and I was down to my last $3....sticking with my original $l00 a month limit of depositing it came in the neck of time...or I wouldn't have been able to play for 2 weeks, won't break my rule...would have had to wait until Dec. lst to deposit again.

Anyway, took the $60 and decided to try the .50/l.00 tables again...turned the $60 into $l30 in about 2 hours....unfortunately, I should have stopped there....did I??? of course not....played, and played, and played the next few days until I was up and down, back and forth to now having ONLY $11.00...also played in several $l tournaments with the money and one $6 tournament..crap, just don't know when to stand up and leave.

Ok, guess my question is.....should I now deposit $l00 at once so that I can have room for the fluctuations???? And when do you leave the table after having some good wins....because we all know, we won't just sit on the money forever, we will play again, in my case I play everyday.

Sorry this post was so long.
Thanks in advance for your advise.

[EliteNinja]

The madness doesn't end.
You just stop getting mad.

[AKQJ10]

I similarly went through a bad run in the brick-and-mortar world, something like -200 BBet. And while the advice to just forget about it and let it work itself out in the long run is sound, provided you're playing well enough to beat the games you're playing in, the problem is that I never know for sure if I'm playing well or not.

Eventually what I decided was to play less B&M and more online, where I play microlimits and can more easily diagnose if I'm playing poorly. Obviously the kind of specific hands the OP is referring to, missing however many flush draws or getting sucked out on, isn't a reflection on his ability. However, when all you have to go on is a run of "bad luck," asking yourself, "How do I know I'm really good enough to beat this game?" isn't a fruitless exercise. You just need to make sure you have some way to arrive at an answer.

[KenProspero]

Streaks like that happen to everyone.

On the other hand, you also, on rare occasion, have nights where it seems like every flop hits for you, and the chips are running from your opps to you.

(ok, more cold streaks than great nights like this, but the nights where you can't miss makes it worthwhile, don't they!!)

[Fitz]

If you play long enough, you are going to see streaks and beats seem unbelievable and brutal. I've played over 500k hands online; I average just at 3 BB's an hour in profit. During that time I've had 3 downswings of over 200 BB's and one of just over 300 BB's. I think the worst one lasted ~ 30k hands.

There will be times when you feel like you have fallen into a pinball machne, and you have forgotten how to play. Relax, it does happen to everyone eventually. Take this time to look critically at your game. We all have leaks, and when things turn bad, they will become more glaring. Take some time away from the game and clear your head of poker.

When we are running well, we forget how thin the edges are that we exploit. In any given session, one or two cards can fall differently and make a huge difference in our results.

Good luck,

Fitz

[Russ McGinley]

My advice is to stop playing suited cards. Period. Anything less than Kxs is an auto fold (with the exceptions of KT and up) and only play Axs or Kxs if you are in LP with at least three callers and no raisers. You'd be surprised at how much people overvalue suited cards in limit.

[RydenStoompala]

I'm with McGinley on the suited cards. Stop having flush draws as your only good hand and the pain will certainly ease. AK suited is a great starting hand. 6,9 suited sucks bird droppings. Also, reacting to losing a bunch of hands to runner-runner flush draws is a "results-oriented" reaction. Sklansky has written some great analysis of the odds needed to make such draws, and it's higher than you think. But why the heck would you beat yourself up over it? I'll play against people who are taking the worst of it all year, regardless of short-term results. It's not madness at all, it's just a moment in time.