Poll: Losses When Moving to a New Limit

[parappa]

I've been wondering about this for a while. Something similar has happened to me I'm never sure how to handle it. I've been wondering about it for a while, so I thought I'd try to massage the facts to raise the point I'm interested in and make a poll about it.

Situation: You start your poker career by reading all sorts of good books, especially SSHE. You put $12 into Paradise, start at 2c/4c, and work your way up to $150. You play 25c/50c until your bankroll is $300. This takes you approximately 15,000 hands. Your win rate across all levels is around 5bb/100.

When you get to $300, you take the lot and put it into Party because the games are softer there.

In your first session, you lose 35 BB over 400 hands. You break even poker for 750 hands, and you lose another 65BB over 850 hands.

You've played 2,000 hands at the 50c/$1 level, and your bankroll has dropped from $300 to $200. You analyze your hands and can't really find anything out of line. It seems that you're getting sucked out on a bit more, but it doesn't seem that you're on tilt, nor does it seem that you're playing more passively and making lots of laydowns. Your sense from looking at your hands is that you're not flopping as many good hands as you usually do, your hands aren't holding up as often as usual, and the pots you are winning aren't quite big enough to rescue you. Also, you're losing more in rake than you were at 25c/50c.

You know 2,000 hands is nothing. You don't think that there's anything wrong with your game. But you're not happy about losing 1/3 of your bankroll and you're starting to feel a bit short.

What do you do?

[droolie]

If my BR drops below 150BB I'd consider moving down not until then.

[Slick Al]

100 BBs is about where I'd consider dropping down.

Al

[scott2130]

I did this very thing 2 weeks ago, except from .5/1 to 1/2. I sat down with $50, doubled my money and then lost it all due to leaks and bad cards. My solution was to drop back down to plug the leaks, get through the variance at a lower level and rebuild my bank roll. I don't think there is anything wrong with taking a shot, loosing, and then taken a step back to recoupe and try again when I am back up to full strength. I don't think it was failure, just one battle in the war.

[DMBFan23]

I also just recently did this at 1/2, where I lost X BB over my first 1000 hands, got scared, dropped down to rebuild, and over my next 1000 hands I'm now a grand total of 4 bucks in the red at 1/2. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

that would tend to make you think I didnt need to drop...however...

2000 hands still isnt a lot, so I dont know whether I'm a winner.

my confidence was shot. poker skill and BR management aside, I couldnt have played my A game. now, after some time to Bonus Whore, play some 1/2 and some .5/1, and rebuild my confidence, I'm good to go back.

I'd say drop if your confidence is waning, or if you lose 150 BB (arbitrarily chosen by me). I lost my confidence at 70 BB solely because it was my first venture into that level. personal preference.

[dfscott]

I said, "Nothing," but I'd caveat it with the statement that analyzing your own play is insufficient after this bad of a run. You need to ensure that you don't have a leak that you can't see. Post hands on 2+2 or even better, grab a random sample of about 300-400 hands and find a knowledgeable buddy to review them. If that sounds like a lot, remember that only about 60-80 will actually be played (if not, you've found a leak). This is invaluable, even if nothing out of line is found (it rebuilds your confidence). I did this for a couple of friends when they were running bad and they've done it for me. I'd be happy to do it for anyone else as well. Sometimes you just need an objective point of view.

[VBM]

if you're multi-tabling, drop back down to 1 table and focus more on your decisions, sticking with .05/1.

people may disagree with this statement, but i firmly believe that 2k hands accumulated one table at a time is different than 2k hands over a 4-table multi.

beginners, myself included, need to focus on making good decisions. Lots of honest self-analysis, replaying hands in PokerTracker (both winning and losing; sometimes you win but play incorrectly) and as others have mentioned, posting problem hands all help, i think. Hell, that's my plan anyways...:)

best of luck!
--oj.

[ccartman2]

Great question. I'm inching closer to the 300 dollar amount in my stars account and have been debating on whether to move to Party once I get there. The big problem is if I start cold and lose the $100 dollars like you said, then I'm forced to move my money again to drop down to .25/.50. Should I stay at Stars until I have 350 and move it all, go ahead and move it all once I reach 300, or stay at Stars until I reach 450 and then move 300 to Party and have accounts on both sites?

My thoughts on your question would be to wait until I was down 150 to drop down, but I'm still fairly new at this so don't take my word for it.

[btspider]

I said Other. Drop down and rebuild your roll, not because you suck, but because you suffered from normal variance at the wrong time.

When I move up, I've had much more than 300 BB's and moved up completely cold-turkey (not mixing limits when multi-tabling). I refuse to drop down unless I eventually determine over many hands that I simply can't beat that limit.. which hasn't happened yet since I'm only at 2/4 and have worked my way up slowly.

[Ajax410]

I only feel like commenting on this because I've had a similar experience with the jump from 1/2 to 2/4 on Party. Though I am not a losing player at 2/4, I am not happy with my winrate - which is less than 1 BB/100 at the moment. This is especially concerning because I dropped a lot of money on a new computer + 2 20' Dell LCD monitors with my poker winnings from .5/1 and 1/2. The fact is, every new limit forces us to make minor changes in our play, and once you do make those changes, you will beat the game - if not at the same clip you were beating it for at a lower limit, at least at one that is more profitable. I would stick around .5/1 unless you feel like your game is being badly affected by your losses. Until that happens, or your bankroll drops to below $150, I would keep chugging along.

Currently I'm 8-tabling, and a bad streak just resulted in my losing nearly $60 over the course of 2 long sessions. This is a big skid, but the fact is, they happen, and if you're sure you're still bringing the A-Game to the table, you need to keep playing.

Alex

[Quercus]

[ QUOTE ]

...losing nearly $60 over the course...


[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you meant $600?

[helpmeout]

Get some experience at another nano limit site.

Many new players move to party too early 5bb/100 is nothing in nano limits especially if they have no or little rake.

The party rake is very high so get some more experience at the nanos maybe play the 5c/10c at stars and work your way up.

If you can beat stars 25c/50c you are doing pretty well.

I turned $50 into $300 at pacific and thought i was almost ready for party. I played the 50c/$1 games at pacific and got crushed.

I then got some good experience at stars and moved to party where it took a bit of time to adapt but I havent looked back.

[Ajax410]

Bleh - wasn't clear in my post - I moved down to .5/1 to learn how to play .5/1 - so the $60 is about right - though now it's more like -$20.

Alex

[ErrantNight]

8 tabling going down 60 is nothing

[ErrantNight]

2,000 hands is nothing. Hell, 15,000 hands is nothing.

Look for leaks in your game. Post on here. Be careful not to play on tilt. I don't recommend playing lower than .50/1... it's the lowest limit where people take things seriously enough to help your game.

Certainly don't move up to solve problems, it's only tougher at 2/4.

However, if your bankroll is a concern, you'll always have problems at a new limit. If you've lost confidence and are playing scared with too little money, you should drop back down. I would recommend getting together the bankroll for .50/1 and working out your kinks there if you can, though.

Invest in SSH, or TOP, or HEPFAP, or all of the above.

Get poker tracker.

Those will be worth their weight and gold (more, since poker tracker doesn't seem to be worth anything).

Don't get discouraged by swings, just make sure that it's a swing, and not your game. If you can't detect ANY noticeable problems, even when entirely emotionally cool and in the absense of any horrendous bad beats, you probably need to totally re-evaluate your game. I doubt that's the case.

[ccartman2]

What is the best site to move to? Paradise, pacific, other? I was thinking about moving to Paradise to pick up a bonus while I play, good idea? thanks for any replys.

[parappa]

Thanks to everyone who replied. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[PokerBob]

IMO a big part of moving up is psychological. I usually 3-table at Party 1/2. I want to move to 2/4 eventually, so I figured a good way to do it was to play 2-1/2 games and 1 2/4 game. I had a bad run at 2/4. I found that it was very easy to stop looking at things in terms of BB's and instead in terms of dollars (i.e. "I just lost $20 to a moron who called my raise with 93s and caught a flush on the river.) If you KNOW you are playing sound poker, I would stay at the higher level until my bankroll went from 300BB to 150. At that point, I may start being a bit timid and need to move down to regroup mentally.

[LaggyLou]

I voted other as well. I would continue to play at 1/2 unless you get down to 100BB. Then drop down.

That having been said -- my "move up" strategy has been along the lines btspider outlined. I started at 1/2 because I has the roll to play at that level. But I stayed at 1/2 for a good long while until I (1) had really worked on some problems in my game; (2) felt confident that I was a winning player at that limit; and (3) had built up a cushion such that I could take a loss at the next level and not feel short -- I moved up to 2/4 with a 500BB bankroll.