Commission Coach Play - A Full Report (long)

[O Doyle Rules]

To refresh your memories, and to those who might have missed it, I had posted a request for someone to coach me at the 15/30 online game in exchange for a portion of my profits. I had several quality posters reply and I came to an agreement with one. This is a full report of how my play has went to date with a "commission coach".

First off, I will not be revealing my coach's identity nor discuss exactly what he has advised me of to date. I feel this info is of some value to him and since in a way I could be paying for it (once I become a winner) it is not fair to him or me.

I started playing 10/29/2004, to date I have played over 7000 hands, losing over 224 big bets:

http://img122.exs.cx/img122/3839/gentabpic.jpg

This shot indicates a slightly worse loss than actual, evidently a hand or few hands were missed.

Took a long look at some different stats. I was minus -20 on getting my fair share of pocket pairs, which just so happened to be AA, KK & JJ. I was even on all other pairs.

AKs thru JTs I was actually +2 .

AKo thru KQo was - 5.

Three particular hands were by far, worse on EV:

AA - 2012
ATs - 1208
KQo - 1312

Total - 4532




My blind play tends to jump out of me as being very bad, at least from the amount I'm losing in those positions:

http://img54.exs.cx/img54/2843/posstats.jpg





On the misc stats, I found it interesting that I'm losing money with 1 pair, almost half of my 2 pair lost money at showdown, almost 3/10 of my sets lost money at showdown, almost 1/4 of my flushes lost money at showdown, and 1/3 of my full houses lost money at showdown:

http://img80.exs.cx/img80/4703/misc3.jpg





The filtered stats were based on the following parameters: VP$IP: 21% or less, PFR: 7% or greater,
W$SD: 51%. My results were far different from the rest of the group. Minimum 100 hands.

http://img108.exs.cx/img108/5831/filt.jpg

(Oops! Blacked out my own name in error. That's me on the bottom)


I know this was long, and apologize, I just wanted to provide a complete as picture as possible. I would definitely appreciate any and all comments on my play and stats.

To say I am discouraged would be a huge understatement. I honestly felt that with a coach my results would be far different. I know with my coach's advice I was feeling very confident. I know my play was not optimal, but definitely felt that it is good enough to be a winner at the 15/30 and my coach concurs.

Is this just short term variance or is there anything in my play that would indicate a huge problem? Once again, any and all comments I appreciate. Thanks.

[meep_42]

For Misc. stats, you need to check "Only hands that went to showdown," or it will count all sorts of hands that you folded.

-d

[O Doyle Rules]

Thanks, I never noticed that before. However, I don't think there were too many sets, flushes, or full houses I folded prior to showdown. I will run it with that checked as I can see it could make a big difference with 1 pair/2 pair.

[sammy_g]

Sorry about your results thus far. I'm taking a similar shot at 15/30 and have been considering getting a coach, so I am very interested in what you're trying.

Just to be clear, these are your results with coaching? How does the arrangement work? Does your coach review hand histories after you play or look over your virtual shoulder and advise you as you play?

7K hands is still a relatively small sample, but I would expect you to at least be closer to break-even at this point if you are a winning player at this limit. I do notice that you are running bad. Just seeing your results with aces tells me that. This game has a very high variance, so it might be too early to draw any concrete conclusions.

I am probably not the best person to advise about stats at 15/30, but it looks like your PFR% is a little low. I'm curious what other (better) players think.

[sammy_g]

[ QUOTE ]
I will run it with that checked as I can see it could make a big difference with 1 pair/2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wonder how many of these 2 pair hands had a pair on the board.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

Just to be clear, these are your results with coaching? How does the arrangement work? Does your coach review hand histories after you play or look over your virtual shoulder and advise you as you play?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, this is with coaching and it is with hand history review, not a "virtual coach".

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
For Misc. stats, you need to check "Only hands that went to showdown," or it will count all sorts of hands that you folded.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

I did this and it did not change the stats at all. A quick review of the hands appears that this is correct.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I will run it with that checked as I can see it could make a big difference with 1 pair/2 pair.

[/ QUOTE ]
I wonder how many of these 2 pair hands had a pair on the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

43 of them had a pair on the board

[bicyclekick]

Your AA losses are killing you the most. You're missing out on 2k EV from those alone.

I can't tell your aggression rating, but it looks like you're just running badly. Bummer you had to start out htat way.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't tell your aggression rating, but it looks like you're just running badly.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pre-flop .69
Flop 2.39
Turn 1.47
River 1.12

Total 1.18

I know this is a little low, but I would like to think it is a reflection of the cards I got. The 20 starting hands of AA,KK & JJ that I did not receive (if I had gotten my fair share) would have made some improvement alone in the aggression factor.

[Michael Davis]

I don't know, I think you would have to be running really, really dry to have an aggression level this low. This is a problem.

But looking through your numbers, I agree that it just looks like you are running real bad. Your loss over 7K hands isn't really all that unlikely, although the chance you are a long term winning $$ player has gone down from a purely statistical point of view from when you started.

-Michael

[Blarg]

From my stats, it appears I have a terrible problem with aggression. I have no idea what everyone else is raising with all the time, or how I can get my aggression anywhere remotely near what others take for granted except by perhaps consistently raising with middle pairs no matter what cards are on board, and chasing people out with my draws instead of keeping them in, etc.

But...be that as it may, my woes aside...even I have more preflop aggression than you do. Mine's 0.75, significantly higher than yours, percentage wise.

Are you doing a lot of limping preflop?

Or surrendering your blinds too much? From what I hear, there's a lot of money to be made in stealing blinds in that game. Which means there's also a lot of money to be lost by not handling blinds well. Are you too intimidated by the amount of money involved, since you're new to that level, to defend your blinds enough? How about stealing blinds? Are you doing enough raising to take advantage of your position to steal blinds when you get the chance?

I'm giving you advice I could take more of myself here. Including -- could you benefit by playing more short-handed games, to get your preflop aggression and blind play improved?

P.S. -- your flop aggression is the only stat you have that's extremely dramatically better than mine, and like I say, I seem to be perpetually stuck in a non-aggressive nightmare I don't know how to get out of without playing total garbage and betting the farm on it. Whatever's screwy in my head about all this appears to be almost as screwy in yours, and you're playing at five times and more the stakes that I do. If it's a major flaw in my game, I'm guessing it's a major flaw in yours, and perhaps it would be better to work it out at lower levels first? Sounds like a horrible thing to say maybe, but I don't mean it to be -- it just honestly occurs to me. I would never be playing 15/30 with my horrible aggression stats...and yours are unfortunately not too far from mine.

[Blarg]

Ir occurs to me -- I also actually have a lower VPIP than yours and a lower PFR, yet still my preflop aggression factor is higher than yours. I'm guessing this must mean you are doing a lot of limping.

[SA125]

Sorry you're taking a hit, but I've played against you and you're good. I'm sure you'll beat the 15 game soon enough.

You're winning at every position but the blinds. That's proves something. But the blinds. I never really understood what Sklansky meant when he said poker was just a battle for the antes. Playing thousands of hands and having Tracker shows you why.

I think your play out of the blinds will have a bigger effect on getting into the black than collecting more on your AA. I could be wrong though.

P.S. - how is the calculation done for figuring how much EV is lost on those pairs?

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

Are you doing a lot of limping preflop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm using Miller's SSH on starting hands as my guide.

[supersub]

I don't know if this is of any value to you but here is my 2 cents.

I have played quite a lot 3/6 with you and from what i can see your agg factor is a little low there also. Especially on the turn and river.

I can also see that you are playing a couple of more hands now (unless my stats are off). Going from 13-14 to 16+ is not an easy task. there is a lot of marginal hands there that you have very little experiance playing. Trying those at the higher level may not be EV+ at this moment.

Good luck, i am sure you will be doing better soon.

Edit: also, your blind stealing is way up now. i guess this is good but so many changes in your game can take some time to adjust to.
Ps. I hope i dont sound like a whining jerk. You are a very solid player in my PT.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
I can also see that you are playing a couple of more hands now (unless my stats are off). Going from 13-14 to 16+ is not an easy task. there is a lot of marginal hands there that you have very little experiance playing. Trying those at the higher level may not be EV+ at this moment.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you you say in the rest of your post, but disagree slightly here... I would argue that 13-14% is slightly to tight in th 3/6, but definitely too tight in the 15/30.

I would further argue that 13-14 is pretty similar to 16ish in the 15 as the difference in blind structure promotes looser play. you will be playing more marginal hands (at 16% though how many are marginal?), but you are correct in doing so.

[ResidentParanoid]

how do you use SSH and end up with 16% VPIP? unless your tables are hyper-aggressive, your VPIP would be much higher

[supersub]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I can also see that you are playing a couple of more hands now (unless my stats are off). Going from 13-14 to 16+ is not an easy task. there is a lot of marginal hands there that you have very little experiance playing. Trying those at the higher level may not be EV+ at this moment.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like what you you say in the rest of your post, but disagree slightly here... I would argue that 13-14% is slightly to tight in th 3/6, but definitely too tight in the 15/30.

I would further argue that 13-14 is pretty similar to 16ish in the 15 as the difference in blind structure promotes looser play. you will be playing more marginal hands (at 16% though how many are marginal?), but you are correct in doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]

ahhh, the blind structure /images/graemlins/blush.gif. sorry, forgot about that.
i agree, of course.

but he is still playing hands that he usually mucks. Even if they are +EV for someone that has always played them, could the "rookie-factor" turn them into loosers? Not stating a fact, just asking.

[IlliniRyRy]

Hey O'Doyle, you and I have talked a bit at the tables, I know we're kind of in the same boat. I gave the 15-30 a shot as well and lost a little over 200BB just like you before I moved back down to 8-tabling the 5/10, which I've been beating fairly consistently. I think the 15 game is more loose aggressive than 5/10, but the two levels are really similar otherwise. I think I can beat the 15 too right now, but it may be very marginally, and I'm just not willing to deal with the swings. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on your post: you're losing money with 1 pair because the turn gets raised so frequently that it becomes more difficult to toss your TPTK, whereas in 5/10, you can give people for having a better hand. I lose all of my money calling LAGs down on the turn and river because I just can't give as much credit to the 15 players, since there's so much more turn semi-bluffing in the 15 than 5-10. I know this has been covered at length, but just fyi. I also tend to lose a lot of money in the blinds too, probably because you get raised out of position so much more often. I find myself just spewing more chips by attempting to play more aggressively with AQ, AK, etc in those situations. I don't know what kind of bankroll you're working with, but I definitely wouldn't play the 15 with anything less than 20k. I hope we get to talk a little more about this since it looks like we're on the exact same timeline. Good luck out there, PM me if you get a chance.

[IlliniRyRy]

[ QUOTE ]
Going from 13-14 to 16+ is not an easy task. there is a lot of marginal hands there that you have very little experiance playing. Trying those at the higher level may not be EV+ at this moment

I would argue that 13-14% is slightly to tight in th 3/6, but definitely too tight in the 15/30.

I would further argue that 13-14 is pretty similar to 16ish in the 15 as the difference in blind structure promotes looser play. you will be playing more marginal hands (at 16% though how many are marginal?), but you are correct in doing so.

[/ QUOTE ]


Exact same for me, I played at 3-6 for a long long time and my VPIP was ridiculously low, like 12%. I've spent a lot of time trying to play more maringal hands and get it up to at least 16-17%, I agree that it's absolutely necessary for 5/10 and up.

[GuyOnTilt]

I'm using Miller's SSH on starting hands as my guide.

That's a problem.

GoT

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

Or surrendering your blinds too much? From what I hear, there's a lot of money to be made in stealing blinds in that game. Which means there's also a lot of money to be lost by not handling blinds well. Are you too intimidated by the amount of money involved, since you're new to that level, to defend your blinds enough? How about stealing blinds? Are you doing enough raising to take advantage of your position to steal blinds when you get the chance?


[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that this is the area that my game needs the biggest work. I lost significantly more money out of the blinds that I ever have historically. (on a BB basis)

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

I can also see that you are playing a couple of more hands now (unless my stats are off). Going from 13-14 to 16+ is not an easy task. there is a lot of marginal hands there that you have very little experiance playing. Trying those at the higher level may not be EV+ at this moment.


[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for all the kind words sub. My 3/6 stats for over 300k hands show me more like this: VP$IP 18ish, PFR 7.9ish. So I am actually playing fewer hands.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

P.S. - how is the calculation done for figuring how much EV is lost on those pairs?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just used the average EV stats provided by pokerroom. Naturally, longterm I would hope to think my EV would be much greater than average.

[Punker]

Regardless of good points made by others, the one stat that jumps out to me is "Attempted to steal blinds". That number looks a little high if you aren't confident in your post flop play, meaning you are probably dumping a lot of $60 shots on a preflop raise, called by the blinds, getting checkraised on the missed flop, and then folding the turn.

[dogmeat]

I don't have as many hands at $15/$30, but if I include $10/$20, and a little $5/$10 I get a similar number. I am at 16.94 VP$IP However, the blinds are amazingly different:

Yours: BB $13,755 losing $10,500 for -.30bb
Mine: BB $17,300 losing $5,600 for -.15bb

Yours: SB $8,350 losing $5500 for - .22bb
Mine: SB $10,300 losing $5200 for - .12bb

If you had the same numbers as me, you would save $6100 in the BB and $1200 in the small blind for $7300. I know this is a very small sample, and we are not playing the same games, but I think if you look at your loss in the big and small blinds for your $5/$10 play you may see a much smaller percentage.

Better luck.

Dogmeat /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[stoxtrader]

26% is not high at all for that stat.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm using Miller's SSH on starting hands as my guide.

That's a problem.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

why? I'm not agreeing or disagreeing, but you can put a bit more effort into it.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm using Miller's SSH on starting hands as my guide.


That's a problem.
GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

Could you elaborate?

[GuyOnTilt]

Could you elaborate?

Simply put, the Party 15 is too aggressive to play as loosely PF as Ed Miller's book recommends.

GoT

[ResidentParanoid]

His VPIP is around 16%. He can't be playing SSH guidelines.

[Phil Van Sexton]

[ QUOTE ]
I have no idea what everyone else is raising with all the time

[/ QUOTE ]

Speaking for myself, I almost always raise with big hands, and sometimes raise with "calling hands" if I'm in position.

If you looked at hand chart, it might say "call with 77 in late position", so an ABC player would call 100% of the time. Aggressive players would often raise in this spot if it made sense, or just to mix it up. I think this accounts for the disparity you see.

[fnord_too]

Havent read the other replies, but it really looks that you are just running bad.

7000 hands is not very many. I don't see the other big pairs, but you are having abnormally bad luck with your aces (again, when your sample size gets bigger, this should straighten out).

I have just recently started playing the 15/30 game, too. I have ~25k hands I think, and I have noticed a tremendous amount of volatility. A lot of this is due to me figuring out how to the game, but a lot is also due to the fact that 15/30 is a pretty aggressive game, which increases variability. I have not had more than about 100BB down swing yet, but I have had 2-3 of those already. I was fortunate enough to have some 100BB upswings in between them, though.

I would give the game more time if your bankroll can handle it. Your VPIP looks a little low to me, but that could be because you have been cold decked.

Again, I have found this game to be very swingy, which can be difficult to deal with. Hopefully you will start experiencing some of the happy swings soon.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
Could you elaborate?

Simply put, the Party 15 is too aggressive to play as loosely PF as Ed Miller's book recommends.

GoT

[/ QUOTE ]

This confuses me. I agree the 15 game is much more aggressive than the 3/6, which leads to a lower V$IP. Are you suggesting that a player's VP$IP should be even lower?

[amulet]

clearly over the first 7000 hands you did not "get lucky", and this is so small a smple that results like this can be expected. however, the fluctuations differ from game to game. therefore, are you and your coach choosing wild games? if you are, you might want to try other games and see if the results improve. game selection is very important, and vary depending on your goals and risk tolerance.

[ChicagoTroy]

You can't nail it down to just VP$IP. We just saw peter_rus's stats with 50K hands with a VP$IP over 24. It's just not that simple. You could be playing great and just running bad.

What does your coach say about your play? I'm assuming he's reviewing chunks of hands.

[stoxtrader]

amulet - check your PMs.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

What does your coach say about your play? I'm assuming he's reviewing chunks of hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

Overall, he feels that I should be a winner in the 15 game, given my current play, even though it is not optimal. He is of the opinion I would be winning in the 1-1.5BB/100 range, if I get in a larger sample of hands and even with no improvement in my play. He does feel that my play borders on weak tight.

[BusterStacks]

SSH plays extremely loose. I don't think you can show a profit playing so loose with that much aggression.

[OnlinePokerCoach]

I am sorry to hear about your losses. That is a lot of money to lose, especially if you were used to playing lower limits.

How will you be proceeding from here?

Best regards,
OnlinePokerCoach

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
are you and your coach choosing wild games? if you are, you might want to try other games and see if the results improve. game selection is very important, and vary depending on your goals and risk tolerance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I had planned on trying to play a risk averse game and attempt not to push too many marginal situations. On the flip side of that, I was playing in the looser rooms and many times this was against LAGS. The following screen shot points out that many of the top winners in my database were on the loose/passive or loose aggressive side:

(12 out of the 19 top winner's V$IP was higher than the average and 14 out of the top 19 winners were more agressive than average. Only 2 of the 19 top winners could be defined as tight aggressive.)

http://img126.exs.cx/img126/548/sum.jpg

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]

How will you be proceeding from here?


[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Coach,

The plan at the moment is to take a short hiatus from playing the 15/30 game, (maybe up to 2 weeks) and further analyze my play.

My coach has not thrown in the towel (which speaks well for him since I got a big hole to get out of before I turn profitable) and is working with me to help further tweak my play. And naturally the point of posting this it gain from the vast pool of knowledge of this fourm.

[slavic]

(12 out of the 19 top winner's V$IP was higher than the average and 14 out of the top 19 winners were more agressive than average. Only 2 of the 19 top winners could be defined as tight aggressive.)

O'Doyle-

This is not suprising at all given your small sample size. These players standard deviation is much higher than a Tight aggressive player. Add in that there are more players that fit this catagory, over a short period of time what we consider bad play will post some sizable wins.

If you want a book reference see TPFAP p137 "Why the First Day Leader at the WSOP Never Wins". Sklansky is talking about tourney play but the same concept applies.

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
O'Doyle-

This is not suprising at all given your small sample size. These players standard deviation is much higher than a Tight aggressive player. Add in that there are more players that fit this catagory, over a short period of time what we consider bad play will post some sizable wins.

If you want a book reference see TPFAP p137 "Why the First Day Leader at the WSOP Never Wins". Sklansky is talking about tourney play but the same concept applies.

[/ QUOTE ]

slavic beat me to it. In any short period, the highest variance play will generally produce the highest winners, AND the highest losers. I would be interested to see that same sort you did by highest losers.

[O Doyle Rules]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
O'Doyle-

This is not suprising at all given your small sample size. These players standard deviation is much higher than a Tight aggressive player. Add in that there are more players that fit this catagory, over a short period of time what we consider bad play will post some sizable wins.

If you want a book reference see TPFAP p137 "Why the First Day Leader at the WSOP Never Wins". Sklansky is talking about tourney play but the same concept applies.

[/ QUOTE ]

slavic beat me to it. In any short period, the highest variance play will generally produce the highest winners, AND the highest losers. I would be interested to see that same sort you did by highest losers.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Stox,

You and slavic are quite correct. This screen shot bears out exactly what you are saying. (Except fot that poor slob on the bottom aka the biggest loser that is trying to play a tight aggressive game and the rock with a VP$IP at 11.02, all the rest are playing a high variance style. This is definitely not a list I am happy being on, especially being on the bottom by such a large margin.)

http://img79.exs.cx/img79/4517/losers1.jpg

Holy crap! I gotta being running bad!

[illguitar]

In all honesty I haven't read all of the posts so I don't know if the suggestions that I give will be new or not. Aside from that, I mean this only to help you as I could care less what the critics will say about reading all of the posts before entering my opinion. If I repeat, just treat it as second sentiments towards the ideas of other posters.

That said, looking at your stats and reading your statements, I have a very strong inkling that you have been running bad. In all honesty 7k hands is not enough to get a read on how you are playing. If...you are truly devestated by these losses, I mean monetarily more than emotionally (although the emotions of it apply as well), I would suggest moving down in limits. Even if you are on a bad run of cards, it may help you to face lesser competition. However, if you are not truly devestated monetarily by this it may be a blow to your confidence to regress in competition. I would suggest doing exactly what you say, take some time off and reassess your game.

While you are examining your play, look at two things very thoroughly- Why are you losing SO much money in the blinds? Are you playing too many hands? Too few? Taking them too far?
Are you playing as aggressively as you should be? From your stats I see a slightly weak-tight tendency at play. This may not be true, but when I look at your stats I see you calling a lot of raises instead of betting yourself. Taking hands too far and folding too much in big pots are the two biggest ways to lose money in Texas Hold em. While this is a bit of a Catch 22, my suggestion would be make sure you have a legitimate hand when calling raises, and frequently raising and reraising yourself. Only however with the cream of the crop hands. Remember that just because Pocket Aces are the best hand before the flop, it doesn't mean that they are the best hand on the flop and beyond. Your losses with these high pocket pairs, as well as your wins with Big Suited Connecters, seems to suggest to me that you are chasing hands. Be aggressive with your big pp's, but be ready to back off and let them go if there is trouble. This of course could also be attributed to a bad run of cards as discussed earlier. As far as not folding in big pots, once you get there, to the showdown...call, at least. There is no more painful feeling in the world then laying down the winner prematurely on the river. There is also nothing so costly.

As I have been writing this I have been playing in a few games, so hopefully the flow is okay and what I said has actually made sense. Feel free to criticize and inform me of inaccuracies. I just wanted to throw some ideas out there for you. Some of the advice almost certainly seems to contradict other advice, but so goes poker! There is no absolute correct decision, only situations, experiences, and feelings. You have to take all of the advice you get with a grain of salt and remember that it can be a winning play in some situations, and a big loser in others. Go wiht your gut and your experiences!!!

Two last thoughts before I say good luck...Have you considered no limit? Playing in higher limit NL can be difficult and require different skills, but sometimes players, like myself are MUCH more successful in NL ring games. Also...how many games do you play??? If you are multi-tabling, this is the first thing that I would get rid of. At least reduce. That's it. Hopefully it has been helpful at least somewhat, I myself am relatively new to the game. I hope that you can turn this around and that you find the answers you need to become successful.

GOOD LUCK!!!

Daver

PS- You said you went in confident. Confidence is key, however overconfidence can be deadly to your bankroll. I'm sure that these experiences have put your confidence in the gutter. Remember to be confident! Remember to play confidently, but also remain humble. Humility can be a saving grace.

[TimM]

[ QUOTE ]
Holy crap! I gotta being running bad!

[/ QUOTE ]

Sort by BB/100, then you won't feel as bad.

[illguitar]

Be sure to post updates on your progress!!! I will be interested. Thanks. Good luck

[randomchamp]

I agree about the game selection comment. When I first started playing online I would just look at the stats and jump in the "best game". Now that I "know" all the regulars I avoid them like the Bubonic Plague. I spend more time watching than playing, but when I play my profits are much better than they used to be when I was a multi-table - play tons of hours whore......

[stoxtrader]

[ QUOTE ]
I spend more time watching than playing

[/ QUOTE ]

This can't be +EV