Defend BB for steal HU with any two.

[Peter_rus]

15/30 game. 50K.

Just look through my stats and find that i fold my BB HU around 31% HU for steal. Then i look through results and find that im loosing only around 0.16BB with my worst defend qualifying hands (and 0.12 at all for all hands). But this number is very far from minus 0.5BB as if i just folded my BB for steal.

So i guess i need to defend more and add more hands to get this number in BB to at least to loose around 0.45-0.48 as it's still less than -0.5BB by folding. But the difference between -0.16BB and -0.5BB is very far so i come to conclusion i must defend with any 2.



Another interesting spot that i used to limp my SB when it's folded to me around 50% of time and 50% of time i raise it against BB. When i limped i call a raise from BB 100% of cases, but anyway my SB still loose when i limp/call it first only 0.18BB instead of 0.33BB if i just folded it.

Maybe it's just because my usual average opponents are not good enough postflop HU. But it's still interesting. What do you think, guys?

[Girchuck]

I think, you should do an experiment.
Go to a cheap heads up table, and play a few thousand hands, defending 95% of the time. Play your best, ofcourse.
Maybe it will give you some missing info fast.

[Peter_rus]

Nope, HU game in HU-table is different to HU play in a full or SH -play.

As when situations of "folded to SB" and "folded to button who steals" are not so very routine. When it's HU-table it gets MUCH quicker time to understand patterns of any player when in other games people simply don't spot a lot of information and like to focuse on 3 or more way pots.

[mmcd]

With the blinds reversed on like they are on Party, I think you you should be very liberal in calling in the BB, unless your opponent seems to be folding and/or limping a lot more than he is raising.


I think a more interesting question is how tight you play in the sb (out of position) in a 2/3 structure.

In a related question, after all this time, why do they still not have the blinds right in heads up matches? It can't be that hard to fix, and I don't understand why they'd decide to position the blinds backwards in the first place.

[fyodor]

With 50K hands you don't have enough info. I have 63K at 5/10 SH but that only gives me 12K of BB. And that only gives me 36 hands of J8s of which I am losing .74/hand and 41 hands of 98s of which I am losing .65/hand.

I don't expect to make money with either of these but they should lose less than if I just fold them.

With 50K of 10 handed you probably have less than 30 examples of hands like these in the BB. I don't think you can make any decisions based on figures like that.

[naphand]

I am not sure about any two as a standard, but certainly there appears room to add quite a few more hands to your blind defence. Again, not "any two", but hands that are less likely to cost a lot when played post-flop. How many of these defence hands reach SD? Is there a tendency for more hands to be won on the Flop/Turn? That would suggest that your post-flop play is winning those hands, and not so much the card value. You are in a situation where your opponent is going to miss the flop 65% of the time, and only pair up 50% of the time by the River (although we need to add some high-card hands to this), so technically you have much more room to win hands with nothing yourself.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
With 50K of 10 handed you probably have less than 30 examples of hands like these in the BB. I don't think you can make any decisions based on figures like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't distinct 89s and K2o. I analyze them in a group. I just moved out good hands like Aces, any T+, any pair and find these numbers. Of course even in a group they not enough, but saying that im between -0.15 and -0.35 is also force me to add more hands. The only problem is that *maybe they are so good cause im at all fold the rest hands* and if add more hands i would face increased agression from attacker which will turn all my hands to loose more than now. And this is the question i want answer for myself.

[fyodor]

[ QUOTE ]

So i guess i need to defend more and add more hands to get this number in BB to at least to loose around 0.45-0.48 as it's still less than -0.5BB by folding. But the difference between -0.16BB and -0.5BB is very far so i come to conclusion i must defend with any 2.


[/ QUOTE ]

um... why do you want to lose more than you already are? Shouldn't you be attempting to lose less?

[naphand]

That is what he is saying. Peter is talking about specific hands not his EV overall from the BB. Any hand that is losing less than -0.50 BB is actually winning. If Peter can show a net loss of -0.46 BB playing 92o, then he just increased his overall profitability from the big blind. Folding 92o would cost -0.50 BB.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't you be attempting to lose less?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes.
If i fold BB i loose -0.5BB. If i can turn this number to -0.48 by calling a raise and outplay on postflop then this calling is +ev move and i better do it.

[naphand]

Do I hear an echo.... /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[fyodor]

[ QUOTE ]
i come to conclusion i must defend with any 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guarantee you that if you even come close to aproaching the defend with any 2 strategy, your overall loss in the BB will escalate from -.12 to .5 and beyond pretty freaking quickly.

You may have a few more hands you could defend with but I am sure there aren't too many.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I guarantee you that if you even come close to aproaching the defend with any 2 strategy, your overall loss in the BB will escalate from -.12 to .5 and beyond pretty freaking quickly.

[/ QUOTE ]

I will not argue this cause i really don't know. I just want to find optimal borderline and planning to add some hands and see what will happens.

[fyodor]

I know what you and Nap are saying about moving a .5 loser to a .48 loser. This should move the .12 overall loss to .119 or something.

I just can't believe there are that many hands that you aren't defending with that this will work with.

If you say your biggest losers you are presently defending with are losing .16 then there are obviously a few more available. I believe the next few you find though will quickly escalate from the .16 towards .5

If you defend with 92o or even 96o I find it hard to believe you will lose less than if you just folded them.

Yes there is a border somewhere. Probably lies between defending with 35% and defending with 85%. I haven't the data or skill to narrow it down anymore than that.

I just know 100% can't be right.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
I believe the next few you find though will quickly escalate from the .16 towards .5

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes there is a border somewhere. Probably lies between defending with 35% and defending with 85%. I haven't the data or skill to narrow it down anymore than that.

[/ QUOTE ]


Maybe you can show your numbers to compare? And everyone else stats are welcomed. Just filter for Steal HU and called/raised and exclude your 3-bet hands.

So with seeing others stats we will be able to move closer for finding this borderline?

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
i come to conclusion i must defend with any 2.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you defend with any2, u are more often then not having the worst hand. If you have worst hand, its important to be able to steal, and they will not let someone playing any2 steal a lot, unless they are really bad.

My guess is that you will have a harder time winning al those times that you dont hit flop (also out of the blinds). That is, if getting away with bluffs is important for your style of play I would not recomend starting to defend with any 2.

But this is full table I guess and if this HU isnt happening 2 often and u play tight rest of the way, it sure looks like u can play any2.

[fyodor]

Truly I am a moron. I missed the whole HU part of this thread.

Anyhow I fold my BB to a Steal HU 53% of the time and I lose .32 per hand. Obviously I suck.

So I am a moron who sucks. Thanks for helping start my day on such a positive note Peter.

Looking at just these HU defenses I have even less info to make any decisions. For instance I defended with 74s precisely once. Made my flush and lost 6BB to a rivered boat.

Thanks for bringing that up again. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

edit: I lose .32 when I defend. Overall I lose .38 so I guess I have room to defend more.

[fyodor]

[ QUOTE ]
I lose .32 when I defend. Overall I lose .38 so I guess I have room to defend more.

[/ QUOTE ]

Or not. Seeing as I lost more than .5 on several defenses I would lose less if I defended less.

But the sample size is too small in any case - 2108 steal attempts against my BB HU.

[Peter_rus]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking at just these HU defenses I have even less info to make any decisions. For instance I defended with 74s precisely once. Made my flush and lost 6BB to a rivered boat.


[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need to take into account your suckouts on exact hands, cause many of them have nearly the same strength. 74s looks like nearly equal to 76o and 84s or 86o, 96o, T6o, J5o etc. These are all trash hands that can proceed only when flopping pair or draw. More high cards abilities of higher ones replaced by more straight/flush potential of the lowest. So you can combine them all as a group and look at their play like "defending with middle-trash". /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks for helping start my day on such a positive note Peter.


[/ QUOTE ]

I really didn't meant to make you angered or disappointed, was just curious of what people think.

[Fnord]

Any 2 might still be too far....

Consider:
72
23
83
T2
...

However, you're building a good case for 75-85% defense...

[Benjamin]

Very interesting topic, Peter.

I don't have much of a database at 15/30 yet, but being new to the game I'm very interested in blind defense at this structure. With so much money already in blind, I clearly need to defend more than I did, but I'm struggling to find a good line in the sand.

Looking forward to hearing more discussion of your experiment in adding hands. I'll try to contribute as I get more data and feel for these games.

B.