Mental conditioning

[Boris]

One thing I've noticed about poker is that bad results, whether the result of bad luck or poor play, have a very strong influence on how we play the immediately proceeding hands.

So here's the story. Pokerstars $10 rebuy tourney. Pays 81 places. we are down to 83. The blinds are 2000-4000. I have 25,000 in chips. everyone folds to me two off the button. all the remaining players have me covered but not by much more than 2x max. I pick up K-Jo and shove.

Good play or jackass play?

[zaxx19]

UM ya thats a bad one...

[M.B.E.]

How much in antes was in the pot?

Also what percentage of the prize pool would you receive if you finished 81st?

[TheTimeIsUp]

Considering that you are so close to the money, I would wait till you are actually in the money before you make a stand with just a mediocre hand.

[phixxx]

You could probably fold into the money, why risk it when you're a 60 40 dog to a lone ace? I can see this play if you really don't care about the bubble and you're trying
to accumulate the kind of chips you need to place higher up in the money, but this really isn't the place or time.

[zaxx19]

Honestly im suprised that MBE considers this a play to be considered. True your getting low but K-J is not a hand i make a stand with very often just way way too easily dominated by potential callers(A-J, A-K)(j-j & Q-Q HAVE YU DEAD TO 3 OUTS)and your only a flip to 8-8, 9-9, 10-10. I dont like it one bit. As for the 10X the BB rule, I dont like it one bit either in reality late in tourneys most players are playing at 7-15 X blinds anyway so the idea that once you dip below 10BB it is total desperation time and you should find 2 paint card or any pp and just shove in doesnt hold water with me much.(I know he is lower than 10X BB here just speaking generally)

[Boris]

81st gives me ~.2% of the total prize pool.

[fnurt]

This is an easy push. You have only 6xBB and can hardly wait around for a premium hand.

As for the 10 bucks you could get by folding your way into 81st place, oh well. Your goal should be a lot higher than that.

The fact that you are an underdog to A5 is similarly irrelevant. I don't often see a lot of people calling off half their stack or more with A5.

You simply have to be aggressive when the blinds are big. If it gets folded to you in late position, the default should be to raise. The cards you hold are a very small part of the picture.

Of course someone might wake up with a big hand and bust you out. That's why they call it gambling. Anyone who wants to fold and wait for a better situation is gambling that they'll pick up a big hand very soon. The question is simply which gamble gives you better odds, which takes me back to raising being a no-brainer.

[Goodie54]

Looks pretty standard to me. You have to be pushing with many hands in this situation or the blinds will eat you up. I'd push with just about any "playable" hand right on down to 78 or 89 suited.

Peace

Goodie

[Goodie54]

I wrote my reply before reading others. The weak-tight mentality of these posts are incredible. Fnurt is the only one that got it right. If Boris listens to this forum he'll never WIN a tourney. He'll make the money, but the big money will always be out of reach.

Peace

Goodie

[pokerstudAA]

I think you must push your KJ here. Sliding into a $10 payout is not what I play 6 hours tournaments for. Your stack needs emergency attention in this situation at 25000 Blinds 2000/4000. You can pick up 6000 in blinds here or bust out. But you need some additional chips to climb to the top of the money ladder.

That being said: KJ is a hand that I dont like to push with but often must. The problem is that the hands that will call you usually have you beat. Any PP is on the nice end of the coinflip and any other big broadway hand likely has you dominated. Any hand with an A is a favorite and many people will call from the blinds with any ace against an all-in that looks like a desperation play from a short stack.

[swimfan]

Good play. I would be pushing pretty much anything given blinds' stacks, your position, your stack size, that it has been folded to you, and bubble stage. One round later, if you don't find a premium hand, you will be down to ~17K in same spot (given you lose blinds). Yuck, especially if blinds go up in said time.

[Whitey]

I'd be pushing with a lot worse than than K-Jo in this spot.

One thing that might stop me would be the size of the stacks in the blinds,if you think there on auto call then I might..... no scratch that I'd still push. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ZootMurph]

This is said all the time and is simply true. When you are shortstacked, you HAVE to pick a hand to make a stand with. Since you can't be too picky, KJo is actually a good hand in comparison. I think that's the only realistic play you have in that situation.

[sdplayerb]

agreed..especially in that it is easy (i was going to use the same wording).
That so many think this is a bad play shows that many play a low stack poorly.

also, with it being on the bubble they are going to be even less likely to call..the gap is huge.
Some really could throw away AJ (and would be correct to do so). 99 as well.

If the table is playing tight I may do it with any K.
Making the money is worth little, this is a great time to raise very often to pickup a ton of chips.

If you run into AQ (which seems to happen to me every time) or better, so be it. It is pretty unlikely.

[ethan]

Antes are...200? So around 8K in the pot? This seems both good and pretty standard. KJo isn't the bottom of my pushing range here...that'd probably be something like 89s. People are going to need a very good hand to call half their stack here. Furthermore, because it's so close to the bubble, I'd think many opponents are going to assume you need a huge hand to push.

[Glintir]

Pfew.. I'm glad you said that. I admit to being a novice but my first thought was that if you're playing to win you push here. If you're playing to money you fold.

Then all these posts saying fold, and I questioned my judgement.

Way I figured it, if I fold what are the odds I'll get a better hand before the blinds? And besides I've got 2 blind trips before I'm so low I'm getting called no matter what I've got. So, while this hand isn't great, it's better than alot of crap you're going to get in the next 20 hands.

[Roman]

very very standard. Anyone who folds this is welcome to my table any day.

[SossMan]

I haven't read the replies yet, but judging by the # of them, I wouldn't be shocked if there wasn't some disagreement about what to do here.

A push here is mandatory, and I can't wait to see how all the weak tight players in here justify folding....I'm guessing it's a bunch of "YOURE A DOG TO ANY PAIR AND ANY ACE!!"

when will people start realize that it doesn't matter if the guy has a better hand than you if he cannot call with a majority of the hands that beat yours.

now let me read the replies...

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
You could probably fold into the money,

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, so what...this isn't a super sat, right?

[ QUOTE ]
why risk it when you're a 60 40 dog to a lone ace?

[/ QUOTE ]

How many lone aces are calling here? He does have to call you, right? He does have to have his 60% hold up, right?

[ QUOTE ]
I can see this play if you really don't care about the bubble and you're trying
to accumulate the kind of chips you need to place higher up in the money, but this really isn't the place or time.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is exactly the right time...getting aggressive on the bubble might be one of the least understood concepts by the masses. It is one of the most profitable moves available to experienced players. Having what is likely the best hand is just a bonus.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
As for the 10X the BB rule, I dont like it one bit either in reality late in tourneys most players are playing at 7-15 X blinds anyway so the idea that once you dip below 10BB it is total desperation time and you should find 2 paint card or any pp and just shove in doesnt hold water with me much.(I know he is lower than 10X BB here just speaking generally)


[/ QUOTE ]

No, you just misunderstand the 10x rule. It doesn't really talk about loosening your opening standards (if anything, they might be tightened with this size stack, bubble notwithstanding). The 10x rule simply says that if you do open, it should be a push, since a standard raise will PC you anyway and the blinds/antes represent a good portion of your stack.

[ QUOTE ]
True your getting low but K-J is not a hand i make a stand with very often just way way too easily dominated by potential callers(A-J, A-K)(j-j & Q-Q HAVE YU DEAD TO 3 OUTS)and your only a flip to 8-8, 9-9, 10-10.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do the math....it shouldn't be that hard.

[sdplayerb]

lol, your read on the other people's replies was as correct as your post.
I love this portion of a tourney, that I call maniac time.
Really the only skill is knowing to pushin a ton, but most people don't realize it.
Two of my biggest finishes, both over $1K, was since I was willing to risk going broke, pushing in constantly, knowing they wouldn't call without a monster.
Having people saying crap, i know you have nothing, but i can't call is a very fun feeling.

[Boris]

Obviously I lost the hand or I wouldn't have posted it in the first place. The BB had AK. I am the bubble boy.

I thought my move was S.O.P. But I've been running terrible on pokerstars lately so I'm re-examining some things that in the past I never questioned.

[zaxx19]

sossman, do yu think that in this orgy of moving in with crap by alot of LAG players players like you(if yur calling me tight weak...) players like me dont notice KJ being shown?? It is hillarious what you assume people will fold here when according to you alot of players should and would move in with KJ...It just seems like 1 way logic. Of course im not calling with a baby pair but from a-9 and up im calling and any pair down too 6-6 im also almost automatically calling.

[phixxx]

[ QUOTE ]
I wrote my reply before reading others. The weak-tight mentality of these posts are incredible. Fnurt is the only one that got it right. If Boris listens to this forum he'll never WIN a tourney. He'll make the money, but the big money will always be out of reach.

Peace

Goodie


[/ QUOTE ]

Uhh, I'm not sure about you, but when I play a 6 hour long tournament, I at least want my buyin back.

[Deelah]

I agree with SossMan, this is an easy all-in for me too. Why wait any longer? To maybe sneak into 81st? Not a chance I´ll fold this one. Try to take the pot down preflop or take that 40/60-shot you´re talking about. This is a good chance to get it started if you aim for 1st.

[Deelah]

I call that a waste of time, playing 6 hours to get my money back? I would cry floods. Have you ever won a multi? It´s a quite better feeling than sneaking into the money.

But to win you have to leave fear at home.

[Deelah]

I have won two $16.000 wins this year and are having a total of about $80.000 (about 7 multitable tour. wins). These money hasn´t been won by making weak plays at bubble time, that´s all I have to say.

I think this forum has become worse this year. Players insist on and give advice to others to play weak.
I like some posters like Fnurt, SossMan, you sdplayerb and Fossilman of course and some others.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
Uhh, I'm not sure about you, but when I play a 6 hour long tournament, I at least want my buyin back.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to get past this kind of thinking. When you total up your wins and losses at the end of the year, 10 bucks is just 10 bucks. It makes no difference whether you "got your buyin back" in a particular tournament, except as a momentary psychological reward when it happens.

If the buyin was $100 but, for some reason, 81st place paid $10, would you still feel like you at least wanted to win that $10? Or would it make no difference to you, because you wouldn't be getting your whole buyin back?

Point being, it's the same 10 bucks either way!

[Goodie54]

This is completly ridiculous thinking. You would CALL for half your stack with 66 which is at BEST a coin flip, but you wouldn't RAISE with K J that also (if called) has a good chance to be a coin flip or slightly worse?

You would also call with A 9 off for half your stack when there are very few hands your a big favorite over and about a million hands that your dominated by. Unreal. The aggresive players move in with the good hands too.

Your making no sense. This type of thinking is not what wins tournaments.

And by the way, 9 2 off is crap. K J off is not.

Amend your thinking.

Peace

Goodie

[Rduke55]

Agreed. If you're doing this just to cash, you might as well not have played at all or played a SNG.

[SossMan]

I think there is much more of this thinking:

Uhh, I'm not sure about you, but when I play a 6 hour long tournament, I at least want my buyin back

than your thinking:

but from a-9 and up im calling and any pair down too 6-6 im also almost automatically calling.

it's just a #s game zaxx. People don't like bubbling. Period. They are going to fold too much, so I'm going to be raising...again, having what is likely the best hand is just a bonus here since I will likely not get called a great majority of the time.

[sdplayerb]

thanks..very nice of you to include me in that group.
I just wish I had your results.

i think the problem many have, and i did early on, is thinking: I've played great for three hours, I don't want to go out with K high.
And since everybody is thinking that, it is time to push push push.

Probably most of what I say is from reading Fossilman's posts in the first place.

[sdplayerb]

you got unlucky and somebody else had a hand.
don't be results oriented.
you still had enough chips to put pressure on others and if you get blinded much more they will call you with a lot more hands.

[Scooterdoo]

Nothing wrong with it at all. You have to make plays like this to win tournaments, you can't just wait for good hands. Most lone aces will not call you, so most likely a caller needs a pair or an AT or higher. Would like it better if you were on the button, cut-off or SB, but again not bad. The move works best because you are on the bubble so most players are less likely to want to take chances. This assumes 'just' getting into the money is not that important to you, because if it is the prime importance than certainly wait until you get there before taking chances. But if you do want to try and win or get as high as possible this is the type of move you need to make to win a tournament -- you can't just wait for good hands, they don't always come!

[zaxx19]

Firstly, I want too say that I never said this is an automatic fold or push; my point was merely directed towards the poster who said that at 20bb or below he would seriously think about pushing here(at 12BB or more this is a horrible push imho). I also agree that playing just for the minimum cash spots is a ridiculous and couterproductive strategy in the long-term. But what I think alot of people are missing is that you dont need to constantly be building a huge stack late in a tourney to win.
I really believe if you enter the final table @ about avg and learn to pick your spots while people bust out you can make a serious run at winning tourneys. It is funny that there are many in here who often deride Dan Harrington's strategies and TJ Cloutier's but now take Greg Raymer's as gospel. I could roll out about 50 reasons why I respect Harrington and Cloutier more; and am more apt too follow their advice( yes even for online tourneys) than Raymer's, but i dont wish to trash Raymer, so I wont. Suffice too say Raymer was an aggressive player who built a tremendous stack through winning races and picking up very good hands...those types of players WILL win many tourneys. But those types of players also seem to have a tough time when knocked off the large stack in playing rational intelligent poker(i.e. the TOC)they just cant get away from a bullying style to a more pragmatic one. There are many ways to win a NLH tournament- I concede that being aggressive and winning 70% of your coinflips especially at key times+ sucking out twice with the worst hand at a final table is definitely one. My point is id prefer too be in control a little bit more of my results than relying on tremendous luck(again any winner will need it at points) again and again and again in a tourney. I will buy Raymer's book when it comes out, but not add his style too my arsenal, i'll buy it to understand how players like that think and too help me make more opportune marginal calls in tourneys. I can already hear people in here yelping :"he called and busted me with 88 which was a horrible call by him but anyway i had to move in I was on the button with K10 suited...".

The funny thing is I probably push here as well after further review with only like 6x the BB...My point is more directed towards those who would consider a move with 10-12 BB or above here solid.

[fnurt]

I agree that pushing with 12x the BB would be a bad move, mainly because the risk vs. reward would be awful. Raising 2.5x the BB and folding to a push would be my standard play, but it would depend on the players involved, and how likely I thought they were to play back.

Thinking back to my top-3 finishes in these big MTTs, there has never been a time when I built a huge stack in the first hour and just cruised from there. Sometimes I have made the bubble with an average stack and then went on a rush at that point. Sometimes I have gotten to the final 18 with one of the smallest stacks and then had a couple lucky double-ups. I remember one Party Super where I made the money with the second-smallest stack and went on to finish 3rd.

My point is that there is no single road to victory. You can't simply follow a predetermined game plan for a 6-hour tournament, because you don't know what will happen. You have to take the opportunities when they come, whether it's on the first hand or on the 300th hand. If a favorable situation comes up, you can't pass just because "I didn't plan on gambling so early." There are no guarantees of a better opportunity later.

Again, I feel the need to qualify this by saying you do not need to push all your chips in the first time you get a 51% edge, because if I don't give that disclaimer someone always brings up a ridiculous hypothetical.

[Goodie54]

Two final table hands I saw TJ Cloutier play while I was at the table in Aruba -

Limped in with K J off utg then subsequently called for all his chips when BB moved in with A Q.

Called for 3/4 of his chips when he raised and tighty came over the top all in. His hand - A 3 off.

Your tone when talking about Fossilman is simply incorrect. Let me ask you this - have you ever played with or watched Greg play other than the WSOP of this year?

If your answer is no then your oponions of him are completly invalid and pointless.

Peace

Goodie

[Scooterdoo]

I wasn't specifically responding to you, I was just commenting on the post so sorry if it appeared that way. I wasn't trying to say it's an automatic move, just that I thought it was a good move and one I would often do. The thing most people are missing (at least the ones who are disagreeing with it) is that this is actually a pretty 'safe' move and a good way to build your stack. Much safer than calling a big bet with a strong hand or making a play at the pot with one or more players who called a bet to see the flop. Why? Because in this circumstance most players will not call you without a premium hand so you are very likely to take the pot right there and even if you do get called, many of the hands that will call you are only a coinflip to your hand so for the minority of hands that you do get called with you are not far behind. Sure someone can have AK-AJ or JJ-AA, but these are the only hands that would call you and you are far behind. All others you are in okay shape, but of course most of the time you don't get called.

[zaxx19]

HMM, i must have missed where this poster said he was on the final table, ooops he wasnt. I also saw where he mentioned his chip stack relative too other players and other relevant information...must have missed that in your post regarding Cloutier in Aruba..
As for Raymer I explicitly said that I didnt want to bash him so I am really puzzled by the tone of your reply. Raymer is a good tourney player. Raymer is better than me. Raymer won the WSOP main-event. All these things are true but dont necessarily make Raymer a top world-class player. Results since the WSOP have shown both David Williams and Arieh(a FAR superior player to Raymer imho) to be excellent players also. Guess what i still prefer advice from CLoutier and Harrington too any of these 3 players. Harrington's results in the WSOP are spectacular and given the field size over the last 2 yrs absolutely amazing. Cloutier just has won like a zillion tourneys and has what like 6 bracelets?? Once, I even saw Raymer play was a 2 million dollar freeroll and I witnessed what i expected to; Raymer bullying till he got caught making huge raises with suited connectors...Raymer calling a huge reraise bc pot odds "forced him too" and Raymer playing horribly after he lost his dominating chip stack and bully postion at the table. Didnt/doesnt seem like Raymer has any other speed but full speed ahead. And a player that fails too adapt(change speeds) and play pragmatically just isnt a world class player IMHO.

Just like the t-shirts say WSOP-2004- ANYONE CAN WIN!! and anyone did win. /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[Goodie54]

Again, if your basing this oponion only on TV, your oponion is completly insane and foolishly invalid. Having actually PLAYED with Greg many times in tournaments and live play, I can tell you his no limit game is exceptional and one that anyone would do well to model.

The hands in Aruba were not to compare to the hand posted here, I was mearly demonstrating that TJ's advice and play may not be what you think it is. Limping with KJ and calling an all in for all of YOUR chips when you had a decent stack to begin with is bonehead, TJ or not. I've seen some other questionable plays by TJ but I hadn't been playing in those tournaments. So, unlike you, I don't ignore context. I base my oponions on a complete picture.

Just some things to think about.

Peace

Goodie