Limit HE hand, please comment...

Hi everyone,


This hand took place last weekend at Foxwoods. Limit Hold'em tourney. 120 players, total chip count was T235000. Paid top 18, although "real" money was in top 6 (and 10-18 was the same amount). We are in the money. 2 tables left, 9 players at my table. Limits are 2000-4000 with 1000-2000 blinds. I have T11000 left.


I get AKo in early position and raise. I get called only by the BB. Flop comes K 9 4 rainbow. The BB bets out. I have played with this player the whole tourney, he is loose and I have seen him bet into a preflop raiser twice with top pair, regardless of the kicker. I don't think he'd be on a bluff of semi-bluff here. I really believe he hit the flop, somewhat.


I raise.


He reraises. I don't believe he'd be the type of player who'd say, "heck, we are going to the showdown here, let's reraise now". He has a hand. IMO, he hit either a set or 2 pair. Considering the flop, a set is more likely. I am in trouble. No way he reraises me with say KJ.


Now this leaves me with T3000. There is T19000 in the pot. If I fold I am in big trouble with my stack size. I feel i am commited so I call, he turns pocket fours and I am out.


Could anyone get away from this one? I really knew he had a better hand once he reraised me.


Comments appreciated.


Thanks,


Nicolas Fradet (ThePrince)

Can he have AK as well ? That's probably the tiebreaker.


Andy.

I did think about that.


I think with AK, once I raised on the flop, he would would have feared AA (or better)and would have geared down.

Unless he thinks you have AK too and is trying to knock you off it. Hooray for mind games !!


Andy.

but this player was not as good as that.

I'm not saying I would do it :-)

I think it would be a tough fold. You are in huge trouble if your opponent did flop a set. If your opponent has 2 pair then you have a fighting chance to suckout on him.


And of course as you and Andy have discussed there is the possibility that he has AK. I think if he does have AK then reraising with AK is perfectly okay. Just because you raised pre-flop and on the flop doesn't mean you have AA or KK.


Ken Poklitar

...that reraising is a perfectly good play if he has AK. I'm just thinking that this player would not do it(at least I did not think so). That's why I "knew" I was beat.

In my opinion, there is no way you can fold here.


- You are asked to call 3,000 to win a pot of 24,000. Since it is your last 3,000, the chips obviously are precious to you, but the pot odds is just to big. It looks like your opponent has a big hand, but who knows? He could be varying his game from earlier. He could have a perception of you as a player who can easily be bluffed (although I admit it does not look like a bluff position). He could be one of those who like to pick on the small stacks, because he knows a lot a players are afraid to go broke. He could be aware that you dont have enough to bet the hand to its end (will have half the bet on river), so its tempting to put most of it in right away once he has a decent hand. Or he could just be one of the agressive high limit players who would bet a lot of hands this way (KQ, KJs, KTs, A9s, A4s comes to mind and maybe also QJs, QTs, JTs) especially it they think you are the kind of player that consideres a fold here.


- Maybe you are beat, but big laydowns like this shouldnt be done after only playing one day with your opponent. You dont know him well enough by far. I personally folded KK before flop in the 2,500 PL wsop last year against a player I didnt know. The hand just couldnt be any good after the heavy action. The player turned out to be the worst player I saw on my trip and of course didnt have AA :-)


- You already are in the money, and wont get more money before you move up conciderably. This is no time to play it safe.


- The blinds are coming to you very soon and if you fold here, you are left with almost nothing (1 BB + 1 SB !)


The Balrog

forget all other factors...if you KNOW you are beat,just fold and pray for a miracle hand, quick.


I can not disagree with all of the good solid reasons to call, BUT there are times when one KNOWS he is beat..act accordingly even if left with only the most slim chance of survival.

The Balrog points out, correctly, that unless you know your opponent extremely well you can't "know" you're beaten at all. There is a difference between being 80% sure you are beaten and going "I knew it !" after the event, and _really_ knowing. If you can make folds like this and not lose money in the long run considering the times you fold a winner getting 8-1 pot odds - you're a hell of a player.


You weren't to know this, but for future reference, if "The Balrog" is who I think it is, I personally believe that there is no better tournament Hold-Em player in Europe.


Andy.

Thanks for the nice words, Andy!


Jan