How lucky are you?

[Dallara]

I was sifting through some of my poker tracker stats today and started wondering about whether I'm getting lucky or not much in my SNG play (bad beats will do that to you). So, I thought I would post some of my win%s with good starting hands and see how they compare to other players.

I have a modest size DB. 93 tourneys, 4,628 hands played. Here are some stats:
Hand - Hands Dealt - Hands Dealt/Total Hands - Win%
AA - 19 - 1/243 - 89.5%
KK - 19 - 1/243 - 84.2%
QQ - 18 - 1/257 - 83.3%
JJ - 17 - 1/272 - 58.8%
TT - 21 - 1/220 - 42.8%
AKs - 12 - 1/385 - 91.6%
AKo - 43 - 1/107 - 76.8%
AQs - 17 - 1/272 - 70.6%
AQo - 43 - 1/107 - 62.8%
AJs - 15 - 1/308 - 46.3%
AJo - 43 - 1/107 - 48.8%

Any pocket pair, you should get 1/220 hands, so I'm getting a few too few really good hands, but probably not an unuaual amount too low. What strikes me is how bad TT and AJ perform. What do other people's stats look like?

[pshreck]

I cant believe how often you are winning with queens... that is extremely high.

[adanthar]

This is through 30K SNG/MTT hands:
AA - 144 - 77.08% (nothing like a 7 for 15 stretch)
KK - 136 - 79.41%
QQ - 138 - 75.36%
JJ - 124 - 75.00% (I play jacks very strong most of the time)
TT - 139 - 65.47%
AKs- 84 - 70.24%
AKo- 293 - 64.16%
AQs- 96 - 59.38%
AQo- 280 - 60.71%
AJs- 115 - 49.37%
AJo- 263 - 47.15%

This data is actually somewhat useful just to chart your big runs across 10K hand samples, but 5K isn't gonna get you anywhere.

[reecelights]

41,968 hands.

Note: I play mostly Pot Limit, so you get more callers of Big hands at lower levels as an EP Pot Bet is less than 4xBB. I.e.: Level 1: Blinds 10/15. Pot Bet=55. Not uncommon to get 4 or 5 callers.

AA - 165 - 86.06% [Hey, what's up with that? 40 times fewer than KK?]
KK - 205 - 79.51%
QQ - 196 - 69.90%
JJ - 180 - 62.78%
TT - 203 - 61.08%
AKs - 118 - 66.95%
AKo - 420 - 61.90%
AQs - 119 - 59.66%
AQo - 354 - 54.24%
AJs - 122 - 52.46%
AJo - 377 - 51.99%

With AKs, how are you 91%? Your AKs does better than AA. Less fold equity in PL, but is this number low for me? Or is your win% high and your Avg/Hand low?

[reecelights]

PS...I found a printout from 33,000 hands...

Almost all within 0.5%, most notable changes are QQ and TT which have dropped 1.5% and 2.2%. AKo and AJs have gone up 1.3% and 1.4%.

Also, my 88 and 99 have remained above 50%

[stupidsucker]

30+3 NL 39,291 hands (818 games) My roi is terrible for this run (18.03) yet my winning % for the premiums is looking pretty normal, maybe even above average.

AA - 191 - 86.39%
KK - 207 - 81.64%
QQ - 177 - 76.84%
JJ - 178 - 71.91%
TT - 166 - 63.25%
AKs - 136 - 74.26%
AKo - 356 -68.26%
AQs - 119 - 57.14%
AQo - 358 - 57.54%
AJs - 109 - 51.38%
AJo - 359 - 42.34%

[reecelights]

I think a lot of this has to do with your impression of hands and how you play them.

My ATo used to have a higher win% than my AJs until I started backing off of it.

For a while my AKs was lower than my AQs until I started playing it more aggressively, rather than passively limping, and waiting for it to hit something.

[Dallara]

Oddly, I was 16-0 with QQ until the last couple days, when I bubbled out with it twice. Once against A-9, once against JJ that hit a set of Jacks. I guess I shouldn't complain.

Reecelights - I think I've just been lucky with AKs, but I do play it pretty aggressively. In contrast, AJ is a net loser for me, but I think that I'm too passive with it. I will often raise with it and fold to a bet if I don't flop anything. Maybe I will try to mix it up some more or limp with it more often.

[LinusKS]

71,689 hands, 1624 sngs.

HAND__#OBS___WIN%___EXPECT#__DIF_____DIF%____WEIGH TED
AA____315____83.1746____323____-8____-0.0247____-665.3968
AKs____203____74.8768____215____-12____-0.0558____-898.5216
AKo____649____71.4946____645____4____0.0062____285 .9784
AQs____230____67.8261____215____15____0.0697____10 17.3915
AQo____651____60.6759____645____6____0.0092____364 .0554
AJs____199____56.2814____215____-16____-0.0744____-900.5024
KK____307____84.0391____323____-16____-0.0495____-1344.6256
QQ____330____77.8788____323____7____0.0216____545. 1516
JJ____349____63.8968____323____26____0.0804____166 1.3168
TOTAL__________________________6____-0.0170____64.8473

The "weighted" is an attempt to weight by value of hand, but I don't think I did it right. Help would be appreciated.