Moronic River raise with trips?

[Lmn55d]

Party 2/4. I limp utg with A9s, 2 limpers and BB raises, all call. Flop is AA8, BB bets, I call, everyone else folds. Rag turn,, he bets I call. Rag river, he bets I raise. Stupid raise?

[jayrutz2]

Huh?

[prayformojo]

Maybe I'm confused. Don't you have the best hand? I don't just mean you're probably ahead. I mean you have the best possible hand. AA would be the absolute nuts, but that hand is impossible. So unless the "rags" weren't rags at all, but were cards over 9 that could conceivably give BB a better boat, you can't be beat. Heads up on the river, how can you not bet, raise, and cap this?

For that matter, how could you not raise the turn?

[Lmn55d]

Sorry for those who already posted, the flop was AA8...bring back the goddamn converter!!!

[jayrutz2]

Raise the turn, bet out the river...given how you played it, river bet is fine Putting him on A kicker vs PP is WAY to much credit I think...

[Lmn55d]

doesn't the range of hand I beat compared to the range of hands that beat me have to be a 2:1 ratio to make a raise profitable since I lose 2 if i'm beat but only lose gain one when ahead??

[MCS]

Yes, if you raise, you need to be confident you're ahead well more than half the time (this is kinda imprecise, but it's a generality). The thing is, you should be confident about that here.

You should have raised the turn. If he 3-bets you maybe then you think about check-calling the river. I would raise the turn and then bet the river.

[Lmn55d]

how is raising the turn here better than raising the river? Wouldn't it be easier for him to get away from a worse hand on the turn than on the river?

[Shillx]

No it really depends on the player. If the villian will pay off with QQ then the raise is fine. If he will dump any non-ace hand to the raise, then it is foolish. I would be very careful making this raise against a good player or a weak-tight player.

Brad

[RichHarden]

Why did you not raise earlier?

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not raise earlier?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it achieve? What will the villian do if he has QQ? AK?

Brad

[RichHarden]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why did you not raise earlier?

[/ QUOTE ]

What does it achieve? What will the villian do if he has QQ? AK?

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

You make a good point, so would you suggest calling down on every street and not raising at all?

[Lmn55d]

Hmm, well lets look at this from a more mathematical perspective. A typical party player might raise preflop here with AJ-AK, 99-AA, kq, kj...maybe something like that. Considering that I have an ace and there are two on the flop here are the possible combos: AJ: 4 AQ:4 AK:4 99:3 TT: 6 JJ:6 KK:6 KQ: 16 KJ:16. I'm assuming most players wouldn't bet the flop and turn with KQ/KJ here and they would definitely fold to a raise. So I am ahead of 21 combos, behind 12...so the ratio is 7:4 which is NOT better than the 2:1 I would need to raise here (assuming he calls with everything I beat and 3bets everything that beats me. OF course my analysis isn't exact (he could raise preflop with 77 or 44 who knows...) but it seems that a raise is, in fact, incorrect. ANy comments on this?

[Lmn55d]

If for example, a typical player checks the river 20% of the time he has something like KK instead of betting...this changes results.

[Shillx]

It really depends on the player. For example: If he is weak-tight, then raising makes no sense at all.

Brad

[Lmn55d]

of course, but I just sat down and had no read at all on this player.

[jayrutz2]

If you raise the flop, you will get a MUCH cheaper read on him. If he has A with a big kicker, he will 3 bet you, in which case I go to check call mode on turn and river. If he calls, I bet out turn and put him hard on a PP or an A with crappy kicker. A LOT of pre-flop raiser would bet out any pocket pair on this board, he asking if you have an A and I happy to emphatically tell him I do...

The reason the turn and river are so tough, and you are running to get the math right, is you missed a critical chance to get more info on the flop...

[Sarge85]

I'm raising the flop.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm raising the flop.

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By raising the flop, wouldn't that make your opponent slow down earlier than you'd like??? I can't see this play as being the one that wins the most bets.

[Fat Nicky]

The only information you could be looking for here is if the villain has an A with a bigger kicker. This is unlikely, which is why I think it's a bad idea to raise the flop, because in the likely case that he doesn't have an A, he slows down when you raise, which causes your hand to lose value because you don't collect as many bets on the turn and river where the bets are bigger.

Also, If you raise the flop, chances are, if your opponent has an A, he will smoothcall your raise, and wait for the turn to pop you. In this case, what did your flop raise accomplish?

Basically, I think slowplaying waiting for the turn or river to raise is more positive EV than raising the flop to gain information.