a flush draw from the BB - Live 100 NL 1-1-2

[brick]

You’re in the BB with Qd Jd and have a short-stack or $65. You have a tight image at this table.
Five players call and you complete for $2 more.

The flop is Kd 9c 7d.

You bet $10.

How do you feel about it?

[amoeba]

uh....pretty good?

[brick]

So, you get 3 callers. $50 pot.

You have $50 left.

Turn: 8s

What the best move?

[dmk]

your chips vacationing to the middle of the table for the duration of the hand

[brick]

My gut feeling is going all-in here is a –EV play. You will usually be called in one spot and when that happens you are not happy. You make the most money when everyone folds or when everyone calls.

EV of betting $50.

If Everyone folds 10% of the time. . $50

1 caller 60% of the time.
13 outs will give me a win about 27% of the time.
(.27 x 100 + .73 x -50) = $-9.5

2 callers 20% of the time.
13 outs will give me a win about 24% of the time.
(.24 x 150 + .76 x -50) = $-2

3 callers 10% of the time.
13 outs will give me a win about 22% of the time.
(.22 x 200 + .78 x -50) = $5

(.1 x 50) + (.6 x -9.5) + (.2 x -2) + (.1 x 5)
5 + -8.9 + -1.8 + .5 =

Total EV = $-5.2



I opted to make a $20 bet because I believe it has will tend to:
-Decrease the loss when you get one caller.
-Increase the number of times you get 3 callers.
-The 10% chance to win without a fight doesn’t go down too much.

EV of my $20 bet. (not taking in to account possible raises an re-raises)

If Everyone folds 8% of the time. $50

1 caller 42% of the time.
13 outs will give me a win about 27% of the time.
(.27 x 70+ .73 x -20) = $4.3

2 callers 30% of the time.
13 outs will give me a win about 24% of the time.
(.24 x 90 + .76 x -20) = $6.4

3 callers 20% of the time.
13 outs will give me a win about 22% of the time.
(.22 x 110 + .78 x -20) = $8.6

(.08 x 50) + (.42 x 4.3) + (.3 x 6.4) + (.2 x 8.6)

4 + 1.8 + 1.9 + 1.72 = 17.52

Total EV = $17.52


Anyway, I bet $20 but UTG made it $50. Not cool.
Then the 2 LP players both called. Nice.
I called and my diamond came on the river.

[creedofhubris]

When I have a tight image and a big draw from the BB, I check/raise. Big. Not all-in, mind you, but I raise the pot. That usually wins the hand right there.

Given that you led out, I think your turn "blocking" bet was about right.

[dmk]

...you bet out half your chips on a draw...either put them all-in or fold. its shitty when villian calls the turn and a blank hits the river, forcing you to either a) check/fold the river, essentially forfeitting the pot (and half of your stack that you put in the middle), or b) bluffing at the river, in which case a semi-bluff would have been better since a call can still give you the pot.

sorry, but i don't like betting 2/5 of my stack just to be put into worse situations later...if you're not comfortable putting all your chips in here, then check/fold.