advice needed

[JJKillian]

New user and first time poster

I have used the guide at the beginning of this forum as a nice base to start with. Worked from the $10's to the $20's to the $30's with many learning experiences along the way.

I followed the 30x buyin rule that was proposed here and thank god for that. One win away from moving to the $50's I learned what standard deviation is all about. 1 for last 18 on k/k. 1 for last 15 flopping trips. So I start again back again in the 10's.

Here are a few of the problems I am having problems with.

1. How far do you take your high pp (q/q, k/k, a/a) with a good board? For example. k/k flop is 3h 7d 9d raise 3-5x bb coming in. turn is 10s. Bet pot and get called. River is qc. Bet pot(which puts me all in a loot of times with 40% rule). I have lost a lot to two pair 9/10, trips, 10/8 suited. I have also won a lot like that with people on draws or j/j 10/10 etc. At what point do you think you might be behind and is that river bet the right bet?

2. Floping a strong hand and the nuts. Trips/weaker flush/straight/full house. I have lost on these hands by slow playing them to try to squeeze out as much money as possible on them. Example you limp in late position with k/js and 4 callers total on 30bb lvl(2). You flop the flush. To avoid the unsuited but right suit ace you bet aggressively. And everyone folds. You make 120 with your flush. Right play? or bet 1/2 pot to build a pot and let others chase hopefully, but then your giving the ace the right pot adds. Which is right play? This is only one example don’t want this hand necessarily torn apart, just want to know how do you squeeze money out of your hand and yet still not slow play something and get put out of sng or tour.

3. I have read posts on this a lot but will ask anyway. You limp in ep with j/j flop comes 2h 6s 10d. Is there anyway not to bet this aggressively on turn (rag) and river (rag) and not avoid the trips/two pair?

4. Biggest question. Multi table tournament. This question baffles me because so much of poker is based on math. If you get all your chips in the middle with q/q vs a/k 2 times in a tournament your mathematically out. Guess I am looking for pointers on how to survive tournaments and yet not give up my aggressive play. I am not saying that pushing q/q is necessarily the right play. I have actually found I don't like to push q/q or k/k because a/k will call you so much then catch an ace. Prefer to bet a decent amt preflop with kings/queens and see if no ace/king on board. Then push. Have lost a few times to an ace on turn or river when I push off the bat think that would have been avoided if I pushed after flop. In an sng oh well, reload. Far along in a tournament that’s a different story.

All of these examples are made based on no read of players or notes.

Long post and thanks for your answers and advice in advance


JJ

[chill888]

[ QUOTE ]
New user and first time poster

I have used the guide at the beginning of this forum as a nice base to start with. Worked from the $10's to the $20's to the $30's with many learning experiences along the way.

I followed the 30x buyin rule that was proposed here and thank god for that. One win away from moving to the $50's I learned what standard deviation is all about. 1 for last 18 on k/k. 1 for last 15 flopping trips. So I start again back again in the 10's.



[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I couldn't read beyond this part of your post:

Frankly I totally disbelieve you are 1 for 15 when flopping trips and 1 for 18 with KK. I doubt you are even close to those stats.

BUT, in the interest of friendliness, let's assume it's true. Then you are just really unlucky. Relax.


gl

[spentrent]

[ QUOTE ]
4. Biggest question. Multi table tournament. This question baffles me because so much of poker is based on math. If you get all your chips in the middle with q/q vs a/k 2 times in a tournament your mathematically out. Guess I am looking for pointers on how to survive tournaments and yet not give up my aggressive play. I am not saying that pushing q/q is necessarily the right play. I have actually found I don't like to push q/q or k/k because a/k will call you so much then catch an ace. Prefer to bet a decent amt preflop with kings/queens and see if no ace/king on board. Then push. Have lost a few times to an ace on turn or river when I push off the bat think that would have been avoided if I pushed after flop. In an sng oh well, reload. Far along in a tournament that’s a different story.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree that you are mathematically out with QQ vs AK. Probability emerges over the long run, but luck rules in the here and now. Yeah, you're gonna lose that coin flip some time, but that's not the only factor in play.

If you're holding QQ and acting before a solid player holding AK -- who's not desperately shortstacked -- your push is bursting at the seams with fold equity. Hell, it's similar to -- but better than -- a semi-bluff, because if he calls, you're still a winner half the time.

Edit: Then again, if you're in the later stages of the tourney, you're only gonna get called by AA/KK. So I'd feel more comfortable pushing late into the solid player's raise.

[JJKillian]

Wasn’t really looking for a flame, was looking for something a little more productive.

I chalked it up to bad luck. What else could it be? I learned of this board through "The Psychology of poker". Really liked the book. I have taken his advice on these hands and went back through many of them.

There are several of them I could have played differently. All the trips but 1 were pp. The one that wasn't was 5/6. Un-raised pot and someone had a/6s. I learned from it and went on. The real bad luck wasn't losing on them it was luck I created for someone else. 8 of the trips were on straight/flush type boards. I bet to aggressively and lost to flush/straight. A few others was me slow playing them and getting drawn out on. Once you take those out and add back in the times you’re just going to get unlucky in the first place and I bet the odds work odd close to what they should be.

The kings well I will still play most of those hands the same way. Yeah it is unreal but it is the fact. I will send ya the hands if ya wish. What I did learn from all the kings is two things. First how to fold them. I have done it often lately and I was right a great majority of the time in doing so. I really don't think you can learn that without the beats. Second, is over playing them in lower limit sngs vs ak. I think the turn and river beats would have been avoided by raising 3-5x bb then pushing on a flop without an ace. Think most of those people would have folded the a/k with those kinds of flops, but will push preflop.

So I am not here to tell bad beat stories even though they are. In the long run I learned a ton from all those beats mainly because of that one book, and its section on analyzing past play and what could have been done different.

JJ

[JJKillian]

I understand most of the terms used on these boards. I don't understand fold equity. What is that?

I worded my original post wrong I think. What I meant was q/q vs a/ko is 56.99%. So if you get back to back q/q vs a/k wouldn't you lose one of them mathmatically? Maybe I am thinking wrong. Guess what I am really asking is should you avoid all ins with q/q's (even if you know for a fact someone had a/k) if your trying to make the money/final table/whatever in a large tournament? And if so where is that avoidance barrier? a/ks, q/q, k/k?

JJ

[pshreck]

[ QUOTE ]
1 for last 18 on k/k. 1 for last 15 flopping trips.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry to beat a dead horse, but this is nearly mathematically impossible. I actually have to assume that you are folding a lot of these hands before the river, because im not actually assuming you are losing those hands 95% of the time at showdown.

[lorinda]

Guess I am looking for pointers on how to survive tournaments and yet not give up my aggressive play.

Your aggressive play is WHY you survive.

If you have too many all-in shootouts, you will lose.
Therefore you avoid this by doing anything in your power to win the pot before this happens.

Edit: Be aware that this post is clearly over-simplified to illustrate a point.

Lori

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]

I worded my original post wrong I think. What I meant was q/q vs a/ko is 56.99%. So if you get back to back q/q vs a/k wouldn't you lose one of them mathmatically? Maybe I am thinking wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at it like this:

Assume you have 3000 chips and your opponent has 9000 chips. I'm going to deal you QQ and him AK and you're both going to go all in. We're going to do this twice.

There is a 50% chance you'll lose all your chips the first time and a 50% chance you'll even up with him. The second time, there's a 50% chance you'll lose all your chips and a 50% chance you'll take the rest of his. So 75% of the time you'll be out and 25% of the time you'll quadruple up and take all his chips.

Now reverse the starting chips. An astounding 75% of the time you'll bust him and have 12,000 chips and 25% of the time you'll be out.

It works because to get the probability of 2 independent events happening, you multiply the probability of each. So 50% of the time you'll win QQ vs AK. 25% of the time you'll win twice in a row. 12.5% of the time you'll win 3 times in a row. 6.25% of the time you'll win four times in a row. Etc etc etc.