Couldn't figure out what to do (nut flush + overcard draw)

[mythrilfox]

I apologize for the sloppy post - hand coverter seems to be out of commission.

Hero ($100) UTG
Villain ($100) BB

Dealt to Hero [ Qc Ac ]
Hero calls [$2].

Normally I am not crazy about playing AQs out of position, but I felt this was a relatively weak table and if there were any decent-sized raises and I didn't have position on the raiser, I would let it drop.

MP1 calls [$2]
MP2 calls [$2]
SB completes
BB (Villain) raises [$3] (to $5 straight)

Now I still had a pretty good hand and I had position on the raiser, so I decide to go ahead and call. I have no notes on Villain, he just sat down and he doesn't have any logs on pokertracker.

Hero calls.
MP1 calls.
MP2 calls.
SB folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7c, 7h, 8c ]
Villain bets [$20].

Now I have quite a predicament. I have two overcards and a flush draw. He's potting it in first position, and without any observation of his play it's difficult to know whether to give him respect ... or to treat him as I would an average online player. At this point he either has 99-AA or two overcards. A flopped boat is possible, but I would expect most everyone to check a full house in that position since they essentially have the board monopolized.

As I see it, I have 4 options:
1. Raise a reasonable amount, say to $50. Something of a semi-bluff. The problem I have with this, though, is if he has overcards he can get off his hand very easily. But if he has me beat at this point he will almost assuredly push (maybe not with 99-TT, but JJ+ would be well-advised to push, since there was no preflop raise. A push with TT is also not unreasonable). If he pushes I have pot odds to call by that point, so by raising $50 I achieve the same outcome as if I pushed all-in, but put less pressure on him.
2. Raise all-in. I don't really like this play either, though, because it screams of a semi-bluff. If I were in his position I'd probably call with something as low as 99. My main predicament is that I am even money against 99-JJ, huge favorite against any two overcards, and big dog to QQ-AA. Moreover, he will not lay down JJ-AA under any circumstances since I showed so little aggression preflop. Thus the semi-bluff aspect of the play is gone against those hands.
3. Fold. I just couldn't bring myself to fold two overcards and the nut flush draw, but after looking at it more and more I kinda wish that's what I'd done.
4. Call. That's what I did. I called to see what developed on the turn, hoping, of course, for a check and a free card on 5th. It's hard to get a free card if he has me beat at this point since I only called on the flop.

The rest of the hand is relatively unimportant, but ...

Hero calls [$20].
MP1 folds.
MP2 folds.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ts ]
Villain bets [$25].
Hero calls [$25].

I was getting over 4:1 on my money

** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
Villain is all-In.
Hero is all-In.

So I made the flush, but it's possible he filled up on fourth or fifth. At the time I felt that I played the hand so weakly that he would probably have pushed with a good range of hands, even a desperate push with overcards (depending on what type of player it is).

Of course, I thought about it afterwards and didn't like this call at all, because by pushing WHEN A FLUSH CARD COMES he's basically saying it didn't scare him, meanwhile I was practically broadcasting I was on a flush draw throughout the entire hand.

Anyway, I thought the plays on fourth and fifth (though poor) were pretty clear-cut. I had no clue what to do on the flop, though. Any help is appreciated

[amoeba]

well, I don't think villain got a 7 or pocket 8s so on the flop I would have probably raised all in.

I figure him for an overpair and hopefully its not QQ or AA.

and I might have some folding equity if he's holding TT, JJ.

He doesn't know that you don't have 7. In fact your all in raise looks like a fish who made a mad PF call and managed to flop trips.

the way you played it, you really couldn't fold the river.

He probably filled up but I don't think its 100% that the river push means he filled up.

[Tilt]

I think fold is a very good option on the flop. When the board is paired and the guy is broadcasting large PP, you have to discount your draw. One of the clubs is not an out (and you dont know which one).

2nd best option is pushing all-in right there. Thats the only play that gives you a draw + fold equity.

A large but not all-in raise might earn you a free card, but when the board is paired it might not do you any good.

Worst option is calling I think, but I guess you figured that out. As easy as it is to post that you should push or fold, I think we all end up calling hands like this sometimes and kick ourselves later.

[Raiser]

I don't like a flop call here.

Push or fold. You can't raise any less than a push without pot committing yourself anyway. I would push here, but if you aren't comfortable with that then folding is next best IMO.

[schwza]

yeah, i like a push. you're only ~25% to win against trips, but you're in fine shape against even KK (close to even money). push & hope.

[BobboFitos]

WOW. People are advocating a fold. I dont think so - just because he made it THREE MORE DOLLARS preflop doesn't really necessitate a big hand. In fact I wouldn't really give him credit there for a big hand.

Raising the flop is certainly an attractive option, but it's a little messy in terms of pot committment. If he has bet 25$ of his 100$ stack to essentially win your 100 while you are essentially betting 100 to win 25, he's making a good bet; that is, not committing himself whereas you are committing yourself. Anyways, just some quick math...

4 players on the flop who paid 5$ each plus the small blind who completed/folded, so ~22 minus rake. He is betting 20. A raise all in would be 20 to call plus 75 more, so he will be laid a price of 75 (if everyone else folds) to win 132$.
So really although moving all in isn't a perfect bet, it's a slight but solid overbet.

If you think this screams of a draw, (which it does...) and thus he would call with any pair or AK, (which has you to 4flush + 1 overcard...) you still would be pos EV on the play given the dead calls. But you think you can do better?

Certainly folding is wrong as we can label it 0 Ev, and moving in has the folding equity + ~50% chance of winning anyways, so raising (all in) is much more attractive than folding.


As for calling, I don't see why this has gotten lambasted. You have position on the raiser; there are other people to act (who MAY have a 7, in which case your 50%ish pot equity drop to 35%) plus you might get someone in with 9t or 89 or another middling hand to trail along, fattening your odds.

You can re-evaluate on the turn... Everyone folded, and when the Ten hits, and he fires another 25, this is an easy call. He's pricing you in.

On the river it's another easy call, although he might have a full boat, more often he just has some other strong (but not as strong as a flush) hand that just wanted to get the rest of the money in on the end.

This is Holdem, not Omaha; it's ok to draw with paired boards. Not optimal, but not suicide.


Anyways, I prolly would've made a mmove, it's 6handed, (I think, I hope I didn't breeze over that) and by moving in draw or not you're still putting your neck out there, he needs a hand to call. (or if he ha something funky like QJh we welcome a call..) Although it seems you played it passively I really dont think your line was bad. If it didn't work out it didn't work out. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[mythrilfox]

Thanks for the replies. I know I had to call on the river the way I played it, and I did. He had pocket jacks for a jacks full house. T.T