value bet over pair on river against straight/2pair?

[profpeebody]

Game: 3/6 @ Commerce

Reads: Not much, I just sat down in bb and this was the 4th hand. ~6 people seeing a flop.

Pre-Flop:
I have Q/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif in cut-off.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, mp1 raises, mp2 calls, mp3 folds, I 3 bet, button calls, sb folds, bb folds, UTG+1 calls, mp1 calls, mp2 calls.

Flop:
10/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/club.gif 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
UTG+1 checks, mp1 checks, mp2 checks, I bet, button calls, UTG+1 calls, mp1 folds, mp2 calls

Turn:
5/images/graemlins/club.gif
UTG+1 checks, mp2 checks, I bet, button calls, UTG+1 folds, mp2 folds

River:
3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Me and Button
Bet or check?

At this point I'm afraid of the button, he could have been slow playing a straight on the flop but I was putting him on two pair. I noticed low-limit players at commerce love to play 1gappers like 6-8 or 9-7 (or anything that makes a straight). I doubted that the turn or river helped him. So I thought he might have flopped two pair with a 9-7 or 9-10, but then why wouldn't he have raise the flop or turn? I didn't know if he was loose player but it scared me that he cold-called 3 bets preflop and hung around to the river. I figured I was beat. Should I bet or check-call? If I bet and get raised, I feel like I have to call, no?

Please proceed to rip my game apart.

[Fat Nicky]

Why are you so sure you're beat? No one has raised indicating they have a strong hand, and I doubt the river card improved anyones hand. Bet the river.

[Fnord]

Bet, call a raise (and remember to cry.)

Pot is too big to fold and you don't want him checking behind with a worse hand.

He cold called 3 pre-flop. This isn't the sort of guy to check/call.

[Entity]

This is a ridiculously easy river bet. Many hands call that you beat; few raise that you don't.

Rob

[slogger]

You're seeing monsters under the bed. This guy coldcalled three bets preflop - 99% of the time this means he is a terrible player.

Terrible players call down with any pair and any draw. True that some terrible players play big hands way too passively, but even if that's what has happened here, he is unlikely to raise you on the end.

Bet this 100% of the time, and expect to be called by something like JT or 76 or 44. If he raises, you need to call (you're getting 14.5-to-1 on this call - if he's bluffing or just hit a pair on the river once out of every 15.5 times he tries this, then it's an automatic call), although it's very likely you're behind when a guy who has played it this passively so far raises on the end.

[profpeebody]

I guess I was just being a sissy.

[shant]

Since this took place at Commerce, the guy could be calling with 8x or 6x or any pair on that board. If there was no raise on the turn, I'm not afraid of anything when that blank drops.