Tricky Nuanced Hand

[theBruiser500]

Blinds 100/200, I have A9o

UTG: thebruiser (2440 in chips)
Button: 011180 (2074 in chips)
SB: serb2127 (7091 in chips)
BB: ChubbyMan (1895 in chips)

This is the $160 double shootout, final table. Winner take all (which I think affects how to play this hand, no?). Table images aren't too clear cut. I played quite tight for a while but had just opened up since I became a shortstack the last 5-10 minutes. I'm not auto raising on the button or SB though when folded to me. I had just raised my last hand and all folded. 01180 is playing a little loose, serb tightish, and chubby medium.

I have a lot of options, fold, raise to 500, 600, 700, all in. What is your play this hand, with what plan?

[Chief911]

This is a fold/raise hand. Clearly. I think 4 handed I'm prone to push here.

The only other thing I consider is a min-raise. Depending on whether a min-raise that turned out to be AA or KK took someone out recently, I love to use the power of min-raise to take a mediocre hand and steal the blinds.

I think when it came down to it, I'd push.

Nick

[schwza]

i'd make it 600 and call a push (unless it's a multi-way pot). if you push now, you'll likely get played with only when you're behind, and the blinds are small enough relative to the stacks that that's not too appealing. but if you just open-raise, you might convince somebody with A5 that now is the time to take a shot. at first i was going to suggest making it 500 to go, but you really don't want to get cold-called here.

if this were not winner-take-all, i think i'd just push out of a lack of desire to get involved in a marginal decision later. not sure if that's sound reasoning though.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
i think i'd just push out of a lack of desire to get involved in a marginal decision later. not sure if that's sound reasoning though.



[/ QUOTE ]

that's typically a reason to fold


FWIW, I limp here on a passive table, raise to 500 on a tight table, fold on an aggressive table...since I assume most online shorthanded games have gotten fairly aggressive, I probably fold here.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think i'd just push out of a lack of desire to get involved in a marginal decision later. not sure if that's sound reasoning though.



[/ QUOTE ]

that's typically a reason to fold


FWIW, I limp here on a passive table, raise to 500 on a tight table, fold on an aggressive table...since I assume most online shorthanded games have gotten fairly aggressive, I probably fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm surprised you're saying to muck. this is a pretty big hand when you're only ~12 bb's deep, 4-handed. there are 78 hands that have you in a bad spot (AA-99 + AK-AT), which is about 1/17 for any particular opponent. that means there's better than a 14/17 chance that you're ahead of/coinflip with everybody, and the 450 in the pot is ~20% of your stack.

i think folding would be bad in a regular tournament and very bad in a winner-take-all.

[theBruiser500]

SossMan, folding feels tight to me. Could you elaborate on your thoughts here?

[theBruiser500]

I am putting up 600:300 (or whatever I bet) here on a marginal hand UTG. I think this hand is tricker than it looks at first.

[La Brujita]

Bruiser, I had started to respond but stoped because I couldn't decide on the correct play.

The thing about raising and then calling a push is sure you might get KQs or A-5 to come over the top but you might get a whole range of pocket pairs to do the same as well as A-T or A-J which might fold to the raise.

My choice is to push but I feel a bit dirty after doing so.

[SossMan]

Bruiser (and schwza),

Let me qualify this by saying that I don't play online, so my read of an unknown table is based on what I read on here. (a little too loose, a little too aggressive)

The reason folding would be correct on an aggressive SH table is that a reraise puts you in a bad spot of probably having to fold. I like a raise on a tight table because a reraise pretty well tells you that you are likely dominated. A limp on a passive table would allow me to play a flop most of the time with position on my likely opponents.

You said that you were unsure of your read on the table dynamic, other than you had just raised and they all folded the last hand...I try to have a hand that I don't mind a reraise if I'm going to raise back to back hands.

I'm sure I could be convinced otherwise.

[Lurshy]

I bet out 450 as a semi-steal.

If I take it down great. If someone comes over-the-top of my UTG raise, I can lay down. Based on the read of with the exception of the button no one is loose. If the button comes over-the-top, you have a decision. If there is a caller(s) I have confidence in my post flop play/decision making.

A9 is one of those shorthanded hands, that I have little trouble betting, but would rarely call with.

[BK_]

i think pushing really sucks. there are 300 blinds to pick up, and you are 3 people behind you. you arnt getting worse hands to call you either, except maybe something like qk from the large stack. my options are to raise to 500 or fold. either way, im not happy about the situation. i like raising more if i think the button is far less likely to call me than the sb or bb, which is likely the case.

if you raise and he pushes in, i think his range of hands is mid ace to AK, 44-AA, with a10-AK and 77-AA being weighted alot heavier. so i fold

[theBruiser500]

For people who say to raise, it sounds like you've all chosen random amounts to raise to without a reason. I think it makes a difference what you raise to. Want to explain your raise size choice?

[ZeeJustin]

I make my standard raise here (which is usually 3x BB, but not always), and fold to a shove.

[theBruiser500]

Here are a couple more thoughts too, a raise to 600 means I'm putting up 600 to win 300, it seems very close if it will work 2 times out of 3. But also, my first 600 chips are a lot more valuable then the next 300 chips I win, more than twice as valuable (that's right isn't it, correct touranment theory?).

[UMTerp]

[ QUOTE ]
But also, my first 600 chips are a lot more valuable then the next 300 chips I win, more than twice as valuable (that's right isn't it, correct touranment theory?).

[/ QUOTE ] With a prize ladder, that's obviously not true. Though I guess it's reasonable to assume that you'd get some sort of save if you outlasted one or two more guys, so maybe it does apply to some extent.

I don't think that applies in the winner-take-all format, though I could be wrong. I'm pretty sure each tournament chip is worth Prize/total chips, regardless of how many you have.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think i'd just push out of a lack of desire to get involved in a marginal decision later. not sure if that's sound reasoning though.



[/ QUOTE ]

that's typically a reason to fold


FWIW, I limp here on a passive table, raise to 500 on a tight table, fold on an aggressive table...since I assume most online shorthanded games have gotten fairly aggressive, I probably fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm surprised you're saying to muck. this is a pretty big hand when you're only ~12 bb's deep, 4-handed. there are 78 hands that have you in a bad spot (AA-99 + AK-AT), which is about 1/17 for any particular opponent. that means there's better than a 14/17 chance that you're ahead of/coinflip with everybody, and the 450 in the pot is ~20% of your stack.

i think folding would be bad in a regular tournament and very bad in a winner-take-all.

[/ QUOTE ]

my mistake - should read "the 300 in the pot is ~15% of your stack."

anyway, i still think folding is a bad decision. consider this hypothetical: suppose the other three knew what you have. they call every time they're ahead and fold every time they're behind (or in a coinflip). furthermore, assume they have a 80% chance of winning if they're ahead (i.e., we treat both A9 v TT and A9 v AA as 20/80). for simplicity, you must push or fold. which should you do?

this is pretty clearly much less favorable than pushing in the real world. there is a 17% chance (1-(16/17)^3) that you get called. in those cases you play for an average of 2100 chips (b/c some stacks are shorter than yours). so your EV of pusing is 0.17 * ((0.8 * -2100) + (0.2 * 2100)) + 0.83 (300) = 35. so in this weird hypothetical, you should push.

in the real world, the situation is more favorable. you're not an 80/20 dog unless you're up against AA, and you're sometimes going to get called by A8 or worse. also sometimes AT or better will fold. pushing is right in the hypothetical, and it's more right in the actual.

(a few notes... i'm looking only at chipEV, which [it has been claimed] is the same as tournamentEV in a winner-take-all.

i've ignored away the fact that 88 will probably call, which hurts you a little. i'm also ignoring multi-way pots, and the fact that when you win an all-in you get the pot plus the blinds).

[UMTerp]

Oops, FWIW, I edited my previous post and put the paragraphs in the wrong order. I just noticed it, and now it's too late to edit. If it makes no sense, that's why.

And I still haven't decided what to do about the hand. I think I raise to 500 and fold to a push. IMO, it's too good a hand to fold 4-handed. If one of the blinds call you (I can't imagine the BB would since he's a small stack out of position, but it's possible the large stack does), you still have position to make a flop decision.

If you raise to 600, you're pricing yourself into a call if the small stack comes over you. I still want to be able to (correctly) get away from this hand if need be. I'm not feeling to good if I lose my stack here to AQ or something.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
my mistake - should read "the 300 in the pot is ~15% of your stack."

anyway, i still think folding is a bad decision. consider this hypothetical: suppose the other three knew what you have. they call every time they're ahead and fold every time they're behind (or in a coinflip). furthermore, assume they have a 80% chance of winning if they're ahead (i.e., we treat both A9 v TT and A9 v AA as 20/80). for simplicity, you must push or fold. which should you do?

this is pretty clearly much less favorable than pushing in the real world. there is a 17% chance (1-(16/17)^3) that you get called. in those cases you play for an average of 2100 chips (b/c some stacks are shorter than yours). so your EV of pusing is 0.17 * ((0.8 * -2100) + (0.2 * 2100)) + 0.83 (300) = 35. so in this weird hypothetical, you should push.

in the real world, the situation is more favorable. you're not an 80/20 dog unless you're up against AA, and you're sometimes going to get called by A8 or worse. also sometimes AT or better will fold. pushing is right in the hypothetical, and it's more right in the actual.

(a few notes... i'm looking only at chipEV, which [it has been claimed] is the same as tournamentEV in a winner-take-all.

i've ignored away the fact that 88 will probably call, which hurts you a little. i'm also ignoring multi-way pots, and the fact that when you win an all-in you get the pot plus the blinds).


[/ QUOTE ]

seems reasonable.

Ok, if pushing is better than folding, then is making a smaller raise better than pushing?
that math involves many more, possibly flawed, assumptions about ranges of hands that flat call, types of flops, and tendencies.

I wonder if raising to 3x (or whatever is standard) doesn't accomplish the same thing as pushing (or close to it in terms of FE)

[zaxx19]

I make it 550 and if someone calls take a look at a flop. If someone moves in im bailing just way too much of a chance im dominated to a 9 here; not a situation i want to be in. By raising 550 I still think you can get away from it but thats just the way I play.Also by raising 550 and bailing you'll be able to raise 550 and get played back at with a better hand later(not sure at this point in the tourney this has much value but...) Your now 2nd in chips even with 550 taken away your still breathing and have alot of play left...that being said moving in isnt horrible here Im just curious as to what others on the board think people will fold here?? Personally I think in winner takes all people would call with 8-8 and above--aq, ak, and possibly aj. Any other thoughts on what sort of folding equity an all-in has here?? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[schwza]

yeah, there's no way you could do a similar math thing to try to figure out raise vs. push.

my initial suggestion was to raise to 600 and then call a push - i'm going to switch to raise to 500 but still call a push.

i like raising to 500 instead of pushing b/c i think you can induce a mediocre hand to try to resteal some of the time. the resteal is most likely to come from the big stack, but it could also come from the small ones.

raising instead of pushing is also nice because if the action goes: you make it 500, all-in, all-in, all-in, then you know you have an easy fold.

pushing instead of raising might have the advantage that it could fold out a hand like AT or AJ, which will almost certainly push over a raise. but i think that for the most part, pretty much any hand over A9 will play with you whether you raise or push. so i agree, soss, you have nearly as much FE with a smaller raise.

i think what you add in by making it 500 are AJ and AT, some small pocket pairs, and some hands that you're ahead of. you're not going to be excited to be making the call against a push, but i think it's the right play.

the reason i don't like raising and folding to a push is that you are going to be folding in a lot of situations where you have the odds to play (or close to it), like against 77. you're also going to be folding some hands where you're ahead, like against A8.

finally, the reason i like raising to 500 instead of more is to convince the BB with JT that if pushes i'd fold.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Here are a couple more thoughts too, a raise to 600 means I'm putting up 600 to win 300, it seems very close if it will work 2 times out of 3. But also, my first 600 chips are a lot more valuable then the next 300 chips I win, more than twice as valuable (that's right isn't it, correct touranment theory?).

[/ QUOTE ]
Not in a winner-take-all tournament. Here those 300 chips you can win are worth exactly half the 600 chips you can lose.

Here are some old threads dealing with this:

Winner Take All (October 2002) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=164696&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&vc=1) (includes Fossilman reply)

Winner Take All Tourneys (February 2003) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=217283&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&vc=1)

(near) winner take all sngs (February 2004) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=526045&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1)

The "winner take all" dogma (February 2004) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=527877&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1)

Winner-take-all theory (May 2004) (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=677640&page=&view=&sb=5&o =&fpart=all&vc=1) (includes Sklansky reply)

[Ian J]

Bruiser,

I think this hand is close between fold and raise. Factors that would lead me to fold are:
-You just started the 100/200 level.
-You don't feel good about folding to a re-raise.
Factors that lead me to raise:
-Antes... are there any yet?
-If I were close to going to 200/400, I'd
definitely raise.

So, I think it's close, depending heavily on some factors you left out. All in all, I think fold is best, with a raise to 5-600 and a fold to a reraise 2nd. Pushing is 3rd, I think it offers too much risk for the small reward. I'd be more inclined to push with antes, but since they're small, not much more inclined.

[patrick dicaprio]

if you raise to 500 arent you vulnerable to someone making a play back at you if it is your intention to fold? it is tough to see how a raise to 500 will not seem like a vulnerable bet to an aggressive player so if you get played back at i would think you have to call.

My thought is that since it is winner take all you have to get lucky and doubel up to have achance and there are two other guys in the same boat. so i push and hope to steal but dont mind so much if i am called since i might be only a coinflip or better to many hands that might call. even against KK you will still win about 30% of the time or so. risky? sure but you have to gamble somewhere if you are going to win this one.

Pat

[patrick dicaprio]

if you arent going to play A9 four handed here then what else are you going to play? this is awfully tight and just because it is tricky doesnt mean you should fold in my mind since the same could be said of enough hands here that you will blind yourself off if you fold them all. i will admit though that i tend to be overly aggressive in these situations so maybe that is a leak i have. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

pat

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 100/200, I have A9o

UTG: thebruiser (2440 in chips)
Button: 011180 (2074 in chips)
SB: serb2127 (7091 in chips)
BB: ChubbyMan (1895 in chips)

[/ QUOTE ]
A lot of posters have said to raise and fold to a push, but we really need to look at who has reraised us.

Serb2127, in the small blind, was described as "tightish", so folding to his reraise is reasonable.

But folding to a reraise by ChubbyMan, in the big blind, would be unwise: since he posted, and his starting stack was 9.5xBB, it is correct for him to play a variety of hands worse than A9, and furthermore we have him covered.

What if the reraise comes from 011180, on the button? Although he was described as loose, when he puts in a reraise on the button with two players yet to act and a good chance (from his perspective) that we will call the push because we are close to pot-committed, it's very likely he has a better hand than A9. I figure that at best we are a 35:65 underdog to his range of hands when he reraises. So whether we call depends on pot odds.

Bruiser asked what the best amount to raise is if not allin. First we want to raise enough that the big blind cannot reasonably call with the intention of folding on the flop. Second we want to look at what pot odds we would face on a reraise by each opponent, since we don't want to pot-commit ourselves.

If r is the amount we raise to, then our pot odds are:

2374+r : 2074-r, to call 01180's reraise;

2640+r : 2440-r, to call Serb's reraise;

1995+r : 1895-r, to call ChubbyMan's reraise.

For example, with r=400 (minraise), our pot odds to call an allin are 1.66:1, 1.49:1, and 1.60:1 respectively.

With r=700, our pot odds to call an allin are 2.24:1, 1.92:1, and 2.26:1 respectively. Obviously if we raise this much we cannot fold to a reraise, so we'd be better off pushing at the outset.

My preference is to raise to 550. That should be enough to force ChubbyMan (in the big blind) to fold speculative hands rather than calling to see the flop. I'd expect that everyone will fold to our raise about two-thirds of the time.

If ChubbyMan raises all in (after the other two fold), we'd then call getting 1.92:1 pot odds, which is enough considering his range of reraising hands in that spot.

If Serb raises all in we can fold (pot odds would be 1.69:1).

If 011180 raises all in (and the blinds both fold), our pot odds would be 1.89:1. That's about the cutoff between folding and calling, given his range of reraising hands in my opinion. If our initial raise was any more than 550, we would have to call a reraise by 011180.

[theBruiser500]

Thanks all for the posts. Here are some more interesting calculations. If BB goes all in after I raise to 600, I get 2600:1300. Here are a couple of ranges of hands he could have:

22-AA, or AK-AT. This would be 78 combinations that put me in about 3:1, and 42 that put me in even money.

78/120(.75*-1300 + .25*2600) + 42/120(.55*-1300 + .55*2600) = -52

However adjust that hand range just a little bit to add A8-A6 and it's

78/156(.75*-1300 + .25*2600) + 42/156(.55*-1300 + .55*2600) + 36/156(.75*2600 + .25*-1300) = 335

[M.B.E.]

For the reasons stated in my earlier post, I believe a raise to 550 is better than raising to either 500 or 600.

Also, raising to 550 is better than folding, for reasons stated by Schwza.

Is raising to 550 better than pushing? I believe so, but am not totally decided. In large part I think it turns on this question: How many more hands are there that Serb will play if I raise to 550, compared to the hands he will play if I push?

If the answer is "a lot", then pushing is probably better. If the answer is "few or none", then the smaller raise is probably better.

[M.B.E.]

How did the hand turn out?

[zaxx19]

Hey look MBE actually agreed with me ..... and please do tell what happened.

[theBruiser500]

I raised to 600, BB pushed, I called, his AJ was good.